Diversity vs Solidarity The Impact of MultiEthnicity on

Diversity vs. Solidarity The Impact of Multi-Ethnicity on Wealth, Redistribution, Democracy and Political Stability

Recent Research • Recent quantitative research from economics • Measures of ethnic diversity, known as ELF (ethnic fractionalization index) • Initially based on 1960 s Soviet ethnographic/statistic atlas; later updated • Context: most wars are intra-state and ethnic after 1945, and esp. after 1989; also, growing diversity in first world urban areas, coupled with inequality • Ethnic diversity used to explain underinvestment in public services, poor African economic growth, as well as conflict

Ethnic Fractionalization ELF = 1 - ∑ (share of group i out of a total of n groups), for all groups Chance that two random individuals will be from different groups. • Tanzania: many groups, each with small share. High ELF. • N. Ireland or Sri Lanka: two big groups with big share, plus a few smaller ones. Middling ELF. • Japan, Botswana: one big group with most, and a few small minorities with small numbers. Low ELF.

Results of Research on Diversity and Violence • Initial studies show strong link

Why Violence: A Primordialist Point of View • Vanhanen suggests that ethnic heterogeneity inevitably leads to ethnic conflict, including violent ethnic conflict • EH =. 536, much stronger than GDP/head (-. 208) or Democracy (. 089) • Suggests assimilation/separation to remove heterogeneity

Results of Research on Diversity and Violence • Subsequent studies show weak or tenuous association • Income per capita, newness or weakness of the state, difficulty of terrain, population, oil exporting country, neighbouring instability – all more important • Idea is that the causes of insurgency are more direct: insurgents who inflict violence are lightly armed and do not necessarily represent a large popular movement • Weak states allow for roaming insurgents who can easily elude the government, and counter-insurgents (like a poorly disciplined army) may prey on the people they are supposedly defending, exacerbating conflict

Diversity and Income • Famous economic article by Easterly and Levine (1999) • Africa compared to E Asia, 1965 -90 • 'High levels of ethnic diversity are strongly linked to high black market premiums, poor financial development, low provision of infrastructure, and low levels of education…'

Diversity and Corruption • 'One group may impose an overvalued exchange rate and strict exchange controls for the purpose of generating rents from reselling foreign exchange on the black market. Another group may impose very low interest rates (i. e. negative in real terms) for the purpose of generating rents in the form of low-interest loans to their supporters…' (Easterly & Levine 1999)

• Net Result: 25 -40% of difference in economic performance between E Asia and Africa in 1965 -90 can be attributed to ethnic diversity • Ethnic diversity mainly works through corruption and poor public infrastructure

Diversity and Public Goods • Harder to agree on the content of a public good, then it is less likely to be provided (Alesina et al 1997) • School: what language(s) should be taught, where should the school be built • Road: where should the road be built, in whose area? • Garbage collection: in whose area? • Easier not to provide it

Diversity and Public Goods… • Ethnic diversity, as measured by four main 'races' in US • Controlling for education level, income, population size, proportion elderly • County, metro and city levels of analysis • Ethnic diversity is far and away the strongest predictor of low spending on 'useful' public services (education, garbage, roads) • Reverse is true for spending on police, reflecting higher crime associated with diversity

Why Does Ethnic Diversity Undermine Support for Public Services? • Habramiyana, Posner et al 2006 • Kampala slums: Kifumbira v Katale • Government withdraws money for policing due to budget shortages • Homogeneous Kitale organises selfpolicing, has low crime; Kifimbura cannot organise, has high crime • Experiment

Habramiyana Experiment (2006) • A game of how much to give to each other. Based on trust. • Players shown images and other cues of other players (revealing their ethnicity) • Actually very little overt discrimination • But co-ethnics could find each other faster in the 'network game' where there was a cash reward for finding a random person • Bottom Line: Better Networks and Ethnic sanctions for those who fail to adhere to norm of favouring co-ethnics

A possible model?

Complicating Factor: Measuring Diversity • Must have correct measure of ethnic diversity: – 'politically relevant' ethnic identities (PREG) versus more local ones in Africa – Which group dominates the state and is it a majority or minority

Diversity and Solidarity: Wider Debates • First raised by Prospect editor David Goodhart, 2003 • Later in article 'Is Britain Too Diverse' (2004) • Idea that the Left needs to rediscover nationhood • American model of high diversity and low solidarity/welfare state vs European model of low diversity and high solidarity • Europe and Britain must choose. Should choose European model

Normative Questions • Critique of Goodhart: ethnic diversity v. social diversity. • Britain arguably has the highest social diversity (class and lifestyle subcultures) in Europe • Goodhart mentions both • Solution is a civic nationalism which can reduce diversity, as well as controlled immigration and assimilation • Liberals counter-argue for 'unity-in-diversity' , but is this a chimera?

Banting et al. • Weak link between diversity (as suggested by immigrant stock) and social welfare • No link between states with multicultural policies and support for public spending

Banting et al: the Canadian Exception? • No statistical link between attitudes toward the welfare state and ethnic diversity of a community • But more diverse communities were less trusting (of both minorities and themselves)

Diversity and Trust • “Say you lost a wallet or purse with $100 in it. How likely is it that the wallet or purse will be returned with the money in it if it was found by a [neighbour/police officer/clerk at the local grocery store/ and a stranger]? ”

Is Canada a good test? • Minorities are mainly from Asia and have not used public services at a higher rate than natives • Thus no situation of majority paying and minorities receiving, as elsewhere • Situation may be changing with recent immigrants from 90 s on doing worse • Finally: is support for the welfare state the best measure of 'solidarity'?