Disaster epidemiology and risk assessment in SEE countries

Disaster epidemiology and risk assessment in SEE countries Elisaveta Stikova, Ronald La. Porte, Faina Linkov, David Piposzar, Stebbins Samuel

Learning objectives n n Main learning objective is to present disaster epidemiology data of the SEE countries To teach students how to use hazard analysis and vulnerabilities assessment for risk disaster analysis To explain how standard disaster indicators like number of events, number of deaths, umber of victims and economical lost can be used for disaster impact evaluation To explain the meaning of hazard risk management framework matrix as a practical tool for understanding disaster preparedness

Risk assessment and disaster managemen in SEE countries Elisaveta Stikova n Present position n 1991 -Present, Professor, University “Ss. Cyril and Methodius”, Medical faculty, Skopje, Macedonia (courses: Occupational Health, Public Health, Medical Ecology, Hygiene 1994 – Present, Director and Advisor, National Public Health Institute, Skopje, Macedonia 2009 – Fulbright Visiting Scholar, Pittsburg University, Graduate School of Public Health – New Educational Pathway for Global Public Heath Security

Risk assessment and disaster management in SEE countries Co-Authors and collaborators: n n Ronald La. Porte, Ph. D, UPGSPH, Director, Disease Monitoring and Telecommunication, WHO Collaborating center Faina Linkov, Ph. D, Assistant Professor, Cancer Institute David Piposzar, MPH, UPGSPH, PPLI Co-director Stebbins Samuel, MD, MPH, UPCPHP Principal Investigator/Director, Center for Public Health Preparedness

Hazard and vulnerability analysis for risk assessment n n Risk assessment – evaluation of natural and man made hazards Disaster risk – number of events per year or incidence of disaster Disaster ranking (disaster risk for each country) Disaster impact – relative vulnerability n n n Number of events and trends, Number of deaths and victims (affected population) Economic lost

Distribution of different hazards and trends - Albania, 1974 -2006 Flood 32% 2 0 Total number of natural hazards Poly. (Total number of natural hazards) 2004 -2006 1 1999 -2003 Earthquake Drought 3 1994 -1998 18% 4 1989 -1993 10% Epidemic 5 1984 -1988 Extreme 10% Temperature 6 1979 -1983 5% Slides 5% Transport Accident 10% Windstorm 5% 1974 -1978 5% Number of events Industrial Accident

Hazard incidence and number of deaths due to each hazard-Albania, 1974 -2006 6 120 5 100 4 80 3 60 2 40 2004 -2006 1999 -2003 1994 -1998 0 1989 -1993 0 1984 -1988 1 1979 -1983 20 Number of events 140 1974 -1978 Number of deaths Total number of death due to natural and technological hazards Total number of hazards (natural and technology)

Total number of hazards and affected population - Albania, 1974 -2006 6 3000 5 2500 4 2000 3 1500 2 1000 2004 -2006 1999 -2003 1994 -1998 0 1989 -1993 0 1984 -1988 1 1979 -1983 500 Number of events) 3500 1974 -1978 Number of victims (000’s) Total number of victims due to natural and technological hazards Total number of hazards (natural and technology)

(industrial + transport) Technological Windstorm Landslide Flood 3500 8 3000 7 2500 6 2000 5 1500 4 3 1000 2 500 1 0 0 Number of events Total victims Extreme temperature Epidemic Earthquake Drought Number of victims (000’s) Hazard incidence and number of victims due to each hazard-Albania, 1974 -2006 Total events

Total number of hazards and affected population - Albania, 1974 -2006 6 3000 5 2500 4 2000 3 1500 2 1000 2004 -2006 1999 -2003 1994 -1998 0 1989 -1993 0 1984 -1988 1 1979 -1983 500 Number of events 3500 1974 -1978 Number of victims (000’s) Total number of victims due to natural and technological hazards Total number of hazards (natural and technology)

(industrial + transport) Technological Windstorm Number of events Total economic loss Landslide Flood Extreme temperature Epidemic Earthquake Drought Economic loss (million USD) Hazard incidence and economic lost due to different hazard-Albania, 1974 -2006 Total events

Total economic damages reported (2003 US$ million) Total number of hazards (natural and technology) 5 4 3 2 0 2004 -2006 1999 -2003 1994 -1998 1989 -1993 1984 -1988 1 Number of events 6 1979 -1983 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1974 -1978 Economic loss (million USD) Total number of hazards and economic losses - Albania, 1974 -2006

Epidemic Transport 15% Accident 8% Slides 31% Flood 2004 -2006 8% 8% 1999 -2003 Wildfire 15% 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1994 -1998 15% Drought 1989 -1993 Windstorm Number of events Distribution of different hazards and trends– Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bi. H), 1989 -2006 Total number of natural hazards Poly. (Total number of natural hazards)

Hazard incidence and number of deaths due to each hazard-Bi. H, 1989 -2006 50 40 30 20 10 0 Number of events Number of deaths 60 Total number of death due to natural and technological hazards Total number of hazards (natural and technology) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Hazard incidence and total number of victims due to each hazard-Bi. H, 1989 -2006 Total victims Total events 4 2500 3 2000 1500 2 1000 1 500 0 Windstorm Wildfire Transport Accident Slide Flood Epidemic 0 Drought Number of victims (00’s) 3000 Number of events 5 3500

Total number of hazards and affected population - Bi. H, 1989 -2006 3000 10 9 2500 8 6 5 1500 4 1000 3 2004 -2006 0 1999 -2003 2 1994 -1998 500 Number of events 7 2000 1989 -1993 Number of victimes Total number of victims due to natural and technological hazards Total number of hazards (natural and technology)

Hazard incidence and economic lost due to different hazard-Bi. H, 1989 -2006 Total events 400 4 350 300 3 250 200 2 150 100 1 50 Windstorm Wildfire Transport Accident Slide Flood 0 Epidemic 0 Number of events 5 450 Drought Economic loss (million USD) Total economic loss

2 0 3% Industrial Accident 4 30% Flood 2004 -2006 13% Transport 13% Accident Extreme Temperature 1999 -2003 6% 6 1994 -1998 13% Wildfire 8 1989 -1993 Earthquake 1984 -1988 6% 10 1979 -1983 16% 12 1974 -1978 Windstorm Drought Number of events Distribution of different hazards and trends - Bulgaria, 1974 -2006 Total number of natural hazards Poly. (Total number of natural hazards)

Hazard incidence and number of deaths due to each hazard-Bulgaria, 1974 -2006 Total events 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 120 100 80 60 40 20 Windstorm Wildfire Transport Accident Industrial Accident Flood Extreme temperature Earthquake 0 Drought Number of deaths 140 Number of events Total deaths

Hazard incidence and total number of victims due to each hazard-Bulgaria, 1974 -2006 12 12000 10 10000 8 8000 6 6000 4 4000 2 2000 0 Windstorm Wildfire Transport Accident Industrial Accident Flood Extreme temperature Earthquake 0 Number of events Total events 14000 Drought Number of victims Total victims

Total number of hazards and affected population - Bulgaria, 1974 -2006 Total number of victims due to natural and technological hazards 12 12000 10 10000 8 8000 6 6000 4 4000 2 2004 -2006 1999 -2003 1994 -1998 1989 -1993 1984 -1988 0 1979 -1983 2000 0 Number of events 14000 1974 -1978 Number of victims Total number of hazards (natural and technology)

Total number of hazards and economic losses - Bulgaria, 1974 -2006 Total number of hazards (natural and technology) 10 8 6 4 2004 -2006 1999 -2003 1994 -1998 1989 -1993 1984 -1988 2 0 Number of events 12 1979 -1983 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1974 -1978 Economic loss (million USD 2003) Total economic damages reported (2003 US$ million)

Total events 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Windstorm Wildfire Transport Accident Industrial Accident Flood Extreme temperature Earthquake 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Number of events Total economic loss Drought Economic loss (million USD 2003) Hazard incidence and economic lost due to different hazard-Bulgaria, 1974 -2006

7 6 5 4 3 2 26% Flood 2004 -2006 20% Transport Accident 1999 -2003 0 1994 -1998 1 1989 -1993 Windstorm Drought Earthquake 7% 7% 7% Extreme Wildfire 20% 13% Temperature Number of events Distribution of different hazards and trends - Croatia, 1989 -2006 Total number of natural hazards Poly. (Total number of natural hazards)

Hazard incidence and number of deaths due to each hazard-Croatia, 1989 -2006

Hazard incidence and total number of victims - Croatia, 1989 -2006 1 0 0 Windstorm 500 Wildfire 2 Accident 1000 Transport 3 Flood 1500 temperature 4 Extreme 2000 Earthquake 5 Number of events Total events 2500 Drought Number of victims Total victims

Total number of hazards and economic losses - Croatia, 1989 -2006 Total events 300 4 250 200 3 150 100 2 1 50 0 Windstorm Wildfire Accident Transport Flood temperature Extreme Earthquake 0 Number of events 5 350 Drought Economic loss (million USD) Total economic loss

6% Extreme Temperature 13% 19% 44% Flood 4 3 2 1 0 2004 -2006 6% 6% 5 1999 -2003 Transport Accident 6% 6 1994 -1998 Wildfire Drought Epidemic 7 1989 -1993 Windstorm Number of events Distribution of different hazards and trends - Macedonia, 1989 -2006 Total number of natural hazards Poly. (Total number of natural hazards)

Hazard incidence and number of deaths due to each hazard-Macedonia, 1989 -2006 Total events 7 6 150 5 100 4 50 2 0 1 Windstorm Wildfire Transport Accident Flood Extreme temperature Epidemic 3 Number of events 8 200 Drought Number of deaths 250 Total deaths

Total number of hazards and affected population - Macedonia, 1989 -2006 Total number of victims due to natural and technological hazards Total number of hazards (natural and technology) 8 6 80000 5 60000 4 40000 3 2 20000 1 2004 -2006 1999 -2003 0 1994 -1998 0 Number of events 7 100000 1989 -1993 Number of victims 120000

Hazard incidence and total number of victims due to each hazard-Macedonia, 1989 -2006 Total events 7 100000 6 80000 5 60000 4 40000 3 2 20000 Windstorm Wildfire Transport Accident Flood Extreme temperature Epidemic 0 1 Number of events 8 120000 Drought Number of victims Total victims

Total economic loss Total events 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 7 6 5 4 3 2 Windstorm Wildfire Transport Accident Flood Extreme temperature Epidemic 1 Number of events 8 Drought Economic loss (million USD) Hazard incidence and economic lost due to different hazard-Macedonia, 1989 -2006

Total number of hazards and economic losses - Macedonia, 1989 -2006 6 5 4 3 2 Data Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database 0 2004 -2006 1999 -2003 1 1994 -1998 0 7 Number of events 8 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1989 -1993 Economic loss (million USD) Total economic damages reported (2003 US$ million) Total number of hazards (natural and technology)

Distribution of different hazards and trends – Si. M*, 1989 -2006 Industrial Accident *Serbia and Montenegro - Si. M 6 4 2 0 2004 -2006 Flood 8 1999 -2003 34% 10 1994 -1998 Misc Accident 4% 8% 12 1989 -1993 Transport 26% Accident Number of events Windstorm 4% Earthquake 4% Wildfire 4% Epidemic 8% Extreme 8% Temperature Total number of natural hazards Poly. (Total number of natural hazards)

Hazard incidence and number of deaths due to each hazard-Si. M, 1989 -2006 12 70 10 60 8 50 40 6 30 4 20 2 10 2004 -2006 1999 -2003 0 1994 -1998 0 Number of events 80 1989 -1993 Number of deaths 90 Total number of death due to natural and technological hazards Total number of hazards (natural and technology) 14

Total number of hazards and affected population - Si. M, 1989 -2006 12 70000 10 60000 50000 8 40000 6 30000 4 20000 2004 -2006 0 1999 -2003 0 1994 -1998 2 1989 -1993 10000 Number of events 14 90000 80000

Hazard incidence and total number of victims due to each hazard-Si. M, 1989 -2006 Total victims 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 Windstorm Wildfire Transport Accident Misc Accident Transport Accident Flood Extreme temperature 0 Epidemic 20000 Earthquake Number of victims 140000 Number of events Total events

Distribution of nuclear power plants and research facilities in SEE countries

Country-wise hazard matrix H a z a r d s Country Albania Earthquake X Bosnia and Herzegovina Drought Extreme Temperature Windstorm X X X Flood Land slides X X Wildfire X X Epi. Demic Technological X X Bulgaria X X X X Croatia X X X X X Republic of Macedonia Serbia and Montenegro X X

Disaster Impact Ranking Country Disaster ranking Disaster impact ranking Cumulative rank Albania 10 5 9 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 6 5 Bulgaria 5 8 7 Croatia 9 5 8 Republic of Macedonia 4 4 4 Moldova 8 3 6 Romania 2 2 2 Serbia 7 5 3 Montenegro 7 5 3 Slovenia 6 7 10 Turkey 1 1 1

Average annual disaster incidence and major hazards and vulnerability of SEE countries Annual average incidence of major hazards Country Drought Earthquake Flood related Wind storm Technology related Albania 0. 12 0. 09 0. 24 0. 06 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0. 17 X 0. 28 0. 17 Bulgaria 0. 21 0. 15 0. 27 0. 15 Croatia 0. 28 0. 06 0. 22 0. 17 Macedonia 0. 17 X 0. 22 0. 11 Serbia and Montenegro 0. 17 0. 06 0. 50 0. 56 Source: Annual average incidence and death computed using EM-DAT, exposed population UNDP

Average annual disaster incidence and major hazards and vulnerability of SEE countries Annual average of deaths due to all hazards Drought Earthquake Floods Albania 7. 82 NA 155, 688 131, 704 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3. 72 71397 NA NA Bulgaria 6. 64 325, 406 NA 275, 537 Croatia 8. 61 NA 30, 928 108, 929 Macedonia 13. 39 NA NA 17, 784 Serbia and Montenegro 10. 00 NA NA 321, 934 Country Exposed population Source: Annual average incidence and death computed using EM-DAT, exposed population UNDP

Country 1 2 3 4 5 Albania S N N Albania N N S S G Bi. H N N S Bi. H N N U N S Bulgaria N N S Croatia S S N N S Croatia N N S Macedonia N N N Macedonia N N S S S Emergency preparedness 1. Emergency response planning 2. Exercises 3. Public awareness 4. Communication & information management systems 1. Technical emergency Response capacity Institutional capacity building 1. Decentralized emergency management system 1. Sommunity participation 2. Legislative framework 3. Training, education & knowledge sharing 4. International sooperation Risk assessment Risk mitigation investments 1. Warning and monitoring systems 2. Hazard mapping and land-use planning 3. Code refinement and enforcement 4. Hazard-specific risk mitigation Country 1 2 3 4 Albania N N N S G Bi. H N N Bulgaria N N N Croatia S N Macedonia S S Catastrophe risk financing 1. Ex-ante funding arrangements 2. Catastrophe insurance pool 3. Reserve funds 4. Contigent capital facility Country 1 2 3 4 Good Albania N N S Satisfactory Bi. H N N N Needs improvement/not available Bulgaria N N N U Under construction Croatia N U N N N S Macedonia N N