DISSOLVING DISASTERS A Resilience Game where Donors Walk

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DISSOLVING DISASTERS A Resilience Game where Donors Walk the Talk X E T C

DISSOLVING DISASTERS A Resilience Game where Donors Walk the Talk X E T C E P O C F N N IO S U Designed for the Rockefeller Foundation by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez

Why a game on Resilience? Incentives Collaboration & vs. Short-term Disincentives Competition “Resilience” is

Why a game on Resilience? Incentives Collaboration & vs. Short-term Disincentives Competition “Resilience” is the adaptive of people, vs. ability Long-term institutions or complex human and natural. S RISK TAKING U T h r systems to restabilize in response to shocks e s R hold STRATEGY s P R Side effects Feedbacks I & & Delays S “Cheating the E system” S Local vs National vs

GROUND RULES 1. We will play two sets of rounds (“practice” & “for real”)

GROUND RULES 1. We will play two sets of rounds (“practice” & “for real”) 2. Game = simplified representation of reality (No questioning of game rules) 3. Decisions are individual (But consultation with team is encouraged) 4. Farmers win or lose beans (Start with 1; no sharing with others) 5. Please enter data before roll of die, every turn (Volunteers for journal manuscript? )

WINNERS & LOSERS Losing Farmer(s): who end up without enough beans (OUT) All Winning

WINNERS & LOSERS Losing Farmer(s): who end up without enough beans (OUT) All Winning Farmer: Most points accumulated individually Winning Village: Most farmers still living in the village Winning Donor: Most points accumulated collectively by farmers

What are the chances of a disaster this year? (Based on past record) Probability

What are the chances of a disaster this year? (Based on past record) Probability of Regional Drought = 1 in 6 Probability of Regional Flood = in 6 1

YOU (SUBSISTENCE FARMER) Go to umbrella to protect from too much r Cost =

YOU (SUBSISTENCE FARMER) Go to umbrella to protect from too much r Cost = 1 Go to bucket to protect from too little rain

If there’s no disaster, or if there’s a disaster but you are protected: Gain

If there’s no disaster, or if there’s a disaster but you are protected: Gain 2 If there’s Drought or Flood and you’re not protected: Pay 4 Not enough beans to pay? OUT! practice

YOU (GLOBAL DONOR) Finite budget. Options include: a) Disaster response b) Growth c) Disaster

YOU (GLOBAL DONOR) Finite budget. Options include: a) Disaster response b) Growth c) Disaster risk reduction

LET’S PLAY!

LET’S PLAY!

Seasonal forecast: “La Niña”! Instead of roll of the die, flip a coin (drought:

Seasonal forecast: “La Niña”! Instead of roll of the die, flip a coin (drought: 50% chanc

Volatility in markets! Changes in commodity prices & exchange ra Now donor needs 2

Volatility in markets! Changes in commodity prices & exchange ra Now donor needs 2 special beans for what used to take

How would you modify the game? (to make it better at capturing “resilience” issues)

How would you modify the game? (to make it better at capturing “resilience” issues) 1. Select a theme that matters but isn’t well represented 2. Propose a few simple changes in rules & narrative 3. Test the new variant 4. Make this “your” game!