Disasters and Climate Change Adaptation AEMA Stakeholder Summit

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Disasters and Climate Change Adaptation AEMA Stakeholder Summit October 29, 2008 Leduc, Alberta Dan

Disasters and Climate Change Adaptation AEMA Stakeholder Summit October 29, 2008 Leduc, Alberta Dan Sandink Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction

Introduction n n n ICLR Global trends Canadian disasters and disaster trends Hazards and

Introduction n n n ICLR Global trends Canadian disasters and disaster trends Hazards and vulnerability Alberta Adaptation and disaster mitigation Conclusion

ICLR n n Created in 1997 by Canadian insurers to address rising natural disaster

ICLR n n Created in 1997 by Canadian insurers to address rising natural disaster losses Affiliated with the University of Western Ontario u Offices n in London and Toronto 30 Scientists associated with ICLR u Engineering, social sciences, atmospheric sciences, geophysics n A focus on disaster mitigation and prevention u Climate change adaptation

Global Occurrences: Nat Cats • Thousands of fatalities and/or hundreds of thousands homeless •

Global Occurrences: Nat Cats • Thousands of fatalities and/or hundreds of thousands homeless • Supra-regional, international assistance required • Exceptional monetary losses Munich Re, 2008 Geophysical events Meteorological events Climatological events Hydrologic events

Global Costs: Nat Cats Munich Re, 2008 Total losses Insured losses

Global Costs: Nat Cats Munich Re, 2008 Total losses Insured losses

Disasters in Canada

Disasters in Canada

Canadian Disaster Database n Criteria for inclusion: u Meets at least one of the

Canadian Disaster Database n Criteria for inclusion: u Meets at least one of the following: 10 or more people killed F 100 or more people affected/injured/evacuated or homeless F An appeal for national/international assistance F Historical significance F Significant damage/interruption of normal processes such that the community affect cannot recover on its own F Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters in Canada, 1900 -2005 Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada,

Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters in Canada, 1900 -2005 Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters 1900 -2005 Flood is most common British Columbia Ontario Quebec

Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters 1900 -2005 Flood is most common British Columbia Ontario Quebec Maritimes Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters 1900 -2005 Alberta Drought is most Manitoba Saskatchewan common, floods

Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters 1900 -2005 Alberta Drought is most Manitoba Saskatchewan common, floods are second most common Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

Disaster Database Number of Catastrophic Events Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

Disaster Database Number of Catastrophic Events Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

Disaster Database n Recent significant disaster events: u u u n Prairie Drought, 1980

Disaster Database n Recent significant disaster events: u u u n Prairie Drought, 1980 F $5. 8 B Ice Storm, 1998 F $5. 4 B Prairie Drought, 1988 F $4. 1 B Saguenay Flood, 1996 F $1. 7 B Red River Flood, 1997 F $817 M Earthquake risk u Estimates in the 10 s and 100 s of billions Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

Insurance Payouts Large Payout Events by Hazard, 1983 -2005 Number of Events IBC, 2000;

Insurance Payouts Large Payout Events by Hazard, 1983 -2005 Number of Events IBC, 2000; 2007

Insurance Payouts n Most expensive disasters for Canadian insurance industry (adjusted to 2005) u

Insurance Payouts n Most expensive disasters for Canadian insurance industry (adjusted to 2005) u 1998, Ontario and Quebec ice storm F $1. 95 B u August 19, 2005 heavy rainfall and wind event, GTA/Ontario F $500 u Hail event, Calgary, 1991 F $444 IBC, 2007; 2000 M M

Factors in Increasing Trends

Factors in Increasing Trends

Hazards & Vulnerability n Disasters occur when hazards trigger vulnerability Hazards Potentially damaging events

Hazards & Vulnerability n Disasters occur when hazards trigger vulnerability Hazards Potentially damaging events • Floods • Hurricanes • Droughts Vulnerability Disaster Risk Propensity to experience impacts (susceptibility) • Socioeconomic characteristics • Location of development

Vulnerability Factors Internal Sphere External Socioeconomic Biophysical Factors affecting individuals: Household income & levels

Vulnerability Factors Internal Sphere External Socioeconomic Biophysical Factors affecting individuals: Household income & levels and concentration of wealth Social capital/social networks, education Individual risk perceptions/adoption of mitigative adjustments Topography Local environmental conditions Land-use patterns State of infrastructure Building characteristics Environmental degradation Factors affecting the community: Local government policies and institutional arrangements Urbanization Population density, size of population Development in hazard prone areas Infrastructure funding, maintenance Dependence on technology Local economic circumstances Institutional arrangements at national & provincial level External economic context International influences Climate trends Severe storms Weather events Climate change Adapted from Füssel (2007). Sources: Cutter et al. , 2000; Cutter et al. , 2003; de Sherbinin et al. , 2007; Dore, 2003; Etkin, 1999; Etkin et al. , 2004; Field et al. , 2007; Hebb & Mortsch, 2007; Shrubsole, 2000

Vulnerability Factors Canadians Living in Urban Areas, Millions Statistics Canada, 2001

Vulnerability Factors Canadians Living in Urban Areas, Millions Statistics Canada, 2001

Climate Change n Climate Change u n Increasing energy in the atmospheric system Extreme

Climate Change n Climate Change u n Increasing energy in the atmospheric system Extreme events will become more common Drought, extreme rainfall, heavy rainfall, higher temperatures, high wind events, health impacts u IPCC, 2007: “Very High Confidence” u n Impacts are largely local/regional Field et al. , 2007

Alberta

Alberta

Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters in Alberta 1900 -2005 Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada,

Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters in Alberta 1900 -2005 Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters in Alberta 1900 -2005 Frank Slide, 1903 70 Dead, 23

Meteorological and Hydrologic Disasters in Alberta 1900 -2005 Frank Slide, 1903 70 Dead, 23 Injured Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada, 2007

Issues for Alberta n Vulnerability issues in Alberta: u Growing population F Growing urban

Issues for Alberta n Vulnerability issues in Alberta: u Growing population F Growing urban population F Increasing wealth u Reliance on rivers for water u Reliance on irrigation F u Alberta has 2/3 of Canada’s irrigated lands Historical urban flood issues From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007

Population From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007

Population From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007

Hazard Vulnerable Areas Google Maps, Alberta Environment

Hazard Vulnerable Areas Google Maps, Alberta Environment

Hail, Drought & Flood in Alberta

Hail, Drought & Flood in Alberta

Hail n n Highest frequency of hail is in Central/Western Alberta between 1977 and

Hail n n Highest frequency of hail is in Central/Western Alberta between 1977 and 1993 – 3 -7 days per warm months (May-September) From 1900 -2005, 36 hail related disasters in Canada u n 20 of these were in Alberta Most costly hailstorm in Canada: September 1991 in Calgary u 116, 311 claims u $342, 745, 000 (1991 $) u $ 475, 646, 122 (2008 $) Etkin & Brun, 2001; IBC, 2006; Public Safety Canada, 2007

Hail Major Multiple-Payment Occurrences: Hail Minimum: $2 M 18/26 were in AB 7/8 events

Hail Major Multiple-Payment Occurrences: Hail Minimum: $2 M 18/26 were in AB 7/8 events >$50 M were in Alberta Millions of Dollars, Adjusted to 2006 IBC 2000; 2008

Hail n n Studies suggest that frequency of hail events is increasing in Alberta

Hail n n Studies suggest that frequency of hail events is increasing in Alberta u Etkin & Brun (2001) found statistically significant increase when comparing occurrences between 1977 -1982 and 1983 -1993 u But not in other provinces Research on climate change impacts on hail is limited in Canada u n A 2008 study found that hail occurrences will increase as the climate changes in Australia Possible climate change impacts u Hail associated with severe thunderstorms u Extreme weather events (including severe thunderstorms, convective storms) are expected to increase as the climate changes Leslie et al. , 2008; White & Etkin, 1997

Drought n Drought is a normal part of the prairie ecosystem u Research has

Drought n Drought is a normal part of the prairie ecosystem u Research has revealed that pre-settlement droughts in the prairies were more severe, and the post-settlement climate has been relatively favourable F Prolonged drought over 1 -2 years in length more frequent in presettlement periods Sauchyn et al. , 2003; Images: Natural Resources Canada

Temperature Trends Average temperatures since 1895 from 12 prairie climate stations prairies Average increase

Temperature Trends Average temperatures since 1895 from 12 prairie climate stations prairies Average increase in mean temp: 1. 6°C From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007; Environment Canada, 2005

Climate Change and Drought n According to a 2008 report from Government of Canada:

Climate Change and Drought n According to a 2008 report from Government of Canada: u “Increases in water scarcity represent the most serious climate risk” for the Prairie Provinces n Lower summer stream flows n Falling lake levels n Retreating glaciers n Increasing soil-, surface-water deficits n Greater number of dry years n Could constrain rapid economic development and population growth in Alberta From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007

Climate Change and Drought n n Smaller amount of snowfall, rain instead of snow

Climate Change and Drought n n Smaller amount of snowfall, rain instead of snow in the winter u Snow accumulation is already decreasing (Akinremi et al. , 1999) u Possibly more precipitation in the winter Earlier peaks in runoff and stream flows u n n Lower late-season water supplies Predictions of increased summer heat and decreased growing season precipitation Reduced supplies for communities that rely on rivers for water supply (e. g. , Calgary, which relies on Bow and Elbow Rivers) u Reduced glacial melt From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007; Timilsina & Kralovic 2005

Days Warmer than 30°C Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis

Days Warmer than 30°C Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis

Drought n Wildfire: u Increased risk of wildfire – risk increased by 20 -30%

Drought n Wildfire: u Increased risk of wildfire – risk increased by 20 -30% in prairie regions over next 60 years u Earlier onset of spring and summerlike conditions will increase the length of the fire season (season could increase by 20 days over the next 50 years) u Wildfires can create flood risk F Increased flood risk due to hydrophobic soils, loss of vegetation during postwildfire period F Dryer conditions mean organic soils dry and burn with the forest, total removal of vegetation F Reduced ability to store water From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007; Wotton & Flannigan, 1993

Post-Wildfire Risks n Kelowna: Post-wildfire flood risk u Increase between 5 and 15 times

Post-Wildfire Risks n Kelowna: Post-wildfire flood risk u Increase between 5 and 15 times the pre-fire 1 in 200 year flows u Created approx. $10 M in damage risk u $2 M in stream-road crossing improvements

Flood n n n Likely the most significant risk for urban communities There will

Flood n n n Likely the most significant risk for urban communities There will be increased pressure on existing stormwater management infrastructure u Heavy rainfall, increased development Heavy precipitation events have increased in in frequency in south-western Canada, 1950 -1995 (May-June-July period) u n Light precipitation events have decreased in frequency Heavy rainfall events expected in increase in frequency in changing climate Akinremi, 1999; Groisman et al. , 2005; From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007; Stone et al. , 2000

Flood n Southern Alberta, 2005 u $84, 000 in DFAA payouts (2005 $) u

Flood n Southern Alberta, 2005 u $84, 000 in DFAA payouts (2005 $) u $55, 000 in provincial disaster relief payouts (2005 $) u $300, 000 in Insurance payouts u Calgary: June, 2005 F F n 13, 500 claims $144. 5 million in insurance payouts (2005 $) Southern Alberta, 1995 u $34, 889, 155 in DFAA payouts (1995 $) F Provincial Share: $6, 964, 285 u $12, 672, 842 in provincial disaster relief payouts (1995 $) u $20, 764, 000 in insurance payouts (1995 $) Personal Communication, Insurance Bureau of Canada, Alberta and the North Division; IBC, 2008; PSC, 2007; Public Safety Canada

Edmonton, 2004 n 2 severe rainfall events in July, 2004 July 2 - 75

Edmonton, 2004 n 2 severe rainfall events in July, 2004 July 2 - 75 mm u July 11 - 150 mm (~1 in 200 year event) u July 11 storm part of the system that hit Peterborough on July 15 u n 9, 500 insurance claims for sewer backup $143 M for sewer backup u Total of $166 M for all damages u IBC, 2006; Klassen & Seifert, 2006

Urban Flood Impacts n n Infrastructure damage Business interruption Damage to homes Environmental impacts

Urban Flood Impacts n n Infrastructure damage Business interruption Damage to homes Environmental impacts Utilities in Basement

Extreme Rainfall n Overland flows caused by extreme rain u Caused directly by intense

Extreme Rainfall n Overland flows caused by extreme rain u Caused directly by intense rain F e. g. , when rain exceeds 100 year capacity of major systems and/or where major systems are poorly defined u Occur outside of formally defined floodplain F Generally, risk maps have not been identified in riverine flood

Extreme Rainfall – Overland Flow Routes Vs. Riverine Flooding UMA. 2005. City of Peterborough

Extreme Rainfall – Overland Flow Routes Vs. Riverine Flooding UMA. 2005. City of Peterborough Flood Reduction Master Plan. UMA: Mississauga

Mitigation and Prevention (Adaptation)

Mitigation and Prevention (Adaptation)

Climate Change Adaptation n n Climate Change Mitigation u Reducing GHG emissions, improve NRG

Climate Change Adaptation n n Climate Change Mitigation u Reducing GHG emissions, improve NRG efficiency u “Climate Protection” u Global and long-term Climate Change Adaptation u Reducing negative impacts, or enhancing positive impacts of climate change u Local, short- to long-term u Emergency management and disaster mitigation F F Accounting for increased frequency and severity of climate/weather related extreme events Enhancing resilience to these events Bruce, 1999; Lemmen & Warren, 2004; Mehdi et al. , 2006

Adaptation n Risk Management u n Identify, analyze, evaluate, identify options, implement and monitor

Adaptation n Risk Management u n Identify, analyze, evaluate, identify options, implement and monitor mitigation strategies Risks change as the climate changes u Infrastructure has been based on assumption of a static climate F n E. g. , 1 in 100 year event Comprehensive adaptation plans require multiple stakeholders u Infrastructure, social issues, environmental issues, buildings, landuse planning, water resources, emergency management, etc.

By 2070, current “ 20 year” events could occur every 10 years

By 2070, current “ 20 year” events could occur every 10 years

Climate Change n n Scenarios should be regionalized IDF curve study for the City

Climate Change n n Scenarios should be regionalized IDF curve study for the City of London, Ontario (Prodanovic & Simonovic, 2007 – UWO) u n Identified potential changes in precipitation under climate change scenario F Rainfall magnitude and intensity will be different in the future F Wet scenario revealed significant increase in rainfall magnitudes and frequencies Applying IDFs to assess vulnerability (current study) Image: Prodanovic & Simonovic, 2007

Climate Change Adaptation n Addressing the hazard u u n Flood management structures Hail

Climate Change Adaptation n Addressing the hazard u u n Flood management structures Hail suppression F Alberta Hail Suppression Project • Reduce hail damage in urban areas (Calgary and Red Deer) F Funded by the insurance industry Addressing vulnerability (behaviour changes) u u Urban flood reduction education programs (e. g. , Edmonton) Water conservation initiatives Public/online access to flood maps Planning for hazards F u Risk maps and land-use restrictions Fire. Smart program (Partners in Protection, based in Edmonton)

Public Behaviour n Edmonton and Toronto u Overall, Edmonton respondents more knowledgeable and more

Public Behaviour n Edmonton and Toronto u Overall, Edmonton respondents more knowledgeable and more of them had taken mitigative action than Toronto respondents F Significant differences in perceptions/behaviours between case cities u Higher rate of attending public meetings related to flood (14% vs. 5%) u More likely to think that the City was doing something about flood risk u Leading funding/education program

Alberta Flood Risk Map Information System From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing

Alberta Flood Risk Map Information System From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate, 2007

Conclusions n n n Disaster frequency has increased, Globally, in Canada and in Alberta

Conclusions n n n Disaster frequency has increased, Globally, in Canada and in Alberta Disasters are hazards + vulnerabilities Severe losses from drought, hail, flood in Alberta Climate change scenarios indicate increased risk A substantial portion of climate change adaptation will include improved disaster mitigation u Regional, local approach

Thank you Dan Sandink, M. A. Manger, Resilient Communities and Research Institute for Catastrophic

Thank you Dan Sandink, M. A. Manger, Resilient Communities and Research Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction October 29, 2008