Directorate of Surveys SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Brazil

Directorate of Surveys SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Brazil Roberto Luís Olinto Ramos Head of National Accounts Co-ordination roberto. olinto@ibge. gov. br October, 2007

Doing statistics and national accounts in Brazil Population 186, 777, 562 Area 8, 514, 876 Km 2 IBGE 27 states 27 unities (each state) 5, 564 municipalities 532 agencies

The Brazilian National Statistical System Coordination (IBGE) Statistics of National scope (IBGE) Statistics of Regional scope Administrative Registers (State Statistics Agencies (Ministries / Secretariats / OREs) Central Bank Articulated database (Regional/Sectorial/National)

Institutional organization Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics Directorate of Surveys SNA - Latin-American organization Statistical offices – Brazil, Argentina, Colombia Bolívia Peru, Cuba, Mexico Central Banks – Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Republica Dominicana, Nicaragua. . .

Directorate of Surveys Organogram Directorate of Surveys Population Census Committee Technical Management of Population Census Technical Management of Agricultural Census Coordination of Agriculture Surveys Coordination of Economic Statistics and Classifications Management of Business Register Management of Dissemination Management of Planning and Budget Coordination Coordination of Mining and of Population of Services of Household of Prices of Methods of National Manufacturing and Social and Trade Surveys Indexes and Quality Accounts Surveys Indicators

National Accounts in Brazil Some history

Getúlio Vargas Foundation / IBGE Four accounts Current prices and constant prices with a fixed year 1947 - 1989 “benchmark” each five years (0 and 5) with the Agriculture and Industry Census Values extrapolated with volume and price indices Current values for some activities (Government, Central Bank etc. )

December 1997 SNA based on SNA (1993) SUT – IEA Current prices and previous year 1990 - 2003 SUT – 80 products and 43 activities IEA – Institutional Sectors Values extrapolated with volume and price indices Current values for some activities (Government, Central Bank etc. )

1990 • Crash in the IBGE Budget • Last Census 1985 • No annual economic statistics => no benchmark 1995 Redefinition of economic statistics

Economic Statistics • New model (since 1995) • Basis of the new system – Business Register - CEMPRE – National Classification of Economic Activities • Annual Surveys • Monthly Surveys

Statistical Production System Economics Social and demographics Demographics Census Population Count Business Register Agricultural Census Sampling Surveys Households Enterprises or Establishment Annual: PIA, PAC, PAS, PAIC, PAM, Annual: PNAD Monthly: PME Special: POF, ECINF PPM, PEVS Monthly: SNIPC, PIM, PMC Special: PINTEC Administrative Registers: Civil Register, MUNIC, MAS, PNSB Social Indicators System National Accounts System

DATA BASE FOR THE SNA

Economic Statistics (annual surveys) • Survey of Mining and Manufacturing Industries Enterprise ( PIA - Empresa) 40, 369 enterprises • Survey of Mining and Manufacturing Industries Product (PIA - Produto) • Survey of Construction Industry (PAIC) 11, 500 enterprises • Survey of Commerce (PAC) 50, 737 enterprises • Survey of Services (PAS) 67, 470 enterprises

Household Surveys • 2000 Population Census: 54 million of households • PNAD 2006: 140 thousand of households, annual • Urban informality -ECINF 2004: 54 thousand of households • Expenditure -POF 2002 -2003: 60 thousand of households • Employment - PME: 42 thousand of households, monthly

Agriculture Statistics • Census of Agriculture • Annual Surveys – Municipal Agricultural Production Temporary and Permanent Crops (PAM) – Municipal Livestock Production Survey (PPM) – Extractive Agriculture and Forestry Production (PEVS) • Short-term Surveys – Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPAmonthly) – Animal slaughter, milk production, leather, eggs – Survey of Stocks

Prices Statistics (monthly) • National System of Consumer Prices Indexes (11 areas) • National System of Cost Survey and Indices of Construction – SINAPI • Producer’s Price Indices

External Sources • FISCAL DECLARATION – Ministry of Economy • Bussiness registers • Central Bank • Government • National Agency of Electric Energy - ANEEL • National Agency of Oil- ANP • External Trade - SECEX • . . . .

SNA – reference 2000 Released in March 2007

The reference 2000 SNA series incorporates in its compilation the following actions: I) New classification of products and activities, integrated with CNAE 1. 0 and ISIC Rev. 3. • Enlargement of the number of activities and products in the SUT • IEA updated with de DIPJ's data. IV) Availability of the annual surveys accomplished by the IBGE. V) Introduction of the 2002 Expenditure Household Survey as a family consumption reference. VI) Introduction of data from the Agricultural Census of 1995/6.

VII) Jobs disaggregation for production function, what enables the estimate considering the characteristics of productive units. VIII) Methodology calculation and development of the consumption of fixed capital by the Government and Non Profit institutions. IX) Distribution of the Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly intermediary consumption by activity, enabling the elimination of the fictitious sector Financial Dummy. X) Update of the methodology for estimating volume indices. Mostly for public administrations and financial intermediation that, in the previous series, were extrapolated by the demographic growth and by the economy average, respectively. Disaggregation the Non-profit institutions from Household Institutional Sector in the final consumption and in the IEA. •

=> 2000 – 2005 reviewed with all new data sources and methodological improvements =>1996 - 1999 backcasting =>1990 – 1994 maintained

Brazilian System of National Accounts QUARTERLY – 70 days after the end of a quarter ANNUAL – provisional version (T-1) - semi-definitive (? ? ) - definitive (T-2) REGIONAL – definitive (T-2) MUNICIPALITIES – GDP only (T-2) SATELLITES Tourism (project well definided) Health (project well defined) Culture (dream) R & D (dream)

SNA SUT working level 293 products 149 activities publication level 110 products 55 activities IOT each five years IEA Non-financial corporations Financial corporations General Government Households Non-profit institutions serving households Rest of the world

IEA Current Accounts I. Production II. Distribution and use of income accounts II. 1 Primary distribution of income II. 1. 1 Generation of income II. 1. 2 Allocation of Primary Income II. 2 Secondary distribution of income II. 3 Redistribitution of income in kind II. 4 Use of Income Account II. 4. 1 Use of Disposable Income II. 4. 2 Use of adjustable disposable income Accumulation Accounts III. 1 Capital Account III. 2 Financial Account

QNA • New series of the Brazilian System of Quarterly National Accounts were released in March 2007, following the reformulation of the Annual System. • QNA data are disseminated in: • current prices, • chain-linked volume indices (1995=100) and • rates of change. QNA presents data of GDP by 12 economic activities and by component of final expenditures (final consumption expenditure of households, final consumption expenditure of government, gross fixed capital formation, changes in inventories, exports and imports of good and services).

QNA Data are released for the following activities: • Agriculture, forestry and fishing • Industry: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities and Construction • Services: Commerce, Transportation, Information Services, Rents, Financial Institutions, Public Administration and Other Services Quarterly series are adjusted to annual data with a Denton type method. The data for GDP, Agriculture, Industry, Services and expenditure components, except changes in inventories, are seasonally adjusted. The X-12 ARIMA method is used for seasonal adjustment.

REGIONAL For 27 states the Production Account MUNICIPALITES GDP in current values for the 5564 municipalities SATELLITES Tourism (project well definided) + Ministry of Tourism Health (project well defined) + Ministry of Health Culture (dream) R & D (dream)

DISSEMINATION – preannounced schedule • March of year T: GDP, the demand components and the value added of the previous year with base in quarterly data for 12 economic activities in current values and volume indices, annual variation. • In the second semester, the definitive version of T-2 is published with a complete (110 products and 55 activities) SUT and an IEA. A preliminary version of T-1 with a small SUT (12 activities) was also published. • QNA data are published 70 days after the end of each quarter. In the QNA a SUT is estimated for each quarter, however only the added value of 12 economic activities is published. chained volume indices, seasonally adjust volume indices and the current values for the GDP, the components of the final demand the value added of 12 economic activities and an integrated economic account for the country, including the financial account. • Regional data for T-2 are published in December each year

Data Access · Publications : methodology and tables with a CD · Internet: all data is available for download · On-line bookstore NEXT STEPS • Financial Account until December 2007. • Balance Sheets • 2012, with reference to 2010, a new revision will be presented. (ISICRev. 4, the new Expenditure Household Survey 2007, the Agricultural Census of 2007…. . )

GDP 1995 -2005

GDP 2000 -2005 (2)

Participação das atividades no valor adicionado - 2000