Doskonalenie procesw programowych Wykad 4 Intuicyjne zarzdzanie przedsiwziciem

Doskonalenie procesów programowych Wykład 4 Intuicyjne zarządzanie przedsięwzięciem Jerzy. Nawrocki@put. poznan. pl www. cs. put. poznan. pl/jnawrocki/psp J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. . Copyright, 2001 © Jerzy R. Nawrocki

Introduction . . Project planning. . J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Introduction Cyclic dev. Design templates Code & design reviews Task & schedule planning Size estimating + Test report Coding strd+Size measuremnt+PIP Time & defect recording J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. . Cyclic Quality Planning Baseline

Introduction When to plan? J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. . Always!

Introduction begin. . end 500 LOC J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Plan of the lecture • Introduction • Delphi method • Schedule estimating • Progress tracking • Risk management J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Delphi method Pythia Rand Corporation, Boehm’ 81 • A few experts individually produce effort estimates. • A Delphi process is used to reach a consensus. J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Delphi method The Delphi procedure 1. Experts get the specification and an estimation form 2. They meet for discussion (project goals, assumptions, estimation issues) 3. Each expert anonymously lists the tasks and estimates the size The estimate 4. The estimates go to the estimate moderator. He tabulates the results and moderator returns them to the experts. J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Delphi method Estimator: Jerzy Nawrocki Date: 22. 06. 1999 Project: Sorting routine The estimates from the 1 st round: e 0 20 E 40 M e 60 e 80 100 e - estimates, E - your estimate, M - median estimate Your estimate for the next round: . . Hours. A rationale for your estimate: . . . . . . . . J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Delphi method The Delphi procedure 5. The experts meet to discuss the results. They review the tasks they have defined but not their size estimates. 6. The procedure is repeated from step 3 until the estimates are acceptably near The estimate moderator J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Plan of the lecture • Introduction • Delphi method • Schedule estimating • Progress tracking • Risk management J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Schedule estimating Schedule Effort Size J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. . Calendar Availability factor

Schedule estimating Task 1 1 w 10 2 w 20 30 Task 2 3 w 40 J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. . 4 w 50 Task 3 5 w 60 70 6 w 80 7 w 90 [h]

Schedule estimating Project: Color. Map J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. . Data: 23. 05. 1999

Schedule estimating Project: Color. Map J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. . Data: 23. 05. 1999

Plan of the lecture • Introduction • Delphi method • Schedule estimating • Progress tracking • Risk management J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Progress tracking Problem: how to track a progress when a sequence of tasks is rearranged? T 1 T 2 Earned Value Method: • Each task is assigned a number of credit points. T 2 T 1 • To earn the points assigned to a task, the task must be completed. • The points reflect ‘time complexity’ and are normalised to 1000 points. J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Progress tracking Earned Value Method J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Progress tracking Project: Color. Map J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. . Data: 23. 05. 1999

Progress tracking Project: Color. Map J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. . Data: 23. 05. 1999

Progress tracking I’ve forgotten about task Tj !!! Adjusted EV: timei New_EVi= x 1000 timej + timek J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Progress tracking Project: Color. Map J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. . Data: 23. 05. 1999

Plan of the lecture • • Introduction Delphi method Schedule estimating Progress tracking • Risk management J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Risk management What is a risk? J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Risk management Two approaches to risk Reactive J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. . Proactive

Risk management Risk description Probability Impact • catastrophic • critical • marginal • negligible J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Risk management RMMM = Risk Mitigation, Monitoring, and Management Mitigation= minimising the probability Monitoring= observing factors/indicators Management= if it happens. . J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Risk management Risk analysis IBM: > 100 risk factors For each risk factor an MMM plan. Risk management becomes a project in itself! Pareto analysis: the 80 -20 principle J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

External Internal Risk management Positive Negative Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Summary • Work statement & SWOT • Effort estimation & Delphi method • Schedule estimating • Risk & RMMM Plan • Progress tracking, EV and corrective actions J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .

Quality assessment 1. What is your general impression ? (1 - 6) 2. Was it too slow or too fast ? 3. Did you learn something important to you ? 4. What to improve and how ? J. Nawrocki, Doskonalenie Procesów. .