DRAFT AS OF 11 27 07 Embassy Row
DRAFT AS OF: 11. 27. 07 Embassy Row: Deal Structure November 2007 Confidential Draft
Executive Summary • We have analyzed alternative deal structures to meet the following goals – Smooth EBIT impact of earn-outs – Tie Michael Davies’ incentives to profitability – Retain Michael Davies as long as possible – Cap total earn-out exposure – Avoid paying Davies on EBITDA if we would be EBIT negative after amortization and earn-out expense • Two primary structures were analyzed – Up-front payment plus defined earn-outs tied to EBITDA ranges – Acquire 80% of the company; structure put/call on 20% • We believe an up-front payment with defined earn-outs is the more attractive structure and recommend submitting an LOI on this basis 1
Structuring Considerations Earn-outs Tied to EBITDA Ranges Structure • $20. 0 MM up-front payment • Up to $14. 5 MM in earn-outs tied to EBITDA on ER shows (Power of 10 and new shows) • 100% of earn-out paid if EBITDA target is met • 0% of earn-out paid if EBITDA is below a floor • Pro-rated if EBITDA is between floor and target • 5 year contract and an additional 2 year noncompete Accounting Considerations Acquire 80%; Put/Call on 20% • $16. 0 MM up-front payment for 80% of ER • 20% minority interest in ER’s normal share of earnings (EP Fees, modified profit participation) – Annual cash payments capped at $1. 5 MM • Put/call on remaining 20% in year 5 – Based on 7 x 20% of ER’s normal share of earnings – Capped at $18 MM – Subject to Davies remaining with SPE until that time • 5 year contract and an additional 2 year noncompete • Initial consideration largely attributed to buy-out of Power of 10 Participation, future shows, and contract/non-compete; amortized over 5 years • Earn-outs expensed • When the additional 20% is purchased, this results in a new amortizable asset that could create up to $5 MM of amortization in years 6 and beyond • Minority interest is before EBIT for ASPIRE calculations 2
Structuring Considerations Earn-outs Tied to EBITDA Ranges Pros • Simpler to account for, administer, and negotiate Acquire 80%; Put/Call on 20% • Decreases initial consideration • Minimizes near-term EBIT impact • Provides consistent incentives for Davies beginning in early years of deal life Cons • Greater initial consideration • Although profitable, EBIT would be lower in early years than under the “ 80/20” deal structure • Only economically attractive under a limited set of parameters that may not be feasible to negotiate – Requires put/call to be tied to a subset of ER-related profits – Preferable for Davies’ 20% retained interest to be tied to a subset of earnings • More complex to account for, negotiate, and administer • Will result in amortization in later years (year 6 and beyond) • Provides limited incentive in early years of deal 3
Comparable M&A Multiples: TV Production Transaction Value / Date Median Multiple ER Figures (MM) Implied Value (MM) Sales 1. 4 x $28. 6 $40. 0 EBITDA 11. 5 x $3. 4 $39. 1 EBIT 12. 9 x $3. 4 $43. 9 Average Implied Value (MM) $41. 0 Last FY EBITDA Last FY EBIT Aug-07 NBC Universal £ 175. 0 1. 8 x na na Aug-07 Jul-07 Objective Productions Marathon Group Prospect Pictures All 3 Media De Agostini DCD Media £ 50. 0 1 € 250. 0 £ 7. 1 2. 2 x 3. 6 x 0. 9 x na na na 3. 9 x Jul-07 September Holdings DCD Media £ 9. 1 1. 2 x na 12. 9 x Jul-07 West Park Pictures DCD Media £ 3. 0 2. 7 x na nm May-07 Endemol Investor group incl. John de Mol € 3, 396. 8 3. 0 x 19. 2 x 21. 2 x Jan-07 Princess Productions Endemol France Shine Endemol NV £ 20. 0 € 450. 0 na 2. 6 x 8. 5 x na 8. 6 x na Dec-06 WWTBAM & Cellador 2 waytraffic £ 111. 5 2 3. 8 x 7. 3 x na Dec-06 Kudos Shine £ 35. 0 na 11. 0 x 11. 3 x Aug-06 May-06 Secondary buy-out (Permira) IMG Media £ 320. 0 £ 27. 0 2 1. 4 x 0. 4 x 11. 5 x 12. 1 x 12. 3 x 15. 1 x IMG Media £ 20. 0 2 1. 0 x na na Apr-06 Mar-06 Dec-05 All 3 Media Tiger Aspect Holdings Darlow Smithson Productions Odeon Film Hurricane IWC GFP Vermögensverwaltungs Spütz RDF £ 15. 6 3 na £ 14. 0 2 0. 4 x na 0. 8 x 4. 3 x na 17. 5 x 4. 5 x na 19. 5 x Nov-05 Ricochet Shed £ 30. 0 2 2. 0 x na 14. 1 x Oct-05 TV Corp Tinopolis £ 27. 7 0. 6 x 21. 2 x na Aug-05 Touchpaper Television RDF £ 4. 2 0. 9 x 11. 9 x na Median 1. 4 x 11. 5 x 12. 9 x Average 1. 7 x 12. 1 x 12. 9 x Sep-07 Apr-06 PV of Proposed Deal Structure (assuming high-case payout) (MM) Last FY Sales Target Metronome Film & Television Twenty Productions Sparrowhawk Media Sep-07 Earn-outs: $25. 6 80/20: $25. 9 (1) (2) (3) (4) Acquiror Transaction Value (m) (100%) Schibsted ASA £ 31. 4 0. 4 x na 18. 8 x Shed Media £ 18. 0 1. 9 x 8. 6 x na Estimated consideration Median of upfront and earn-out inclusive multiple Includes maximum earn-out Source: Offer Memorandum, LTM multiples to June 2007, Forecasts from ING research, 3 August 2007 4
Impact of Earn-outs Tied to EBITDA Ranges P&L Cash Payments / NPV of Consideration Low Case Mid Case High Case 5
Impact of Acquiring 80% with a Put/Call on 20% (7 x Incremental Contribution) P&L Cash Flow / NPV of Consideration Low Case Mid Case High Case FY 14 – 18 could include ~$3 -5 MM of amortization for the buyout of the additional 20% 6
Impact of Acquiring 80% with a Put/Call on 20% (7 x EBITDA) P&L Cash Flow / NPV of Consideration Low Case Mid Case High Case FY 14 – 18 could include ~$3 -5 MM of amortization for the buyout of the additional 20% 7
ER Calendar Year Projections (Per Michael Davies) 8
Earn-out Target Estimates (1) Based on Davies’ CY 08 -11 estimates with CY 12 -13 growth at 15%. (2) Based on SPT estimates 9
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