Dr Ing Gerd K Heinz www gheinz de

Dr. Ing. Gerd K. Heinz www. gheinz. de Is Global Warming Man-Made? The Atmosphere seen as an Autonomous System 12 th GI-Conference on Autonomous Systems. 24 th - 29 th October 2019, Cala Millor, Mallorca Please find sources and references to the lecture under www. gheinz. de The retired author has no financial interests in any energy industries nor is he affiliated with any political party 27. 11. 2020 1

The Problems § § § We know, that fossil sources end in near future: oil and coal in 50+ years, gas in 200+ years, so we have (carefully) to prepare alternatives But different uncertainties interact together: We have lots of discussions around the measurability of global warming The rule of carbon dioxide (CO 2) to global warming is not clear Water plays an up to 850 times greater rule, then CO 2 The global industry depends on fossil substrates (oil, gas, coal) to 87% The cheap atomic power came into discredit with Fukushima 2011 We have no industry, that works without carbon as carrier (chemistry, plast, transportation, airplanes, steel, concrete, asphalt, heating) The electrical alternatives (wind-power, biogas, solar-power) are expensive (more times of today's technologies) Alternative traffic concepts (trams, E-cars, E-busses, E-trucks) are limited, expensive, powerless, environment-unfriendly or inefficient Known alternatives find no place in market economy, they need the help of the state governments and the taxpayer has to pay for each mistake info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 2

Prediction of Global Warming § § § Weather forecast is not able to predict weather over 30 days with +/- 10°C But global warming predictions over 30 years have a precision of +/- 0. 1°C Can that be serious? Is that science or astrology? § § § Nobody knows exactly the rule played by carbon dioxide (CO 2) Nobody knows exactly, how global warming is effected by CO 2 Nobody knows the impact of different influences on climate (sun spots, cloudiness, desertification, burning of fossils) in relation together § But like a religion NGOs like #fridaysforfuture demand: Destroy our industry! Stop our live! But save the climate! § § Is it able to organise a global suicide basing on speculations? Or should we be sure, before we dismount coal or atomic power stations, the chemical industry, the car industry and the whole rest of industry? Is it dangerous? Yes it is! Can we be tolerant? No, we can not! § info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 3

VIS Physical Background § § § Earth temperature results from incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation into the 4 Kelvin cold space Water and CO 2 block the IRback-propagation between 9 and 13 µm, saving the earth warming, see Water is dominant, but plays a dual rule: As dust it blocks outgoing IR; as condensed vapor it blocks the whole spectrum (incoming and outgoing - clouds) incoming earth surface is flat, outgoing is spherical, the relation between them is 1: 4 So back radiation is important info@gheinz. de IR Spectral Absorption of "climate gases" with Planck-temperature in °C www. gheinz. de incoming Earth outgoing IR 4

Blocking the Back-Propagation - Water or CO 2? Black-body spectral density relative to the temperature in Celsius. Blue shows the symbolic absorption of water dust, red dot line shows symbolic the CO 2. The curves shift vertically with concentration (arrows). CO 2 has really a potential to influence the backpropagation to the 4 Kelvin cold space, but water has a higher. info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 5

Blocked Back-Propagation by Carbon Dioxide § § Heinz Hug checked the extinction-coefficient (absorption) of CO 2 He found at 15 µm (-80°C) for 357 ppm (value of 1998), that a 10 meter high air column blocks 99. 94 % of radiation, the medium is "optical dense" If the level of CO 2 increases, happens: Nothing! In other words: the greenhouse-effect appears in the dimension of a greenhouse (< 10 meters), not in the atmosphere (100 km) On 15 March 2019 the UN General Secretary António Guterres embraced the friday-for-future strikers, admitting that "My generation has failed to respond properly to the dramatic challenge of climate change. This is deeply felt by young people. No wonder they are angry. " § Which failure could Guterres mean? Population explosion? info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 6

The Rule Played by IPCC § § § In his 2006 film "An Inconvenient Truth" the former US-Presidential Candidate Al Gore had shown, that the climate changed over 600. 000 years without influence by men Based on a graphic chart he demonstrated the closed correlation of temperature and CO 2 over the last 600. 000 years His work in climate change activism earned him (jointly with the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) the “Nobel Peace Prize 2007” What Al Gore “forgot” to name in his film was (behind 8 other details, heard by a 2007 court case), that the CO 2 -curve follows the temperature curve all the time typically in a distance of 800 years So CO 2 seems to be not the reason, it is the effect of climate change. It is to expect, that the time constants of oceans cause that delay Got Al Gore the Nobel-Price 2007 for a lie? However, he has lots of political and financial interests in the field: he leads companies like Generation Investment Management, Alliance for Climate Protection, We Campaign, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 8

The "Hockey Stick" Diagram § Global warming curves published by the IPCC - Red: 1990, including the medieval cold- and warm-periods; blue: The "hockey-stick" by M. E. Mann 1998 (IPCC 2001); green: Jones, 2009; black: Moberg 2005 info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 9

Global Temperature Measurements § § § Looking into different papers of the IPCC we find the medieval warm period completely removed as an “event of local evidence” Witnesses included Fred Singer, whose statement cited the Oregon Petition against the Kyoto Protocol to claim that his sceptic views on human causes of climate change were not fringe (keine Randerscheinung) He said there had probably been no global warming since the 1940 s, and "Satellite data show no appreciable warming of the global atmosphere since 1979. In fact, if one ignores the unusual El Nino year of 1998, one sees a cooling trend" (!) From this, he concluded that "The post-1980 global warming trend from surface thermometers is not credible Are we really able to reconstruct or measure global average temperatures over very long times? Is IPCC an organization with other then scientific interests? info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 10

The Missing Medieval Warm-Period § § Leif Erikson discovered America and established the first Norse Settlement at "Vinland", now Newfoundland, Canada in the year 1003 He called it Vinland, "because they found wild wine with good fruits" (orig. : "weil dort Weinreben wild vorkommen, die guten Wein tragen" - Adam von Bremen anno 1076) Left: Eriksons route to Vinland; Right: Reconstruction of a "long house" in L'Anse aux Meadows on "Vinland". But where is the wine? Today it is very much colder then in those days! info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 11

The Missing Little Ice-Age Hendrick Avercamp: Living on ice near Amsterdam 1620 © Staatliche Museen zu Berlin, Kupferstichkabinett info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 12

Climate Prediction Errors § § § Patrick Frank (Stanford Uni) calculated the back-propagation influence of CO 2 He found a prediction of +/- 35 m. W/m² with an error level of +/- 4 Watt/m² to be "not serious" The prediction error is 114 times greater the result! But thousands of "scientists for future" in Germany knows it better: § In March 2019 the initiative issued a statement titled Statement of scientists and scholars concerning the protests for more climate protection. The statement was signed by over 26, 000 German-language scientists and scholars! § They are experts? § Her mother said: Greta can smell the carbon dioxide! info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 13

Variation of Sea Level § § Nir Shaviv (Israel) explored the relation between solar radiation and sea level in 2008. Red dots: solar constant, blue line: sea level variation He found a correlation with the "El-Niño" phenomenon info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 14

Black Spots on the Sun § § A solar flare of the sun has many times the size of the earth The sun radiation varies up to 5%, relating to 1400 -times the world energy production. Sunshine influences the liquidation of clouds. Source NASA (modified) info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 15

The Rule Played by Volcano Eruptions Volcanism brings very large quantities of CO 2 and water vapor into the atmosphere, known eruptions lead to earth cooling § So the potential of water (clouds) dominates over CO 2 and other "greenhouse gases" Example § Icelands Laki eruptions of 1783/84 in addition to the Grímsvötn eruptions 1785 brought very cool summers over Europe § In summer it was snowing, thousands of farmers could not pay debts and taxes and must left their farms, the farms stayed open § The harvest yield in France decreased dramatically § Food could not be imported from other countries as simple as today § People became hungry, they protested for lower bread prices § The French Revolution began 1789 § Napoleon hired his solders very cheap, they only want to have bread (History is simple if one understands the backgrounds. The Wikipedia story has forgotten, that people can not eat slogans, laws or taxes) § info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 16

Self-Excitation of Atmosphere (or the atmosphere seen as an autonomous system) § § § § From cold, wet summers we know, that plants grow beautiful, they remove a lot of CO 2 From hot, dry summers we know, that plants wither, they do not produce oxygen, they do not remove the CO 2 Also oceans show this behaviour: cold stores, warm frees CO 2 Thinking about oceans and permafrost grounds, in opposite to thesis "CO 2 brings global warming" thesis "global warming increases the CO 2 concentration" is verifiable If both effects are true, the CO 2 -system would self-excite: warm and cold ages would follow periodically Because we do not know an oscillation period, only one of both thesis is applicable So carbon dioxide seems to be more the indicator for global warming info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 17

Population Explosion (Exponential Growing) § § § In 1960 the earth had 3 billion citizens, in 2000 we had 6 billion It was the shortest intervall of doubling the population In developing nations it is common, to have many children (Africa, Middle East, Far East, South-America), the population grows exponential Examples: 50 years before Syria had 5 million people, now it has 18 million plus 5 million refugees, that left the country. Yemen has 16 million people, thereof 7 million children – all they need something to eat, to heat, to cook… Leading cities are Casa Blanca and Teheran, the population exploded there in 100 years by a factor of 100 Chinese were the first, they stopped the explosion, the program started 1984, and will end in 2024 with 1. 4 billion info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 18

CO 2 -Footprint of Man-Made Desertification § § § § Compared to oceans or rain forests, a cloudless sky over deserts brings up to 800 Watt/m² more heat to the surface The desertification of the Sahara produces 150 -times the world energy production of 2016 Following the population explosion, yearly an area like Germans farmland (0. 12 mio km²) disappears by anthropic* clearance of forests and following land depletion called "desertification" If a one meter thick humus body disappears on this area, it produces 14/15 of the anthropic CO 2 -footprint (96. 5%) of the world Only the rest (6, 5%) is fossil CO 2 Additionally, we get 2 times the world energy production by cloudless sky Within 75 years the next Sahara is born, warming the world again with 150 times the world energy production So man-made desertification is the leading factor for CO 2 -production *anthropic: man-made info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 19

Exponential Growing Fossil Carbon Exploitation § § § § Population grows exponential Carbon exploitation grows superexponential 1400 coal-fired power plants are in realisation worldwide, 950 in Africa (2016) Brown- and stone-coal make 41% of world energy production Only 1/15 of CO 2 is produced by burning of fossil sources Germany consumes 2. 5% of worlds carbon fossils: 2. 5% * 1/15 = 1. 66 promille So Germanys contribution to worlds CO 2 -footprint is 1. 7 promille (very important!) info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de population carbon production 20

Air Traffic Keelings CO 2 -measures on Mauna Loa (red) and air traffic (black) show an accidential correspondence ßTwo FTIR-measures (Fourier transform IRspectroscopy) of CO 2 distribution over the heigth (source Lamont). Airplanes could create partially a second "atmospherical roof" info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 21

Summary about Global Warming Is global warming man-made (anthropic)? § With some probability it is, but we have very important other sources § Natural tied CO 2 is 4000 -times more, as man-made fossil CO 2 § Sun variation of 5% brings 1400 -times the WEP (world energy prod. ) § Water (dust/vapor) has up to 850 times higher potential then CO 2 Most important sources of man-made global warming can be 1. Desertification by population explosion, it brings § 93. 5% of the man-made, fossil CO 2 § Every 75 years a further Sahara with the 150 -fold WEP 2. Burning of fossil carbon (oil, coal, gas) § It brings 6. 5% of man-made CO 2 (2016) 3. Air traffic has unknown probability to heat or to cool, because of the § Water and carbon dioxide emissions in 10 km height 4. Cattle ranching emits some methane as greenhouse gas, § but the current concentration is 1000 -times smaller then CO 2 § Probably insignificant info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 22

Alternative Sources for Carbon and Energy Hydrogen economy is expensive and explosive (by strong hydrogen diffusion) § Water electrolysis can replace steam methane reforming (SMR) to avoid 70 million tons hydrogen produced from natural gas for industrial use § Hydrogen economy can reach an energy efficiency of only 50% § Problem is the lost of 12% of energy for high-pressure storage at 700 bar § The weight to power ratio is 6 -times better then Li. Po-accus § Fuel cells are expensive and the life cycle is limited § H-cars have some potential to be used for long-distance traffic Solar panels are very expensive and have special problems: § Local power stations could be successful § Relating to a last study in Switzerland, they produce in a 30 year life cycle only 83% of the energy that is necessary to produce them § Large fields of them push the earth warming by additional desertification – they are nor green, nor ecological, nor sustainable info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 23

Alternative Sources (2) green Liquid reactor Bio-gas from waste seems to be sustainable, but it is limited § Cars can be driven with biogas, it can be stored very simple § It can be used as substitution for natural (fossil) gas everywhere § But their liquid waste removal is not solved green + Wind power can reach the prices per k. Wh of coal power in near future § Today cheapest plants with 100 k. W … 1 MW produce with a cost factor of 2 § But wind is stochastic, we need electricity storages (pump storage stations) § Or electrolysis-cells to produce hydrogen for FT-synthesis Fischer-Tropsch (FT-) synthesis seems to be a sustainable technology § Trees or other plants filter the carbon dioxide out of the air very efficient § Their carbon reacts with hydrogen, coming from wind-energy driven electrolysis cells, to produce synthesis gas or petroleum-like liquids § Compatible with current technologies § But the overall process costs are higher then current technologies info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 24

green Alternative Sources (3) Hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) § In times without coal, we have to provide our industry with carbon too (chemistry, concrete, steel, tar, asphalt etc. ) § May be, we have to remember techniques of the early technical revolution § HTC is simple: wet biomass + 10 bar pressure + 180°C, exotherm § We get products between tar, stone- and brown coal § Compared with stone- or brown coal it seems to be expensive § Worlds first production: AVA's HTC-plant in Relzow near Anklam (2010) § Limit is the size of forests in relation to the population (!) § Wood production DE ~ 60 e 6 m³ ~ 30 e 6 toe; used: 148 e 6 toe § 1 toe = 2 m³ (? ): 148/30 = 4. 9; we use 5 times more, as we have! § So northern countries will lead this market in near future… E-mobility § If wind-powered, they could be greenish (problems: lithium, cobalt) § Charged with coal power, they are a disaster, see following pages info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 25

Energy Efficiency of E-Mobility and E-Heatings § In DE, coal power stations have to carry a basic load of 50% of electricity § It is planned to reach a "50% Strommix" (today we have a 63% Strommix) § So we plan to charge 50% of cars with coal power for all future What is the efficiency of the chain between coal power station and wheels? (For comparison: our combustion-cars have a power efficiency of 40%) § The coal power station has a energy efficiency of 38% (IEA-reference) § Each electric transformator loses 1%, for 15 stages we have 86% eff. rest § The transmission lines together have under 90% (optimistic) § The pump storage station has 70% (upwards and downwards) § The E-cars accu charge and discharge has 70% § The E-cars speed controller together with the E-motor has 80% To get the overall efficiency for a coal power driven E-car we multiply the parts: § The product is 11, 5%. So we lose 88. 5% of the inserted energy! § Problem: The same way we could heat our flats – price will increase 26 -fold: gas electro: 3, coal wind: 3, electro heating: 1/0. 115 = 8. 7! info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 26

E-cars for long-distance traffic? Understanding the Li. Po accu-size of E-cars § E-car accus have very limited energy (in kilowatt hours - k. Wh) § The diesel-equivalent L in liter is the accu-capacity E in k. Wh divided by the Heinz-constant for diesel Hd = 5 k. Wh/l (5 kilowatt hours per liter) L = E / Hd Tab. 1 § § § Accu-capacitance Diesel-equivalent E-mobile Typ (2018) E in k. Wh L in liter Smart EQ 17, 6 3, 52 Hyunday Ionic 28 5, 6 Renault ZOE 40 40 8 Opel Ampera 60 12 Tesla S 100 20 Additionally: Li. Po-accus are heavy: Tesla accu has a weight of 600 kg A 60 liter tank would have a weight of 1800 kg E-cars have potential for short-distances (with market volume 7… 12%) info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 27

CO 2 of E-Mobility equals Steam Locomotives 40% 11. 5% Degree of efficiency relating to CO 2 E-cars have potential for short-distances. Charged with coal power they have the CO 2 -efficiency of a steam engine! info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de Charged with coal power over a pumped storage station 10% 28

Summary • Man-made CO 2 comes 2016 to 93. 5% from desertificating areas, we have to fight against population explosion! • Desertification accumulates additional warming of 2 -times the WEP per year • 6. 5% of CO 2 comes from anthropic fossil carbon combustion (industry) • Germanys contribution to man-made CO 2 -footprint is insignificant: 1. 7 promille • It is very dangerous to destroy the technologies we have: our current technologies, grown over 200 years of engineering! • Charged with coal-energy, E-cars have the efficiency of steam-engines. As short distance cars, they have a market-potential of 7… 12% • Carbon substitution: HTC and Fischer-Tropsch (FT-) synthesis can use (dry) biomass with wind powered hydrogen for carbon, fuel- and gas production – they are compatible and sustainable technologies • But in Germany we have not enough biomass, we would need 5 -times more forest area info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 29

Conclusion § § § § Climate change within the next 100 years is out of the scope of mankind Mankind will disappear within the next 30 to 50 years, if fossil coal or oil disappeares: Coal is responsible for steel, concrete, chemistry esp. plastic materials (99% of electronic devices), heating, electricity Oil is responsible for all foods and goods heavy transportation, like trucktraffic, train-traffic, ship-traffic, cranes, airplanes and cars but also for agriculture (tractors, devices) – if oil is missing, we have nothing to eat Billion of people will dye of hunger Earth will end in the biggest holocaust ever To survive, we need carbon substitution + energy substitution We need the "Kohlenstoffwende" (carbon exchange) and the "Energiewende" (energy exchange) Thanks for your attention! info@gheinz. de www. gheinz. de 30