DISSOLVING DISASTERS A Resilience Game where Donors Walk

Why a game on Resilience? Incentives Collaboration & vs. Short-term Disincentives Competition “Resilience” is

GROUND RULES 1. We will play two sets of rounds (“practice” & “for real”)

WINNERS & LOSERS Losing Farmer(s): who end up without enough beans (OUT) All Winning

What are the chances of a disaster this year? (Based on past record) Probability

YOU (SUBSISTENCE FARMER) Go to umbrella to protect from too much r Cost =

If there’s no disaster, or if there’s a disaster but you are protected: Gain

YOU (GLOBAL DONOR) Finite budget. Options include: a) Disaster response b) Growth c) Disaster

Seasonal forecast: “La Niña”! Instead of roll of the die, flip a coin (drought:

Volatility in markets! Changes in commodity prices & exchange ra Now donor needs 2

How would you modify the game? (to make it better at capturing “resilience” issues)

Slides: 12

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DISSOLVING DISASTERS A Resilience Game where Donors Walk the Talk X E T C E P O C F N N IO S U Designed for the Rockefeller Foundation by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez

Why a game on Resilience? Incentives Collaboration & vs. Short-term Disincentives Competition “Resilience” is the adaptive of people, vs. ability Long-term institutions or complex human and natural. S RISK TAKING U T h r systems to restabilize in response to shocks e s R hold STRATEGY s P R Side effects Feedbacks I & & Delays S “Cheating the E system” S Local vs National vs

GROUND RULES 1. We will play two sets of rounds (“practice” & “for real”) 2. Game = simplified representation of reality (No questioning of game rules) 3. Decisions are individual (But consultation with team is encouraged) 4. Farmers win or lose beans (Start with 1; no sharing with others) 5. Please enter data before roll of die, every turn (Volunteers for journal manuscript? )

WINNERS & LOSERS Losing Farmer(s): who end up without enough beans (OUT) All Winning Farmer: Most points accumulated individually Winning Village: Most farmers still living in the village Winning Donor: Most points accumulated collectively by farmers

What are the chances of a disaster this year? (Based on past record) Probability of Regional Drought = 1 in 6 Probability of Regional Flood = in 6 1

YOU (SUBSISTENCE FARMER) Go to umbrella to protect from too much r Cost = 1 Go to bucket to protect from too little rain

If there’s no disaster, or if there’s a disaster but you are protected: Gain 2 If there’s Drought or Flood and you’re not protected: Pay 4 Not enough beans to pay? OUT! practice

YOU (GLOBAL DONOR) Finite budget. Options include: a) Disaster response b) Growth c) Disaster risk reduction

LET’S PLAY!

Seasonal forecast: “La Niña”! Instead of roll of the die, flip a coin (drought: 50% chanc

Volatility in markets! Changes in commodity prices & exchange ra Now donor needs 2 special beans for what used to take

How would you modify the game? (to make it better at capturing “resilience” issues) 1. Select a theme that matters but isn’t well represented 2. Propose a few simple changes in rules & narrative 3. Test the new variant 4. Make this “your” game!