Diretoria de Pesquisas Base Change Reference 2010 Brazil

Diretoria de Pesquisas Base Change - Reference 2010 Brazil ECLAC National Accounts Seminar November 2013 Santiago, Chile Roberto Luís Olinto Ramos National Accounts Office IBGE

What are the reasons to change the series of the System of National Accounts? • Update the weights no longer makes sense because the recommendation is to value the constant price accounts in the previous year prices. • • Classification Database “Benchmark surveys” International recommendations

Changes in Brazilian SNA 1947 – 1989 CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 1997 - “NEW SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS” (1990 – 2004) 2007 – SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS REFERENCE 2000 (1995 – 2009) 2014 - SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS REFERENCE 2010

Initially the basic dillemas: How to proceed the updates? Wait until completing all tasks? How long? Accuracy x timeliness. Definition: the updates cannot go over and over the years.

Initially the basic dillemas: How to proceed the updates? The 2010 SUT aren´t Wait until completing all tasks? ready yet? How long? Accuracy x timeliness. Definition: the updates cannot go over and over the years.

if one takes too long… SUT SUT

Actions: No more than three years Recommendations split into three groups: immediately feasible, feasible within a short time lenght, not feasible or not important. The base change extends for five years. Setting a timeline for new revisions Seminars on methods with intense users

2010 CHANGE - Why? • CNAE 2. 0 Classification (ISIC Rev. 4) • Database • New data • Surveys periodicity (not annual) • “Benchmark surveys” • International recommendations – 2008

SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 2008

Improvements Agriculture: - data incorporation from the Census of Agriculture 2006 Manufacturing and Services: - Intermediate Consumption Survey - Trade and Transportation Margins Surveys - Treatment of government units, households, NPIs serving households;

GFCF - Research and Development: Satellite Account developed with the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation; - Software: to be estimated, the assessment is that it is possible to obtain data; - Database: no data; - Military Equipment: already estimated; - Mineral exploration: current assessment of the available sources;

Government: detailing of the IS Public Corporations (currently with non-financial corporations) Consumption: - Incorporation of data from the Household Budget Survey (POF); - Incorporation of fiscal data of households - Model for allocation of rents based on the Census of Population 2010; - New model for estimating consumption

Multinational Enterprises: we adopted the recommendation Social Security Contributions: The classification of contributions in pension or non pension will not be adopted. That is, there is no detailed information. As for the benefits, disaggregated data is available.

Defined benefits and defined contributions Although there is no specific classification for the operations of this type of plans in the 2008 SNA, their identification is relevant for allocating the contributions. In Brazil, there are technical and operational issues for implementing the recommendations of identifying the type of scheme contributions and benefits, considering the size of the public sector in Brazil and the wide variety of situations among states and municipalities. It remains being the treatment for the Union, with the defined benefit system, but it must consider all provision funds itself (FUNPRESP) to the new servers, which is being regulated, and whose system should be a defined contribution plan.

Value of life insurance production Recommendation to replace the compensation for occurred damages in the calculation of the adjusted production. Not relevant in the case of Brazil, who have no history of natural disasters that have a strong impact on claims paid.

Transition

• 3 years • Seminars for dissemination • Methodology reports available at the website • Interruption of the definitive national accounts series (SUT y IEA) • Quarterly accounts as reference • Revision of the complete annual series 1995 -2005 (SUT and IEA) • Revision of the quarterly series 1990 -2005 (1990 ou 1995? ) Regional Accounts (2002) and GDP Municipalities •

Definitions 2010 Database 2011/10 . . . . QUARTERLY Regional Municipalities 2011 1995 1996. I/2013. IV 2012

Schedule 2010 Base 2012 Methodological definitions, 2010 database compilation, and estimation of Brazilian SNA 2010 at current prices. 2013 Estimation of 2011 at current and constant prices and 2010 revision (result of 2011) revision from 2010 to 1995 2014 Estimation of 2012, quarterly series, Regional Accounts and Municipalities GDP 2015 Publication 1995 -2012 – first quarter

Thank you.