Dr Nic Cheeseman Why it is too early

Dr Nic Cheeseman Why it is too early to give up on democracy in Africa

Argument outline Argument 1 – Democracy is doing better than you think Argument 2 – Democracy is good for development Argument 3 – Authoritarianism is performing worse than democracy

Argument 1 – The state of democracy Key indicators of competition and institutionalization are getting better not worse. 1) Competition: The level of political dominance on the continent is declining (Ian Cooper) 2) Institutionalization: More presidents are respecting term-limits than breaking them (Posner and Young)

Dominant party systems in Africa according to the van de Walle and Butler diagnostic criteria, 1990 -2015 70. 0 65. 0 60. 0 55. 0 50. 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Proportion (%) 75. 0 Year Ian Cooper – The Decline of Dominance

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1960 s 1970 s 1980 s 1990 s 2000 s natural death, voluntary resignation, losing an election coup/violent overthrow or assassination Posner and Young – Term Limits 2010 -2015

Argument 1 – The state of democracy Support for democracy is high & rising: “Demand for democracy is rising in Africa” (Afrobarometer 2014) § 71% want democracy § 77% reject one-party rule, 84% one-man rule § “Demand for Democracy” index increased by 15% from 2002 to 2012

Argument 1 – The state of democracy § Africans continue to believe in democracy § Support for democracy as the best form of political system has remained high § High public support for term limits

Argument 2 – Democracy & development Democracy is good for development § On average, democracies grow faster than authoritarian states (Masaki and van de Walle) the longer countries are democratic, the greater the advantage § Democracies are more likely to provide free education (Harding and Stasavage)

Argument 2 – Democracy & development The only countries in Africa not to offer free primary education are … Angola Cameroon Gabon Cote d’Ivoire Somalia Sudan

Argument 3 – Authoritarianism is worse § Authoritarian states fail to achieve growth or state building in Africa: economic collapse and civil conflict in 1980 s few parties manage to sustain early gains § Increasing breakdown of electoral-authoritarian states: Burkina Faso Burundi Eritrea Ethiopia

GDP per capita, selected countries, 1961 -1991 (World Bank, current US dollars) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 0 Nigeria Senegal Congo, Dem. Rep. Zambia Cote d'Ivoire Kenya Ghana Sub-Saharan Africa (developing only) Cheeseman (2015)

Total external debt, selected countries, 1970 -2000 (World Bank, billions, current US dollars) 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 0 Nigeria Senegal Cheeseman (2015) DRC Zambia Cote d'Ivoire Kenya Tanzania Ghana

Conclusion § Democracy in Africa is doing better than you think § Democracy generates a wide range of other benefits in terms of development § Authoritarian states perform worse than their democratic counterparts § So … it is far too early to give up on democracy in Africa … … and doing so would be politically unfeasible

@fromagehomme nicholas. cheeseman@politics. ox. ac. uk www. democracyinafrica. org