DRMSD Risk and Disaster Defined DRMSD Learning Lab

DRM-SD: Risk and Disaster Defined DRM-SD Learning Lab Freedom Hotel, Siem Reap, Cambodia 2 -4 February 2016 Prof. K. Koshy Centre for Global Sustainability Studies (CGSS) Universiti Sains Malaysia kanayathu. koshy@gmail. com

Triple Bottom Line Model - SD

Strong Sustainability Model - SD

Risk-Disaster: Game 1 ferocious, dog, boy, school, afraid, bite, road, father, community leaders, dog owner, chain, weak, house, strong, situation, car, risk, friends, happy, pole…

Risk-Disaster: Game 2 hazard, exposure unit, capacity, vulnerable, risk, impacts, disaster, coping, strategy, mitigation, great, minimise, adaptation, improved, happy…

Hazard: a potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon, or human activity that may cause injury, property damage, social and economic disruption, environmental degradation or loss of life.

Impact: the manifestation (realisation) of the destructive forces of hazards that destroy life and properties.

Exposure Units Exposure units: the sectors or groups that are impacted upon. - Stronger the coping capacity, weaker the impact -

Capacity: a combination of all the strengths and resources available within a community, society or organization that can reduce the level of risk or the effects of a disaster.

Vulnerability: the conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility (inability to withstand) of a community to the impact of hazards. (Antonym – Resilient)

Risk: the probability (likely, ‘chance’) of harmful consequences, or expected losses/damage (injuries, property, livelihood, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged, deaths) resulting from interaction between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable exposure units.

Disaster: “a serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses which exceed the capacity of exposure units to cope using only its own resources. ”

Disaster is “Realised Risk” …Risk equations =>

Risk Management 2/3 ISDR Risk Equation: Hazard x Vulnerability = Risk Capacity Realised Risk is Disaster

Risk Management 1/3 Hazard - Mitigation = Vulnerability Realised Risk is Disaster

Risk Management 3/3 Impact - Adaptation = Vulnerability Realised Risk is Disaster

Response Measures Mitigation: source ↓ & sink ↑ Adaptation: coping with consequences

Residual Risk …the Risk that still remains after all response measures…

Frequency Adaptation x 1 drier Climate variable (e. g. precipitation) wetter

Frequency x 1 Adapted (autonomously) drierr Climate variable (e. g. precipitation) wetter

Climate Change “Acceptable Frequency Risk” threshold Adapted (explicitly) x x 2 1 Adapted (autonomously) P 2 P 1 Climate variable (e. g. precipitation)

Adapted to Climate Change Adapted Frequency (explicitly) x x 2 1 Adapted (autonomously) P 2 P 1 Climate variable (e. g. precipitation)

CC Adaptation – AR 5, 2014

Vulnerability/Risk Two bridges are needed to close the vulnerability/risk gap s sa s e n si ‘Bu wth o r ’G Technical bridge al usu ons oluti s l a c i n h c Te Required by sustain able development Year Ethical bridge

SUMMARY of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005 -2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters (HFA)

Thank You http: //cgss. usm. my

LOGICAL FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS Cause - Effect Activities Few new customers + Few returning customers Restaurant not making profit Unappealing surroundings and menu + Poor marketing strategy Problem Tree Restaurant Many new customers making + profit Many returning customers Appealing surroundings and menu + Good marketing strategy Objective Tree

The Triple Bottom Line of SD