Docu Sign Danny Feldmeier and Matt Jennings April
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Docu. Sign Danny Feldmeier and Matt Jennings April 16, 2020
Docu. Sign Inc. (NASDAQ: DOCU) Situation Overview Selected Financial Data § DOCU as an industry creator and leader – First mover into contract lifetime management (CLM) and E-signature solutions suite – Tremendous scale in E-signature suite – DOCU has hundreds of existing contracts with major enterprises and SMB’s across the world § What the market’s missing – Over-estimation of competitive dynamics – Limited downside as DOCU scales during COVID-19 – Unique industry positioning with established SAAS businesses (Salesforce, SAP, and Service. Now) Share Price (as of April 15, 2020) Equity/Enterprise Value $100. 94 17. 05 BN/17. 04 BN LTM Revenue 974 mm LTM EBITDA (163) mm LTM EBITDA Margin (%) (17%) EV/LTM Revenue 17. 5 x One-Year Share Price Performance 110 +2. 74% 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Sources: Yahoo Finance, Seeking Alpha, SEC filings 2
Non-Commoditized Product in An Industry with A Lot of Green Space Main Points § Non-Commoditized Product – Diligence calls reveal that there is a substantial difference between using DOCU and Adobe Sign – DOCU is the only SAAS business offering an ESignature solution with direct integration in CLM software – Adobe, the closest E-Signature competitor, only offers services in bundled packages while the CLM industry is largely fragmented § Green Space – E-Signature TAM is around $25 bn while the TAM for ESignature and CRM suite is around $40 bn – Tremendous green space for businesses to operate, no urgency for competitors to use competitive pricing models Competitive Landscape and Existing Products E-Signature/CLM Revenue Products E-Signature and CRM Bundle? 918. 5 mm E-Signature and CLM Solutions ~3. 8 mm Access E-Signature Solutions through an Adobe Bundle 150 mm CLM Solutions Specializing in EComm Total Addressable Market (Revenue mm) E-Signature TAM 919 4 E-Signature/CRM Suite 919 150 Developing an ESignature/CRM suite allows for DOCU to explore a larger TAM 39, 078 23, 932 DOCU Adobe TAM DOCU Apttus TAM 3
DOCU—Rapidly Expanding E-Signature Solution Suite Main Points § Retention Rate: Growing retention rate means not only are firms renewing contracts but expanding Docu. Sign’s services. Results in compounding revenue growth § Culture Hurdle: The largest hurdle for Docu. Sign is the culture of pen and paper signatures. Once electronic signatures become accepted, they are implemented across the firm § Growing Contract Values: As Docu. Sign saves companies money and time, the contract volumes quickly grow in addition to customer spend Dollar Net Retention Rate 118% 117% 116% 115% 114% 113% 112% 111% 110% 109% 4 Q 18 1 Q 19 2 Q 19 3 Q 19 4 Q 19 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 % 7. 8 437 4 R: G A C 310 2017 2018 2019 Revenue and Revenue/Customer 2, 709 3, 000 2, 500 2, 150 2, 000 1, 500 § Downside Protection: 86% of ACV comes from customers with ACVs of +$300, 000. Larger enterprises like this will have large switching costs and lower default risk Customers with ACV $300 k+ 1, 000 500 - 519 2017 701 2018 974 2019 Revenue 1, 275 2020 1, 676 2021 2022 2023 Rev/Customer Company Filings 4
Why Customers Choose DOCU Selected Quotes from Customers § Pricing: “Adobe has historically been priced higher than Docu. Sign, for which I pay “dimes on the dollar” per transaction. ” § Integration: “Docu. Sign’s overlap with Salesforce is so high that I’m surprised that Salesforce hasn’t acquired them. ” § Scale: “We are a reseller of Docu. Sign, doing $15 -$20 million per year in sales. Our Docu. Sign sales growth has historically been 15%-25% and has more recently accelerated to 30%. Docu. Sign has positioned itself as a clear market leader with competitive advantage in pricing, integration and scale Deustche Bank Sell-Side, Company Filings The Docu. Sign Advantage A Adobe is the only significant competitor – Consistently cheaper alternative to Adobe Sign due to stand-alone pricing model B – Exclusively sold as a package deal with other Adobe services – Adobe is attempting to compete by offering wider packages instead of lowering price – Exclusive partnership with Salesforce and SAP – Difficult to integrate with third party platforms – Considered significantly better with third party integration than Adobe accessibility due to pdf C – Lowerconversion method – 7 of the top 10 technology, 18 of the top 20 global pharmaceutical, and 10 of the top 15 global financial companies D – Undisclosed market share. Estimated to be less than 50% of Docu. Sign’s 5
DOCU E-Signature and CLM Integration Strategy Main Points § DOCU is the only E-Signature provider offering a full CLM suite – other providers either don’t offer a CLM product or E-Signature product Four Components behind Integration Strategy Phase § Spring CM Acquisition – Spring CM acquisition gives DOCU the ability to generate and collaborate on contracts across a customers’ business 1 § Seal Acquisition Manually preparing and collaborating on agreements for execution; Spring CM acquisition – Digitalizing the process of manually routing and signing paper-based agreements – Automating entering info from signed documents into other systems across the company – Storing signed documents and completed agreements for business use; Seal acquisition 2 Time Savings 3 Document Action – Allows DOCU to act as a “digital filing cabinet” – Lowers customer overhead needed to store documents and eliminates frictions associated with record keeping – Prepare Documents § DOCU E-Signature – The Bread and Butter – Advanced E-signature platform saves months of time processing contracts and simplifies the contract storage process/record keeping Strategy 4 Manage Contracts Company Filings, Diligence Calls 6
Diligence and Research Notes Main Points COVID-19 Security Measures § COVID-19: Work from home restrictions benefit Docu. Sign as customers are incentivized to to expand e-signatures § Scale: COVID-19 has forced customers to ramp up Docu. Sign usage. Thus contracts will be renewed faster § Encryption: Utilizes the strongest encryption and blockchain technologies commercially available § Culture Change: Work from home is forcing people to accept e-signatures. This could accelerate growth within firms § Certification: ISO 27001 Certification which is he highest security certification for enterprises § Security: Docu. Sign has risen as the leader in e-signatures and carries a brand trust that would be difficult to match by any new entrant § Case Study: University of Massachusetts Amherst case study is an example of Docu. Sign’s strong moat and ability to scale to meet coronavirus demand § Sticky Revenues: Subscription model and high switching costs will resist downturn caused by the virus § Trust: Partnerships with Salesforce and SAP display Docu. Sign’s strong credibility amongst enterprises Case Study: University of Massachusetts Amherst Situation: University of Massachusetts contract had expired with Adobe. Chose Docu. Sign because the pdf format of Adobe caused accessibility issues Switching Costs: Mainly comprised of the time and effort of switching software for all administrators and students. • Success With Docu. Sign: With an integral e-signature platform, Docu. Sign has been able to handle the rapid increase in volume due to COVID-19 • Pricing: Even with a superior and more accessible product, Docu. Sign is considerably cheaper than Adobe. 7
Comps Takeaways Growth Comps § EV/Revenue: Valuation of 16. 9 x is expensive, but below Saa. S comps that benefit from the digital WFH transformation Company Zscaler, Inc. Okta, Inc. Zoom Video Communications, Inc. Mongo. DB, Inc. Twilio, Inc. ZM 34. 74 33. 96 54. 5 x MDB TWLO 8. 08 13. 32 8. 08 12. 11 19. 2 x 10. 7 x Docu. Sign, Inc. DOCU $16. 44 $16. 45 16. 9 x $8 16 13 35 $8 16 12 34 10. 7 x 26. 6 x 21. 5 x 54. 5 x – 4. 6 x turns below median § COVID-19: Price has room for appreciation as investors shift cash into companies that will grow due to WFH restrictions for hedging purposes § Mature Comps: Comps historically remain relatively expensive to the market even after achieving sustainable operating and EBITDA margins Docu. Sign, Inc. Market Enterprise Capitalization Value $8. 10 $7. 75 16. 08 15. 78 Low Mean Median High Mature Comps Company Adobe, Inc. Salesforce. com, Inc. Service. Now, Inc. Ticker ZS OKTA EV / Revenue 2019 A LTM 21. 5 x 26. 9 x Ticker ADBE CRM NOW Enterpris EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA e Cap Value 2019 A LTM $153. 55 $154. 09 13. 2 x 37. 8 x 138. 32 136. 63 8. 0 x 60. 0 x 52. 78 52. 22 15. 1 x 177. 5 x DOCU $16. 44 $16. 45 $53 115 138 154 $52 114 137 154 Market Low Mean Median High 16. 9 x – – 8. 0 x 37. 8 x 12. 1 x 91. 7 x 13. 2 x 60. 0 x 15. 1 x 177. 5 x 8
Valuation – False Perception of an “Expensive Business” Valuation Statistics Company Zscaler, Inc. Okta, Inc. Zoom Video Comm. , Inc. Mongo. DB, Inc. Twilio, Inc. Ticker ZS OKTA ZM MDB TWLO Docu. Sign, Inc. DOCU Low Mean Median High Operating Statistics Company Zscaler, Inc. Okta, Inc. Zoom Video Comm. , Inc. Mongo. DB, Inc. Twilio, Inc. Docu. Sign, Inc. Market Enterprise Capitalization Value $8. 10 $7. 75 16. 08 15. 78 34. 74 33. 96 8. 08 13. 32 12. 11 EV / Revenue 2019 A LTM 21. 5 x 26. 9 x 54. 5 x 19. 2 x 10. 7 x $16. 44 $16. 45 16. 9 x $8 16 13 35 $8 16 12 34 10. 7 x 26. 6 x 21. 5 x 54. 5 x Ticker ZS OKTA ZM MDB TWLO Revenue 2019 A LTM $360 586 623 422 1, 135 DOCU $974 38. 9% $360 625 586 1, 135 46. 8% 63. 3% 57. 9% 88. 9% Low Mean Median High Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Finance, Company Filings Revenue Growth '18 -'19 A LTM 48. 2% 46. 8% 88. 9% 57. 9% 74. 5% – DOCU has recently started trading around 17 x revenue while comparable growth SAAS companies trade in the mid to low 20’s – DOCU will sustain its trading multiple as its first mover advantage, lack of competition, and resilience against COVID-19 make it a strong player among SAAS comps – High barriers to entry, high pricing power, and gradual margin expansion justify a higher trading multiple Stock Price DCF Comps EV/Rev (TTM Sum of FCF 2, 265 2026) 10 Terminal EV/EBITDA Value 24, 840 (2026) 40 EV 27, 105 EV 24, 326 Debt 465 Debt 465 Cash 9, 928 Cash 9, 928 Equity Value 36, 568 Equity Value 33, 789 Stock Price 4/10 Stock Price Upside 201. 52 Stock Price 186. 21 90. 63 122% 4/10 Stock Price Upside 90. 63 105. 5% 9