Distribution of NAEFS products CMC perspective NAEFS workshop
Distribution of NAEFS products CMC perspective NAEFS workshop Oct 6 -8 2008, NCEP Lewis Poulin, MSC-CMC Implementation. and Operational services lewis. poulin@ec. gc. ca
Many coordinated processes between two or more centers before products reach the users Obs Server Send NCEP Receive Send Server Products from Raw [NCEP, CMC, NAEFS] Bias adjust NCEP, CMC, NAEFS CMC Products from Raw [NCEP, CMC, NAEFS] Delivery Users DRAFT – Page 2 – 05 January 2022 Images GRIB[1, 2] Bias adjust NCEP, CMC, NAEFS Products from Raw [NCEP, CMC, NAEFS]
Types of products • Ensemble grid point data (GRIB[1, 2]) • Images and forecast products DRAFT – Page 3 – 05 January 2022
Ensemble GRIB[1, 2] products
Access to CMC NAEFS dataset GRIB[1, 2] for NAEFS partners Servers CMC NAEFS GRIB[1, 2] Main NAEFS data sources for partners ftp -A depot. cmc. ec. gc. ca/naefs/cmc/grib Prog Filenames CMC_naefs_latlon 1 p 0 x 1 p 0_YYYYMMDD[00, 12]_P hhh_mbr. grib[2] Analysis Filenames CMC_naefs_latlon 1 p 0 x 1 p 0_YYYYMMDD[00, 06, 12, 18]_P 000_ana. grib[2] Re-analysis filenames n/a - see necp Comments Access restricted to NAEFS partners DRAFT – Page 5 – 05 January 2022
CMC NAEFS public data access Coming soon in GRIB 2 only CMC NAEFS dataset - not yet available for external users Plans are underway to make CMC grib 2 naefs data available CMC public NAEFS data source(s) Users have expressed an interest in also having access to bias adjusted ensemble dataset CMC NAEFS EPSgrams: Informal public access to raw data used to make NAEFS EPSgrams is also presently available Comments DRAFT – Page 6 – 05 January 2022
Important to document grib datasets properly for users http: //collaboration. cmc. ec. gc. ca/cmc/cmoi/product_guide/docs/grib 2/naefs_cmc_grib 2 descr. html DRAFT – Page 7 – 05 January 2022
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CMC alternative ensemble GRIB 1 dataset Other Ensemble Data sources for External Users low-resolution CMC ensemble grib 1 dataset is available at: http: //www. weatheroffice. gc. ca/grib/En semble_GRIB_e. html CMC is planning to offer GRIB 2 ensemble data in the future at: http: //www. weatheroffice. gc. ca/grib/E nsemble_GRIB_e. html DRAFT – Page 10 – 05 January 2022
CMC NAEFS images on main MSC server NAEFS PRODUCTS ON WEB CMC NAEFS products English: http: //www. weatheroffice. gc. ca/ensemble/index _naefs_e. html French: http: //www. weatheroffice. gc. ca/ensemble/index _naefs_f. html Other own center ensemble products English: http: //www. weatheroffice. gc. ca/ensemble/index _e. html French: http: //www. weatheroffice. gc. ca/ensemble/index _e. html DRAFT – Page 11 – 05 January 2022
Images and forecast products
CEPS products Available on publicly accessible web server • • 10 -day mean temperature anomaly spaghetti plots Calibrated probability of equivalent precipitation Accumulated quantity of precipitation Sea level pressure centres GZ 500 maps Ensemble spread of trial fields NAEFS Products (North American Ensemble Forecast System) • Basic products. – – – Mean and standard deviation. Spaghetti charts. EPS-grams. – – Probability of exceedance Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) • Probabilistic products. http: //www. weatheroffice. gc. ca/ensemble/index_e. html http: //www. meteo. gc. ca/ensemble/index_f. html DRAFT – Page 13 – 05 January 2022
Operational use of CEPS General comments • Late product availability limits the use of CEPS – (about 7 hours after 00 and 12 UTC) • Use varies from center to center and within centers • Users still view EPS for mainly long term forecasts • Users still thinking in deterministic mode • To increase use of EPS data: – Workshop developed to train operational meteorologists – Working on automated EPS forecast – Earlier availability – at next implementation 45 min earlier. DRAFT – Page 14 – 05 January 2022
From Client Services How clients are using EPS • BC River Forecast Centre ingesting NAEFS data for use in forecast hydrographs • BC Hydro using NAEFS temperature forecasts and short range EPS for precipitation forecasts • Aviation industry has expressed desire to ingest probabilistic forecasts into decision support systems • Concordia Solar Lab investigating how to integrate EPS probablity information into their solar buildings management systems • Much more training required by users to make full use of products DRAFT – Page 15 – 05 January 2022
Automated EPS public forecasts • All public forecasts in Canada are produced through a forecast production system called SCRIBE – Automatically generates written forecasts from raw model data – A basic matrix is produced, then packaged for users • We are developing new SCRIBE matrices using EPS • • output Goal: Produce 1 -16 day forecasts experimentally Weather parameters included – cloud covers, – precipitation occurrences and types, – winds and temperatures. DRAFT – Page 16 – 05 January 2022
Exploring new EPS products R. E. Forecasts? • DSWRF from the model • Sample 2 -day forecast of the no. of 40 -gal hot water tanks from a solar water heater • EPS could be used to produce probability type RE forecasts • Solar water, solar pv, wind, water collection DRAFT – Page 17 – 05 January 2022
-5 http: //collaboration. cmc. ec. gc. ca/cmc/CMOI/Publications/REFcst_Solar. H 2 O. pdf • Prototype EPS RE forecast • Probability of receiving more than 250 (L) of solar heated water in the next 5 days • Similar products can be produced for 1 or 2 day forecasts • To help support R. E. based lifestyles, personal energy management DRAFT – Page 18 – 05 January 2022
Conclusion • << …no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. >> EPS can answer that need. • A number of mainly graphical EPS products are presently available – Need to improve product delivery times (coming soon) – Users have many ideas – Considering user feedback will help improve quality, use of products • EPS still underused in Canada, to correct that situation: – – A workshop to train operational meteorologists was given. A prototype automated EPS forecast for public use is being developed Growing number of external users interested in EPS data EPS can be used in creative opportunities, ex: R. E. forecasts DRAFT – Page 19 – 05 January 2022
Thank You Questions?
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