Die Politische Lage Brasiliens Ursachen und Auswirkungen der

Die Politische Lage Brasiliens: Ursachen und Auswirkungen der Wirtschaftskrise Antony P. Mueller (UFS) www. continentaleconomics. com 7. Oktober 2019 Hayek-Gesellschaft Leipzig

Hintergrundinformationen

Brasilien Basisdaten Population: GDP (PPP): Unemployment: Inflation (CPI): 207. 7 million $3. 2 trillion 13. 3% 3. 4% 1. 0 % growth -0. 5% 5 -year compound annual growth $15, 603 per capita

Aracaju – Sergipe – Brazil

Aracaju

Regionale Einkommensverteilung

Daten zur Krise

• - “The years of good growth are clearly in the past, ” said Antony Mueller, a professor of economics at the Federal University of Sergipe in Brazil. • 18 de Junho de 2012 • https: //www. nytimes. com/2 012/06/18/world/americas/ group-of-20 -meets-in-amexico-outperformingbrazil. html Crise brasileira

Brazil GDP Annual Growth Rate

Brazil. GDP at constant prices (in million Brazilian reais)

Brazil. GDP in US-dollars (billion)

Brazil. Gross domestic product mais uma década perdida per capita at Purchasing Power Parity

Brazil. Unemployment Rate

Ursachenanalyse

Formação de capital Taxa de poupança

Brazil - Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) since 1960

Brazil. Budget deficit and debt ratios (in percent of gdp)

Macroeconomic Liquidity 2007 -2017 GDP real 2007 -2017

Brazil Central Bank Balance Sheet

Brazil Government Gross Debt to GDP

Geschichtlicher Hintergrund

Historischer Überblick • • • 1500 Entdeckung 1808 -1889 Monarchie 1822 Unabhängigkeit 1888 Abschaffung der Sklaverei 1889 Republik 1930 -1945 nationalistische Diktatur unter Getúlio Vargas 1956 -1961 staatskapitalistische Entwicklungspolitik unter Kubitschek 1964 -1985 Militärdiktatur 1988 Neue Verfassung 2003 -2010 Präsidentschaft Lulas 2019 - Präsidentschaft von Jair Messias Bolsonaro

Brazil – historical milestones I • 1500 - The Portuguese arrive in Brazil under the command of Pedro Álvares Cabral, who claimed this new land as his own • 1630 -1654 - Dutch occupancy of the North-East • 1808 to 1821 – The royals from Portugal relocate to Brazil and run both Brazil and their European homeland from Rio de Janeiro • 1822 – Dom Pedro I declares independence from Portugal • 1888 – Abolishment of slavery • 1889 – Proclamation of Republic • 1930 -1945 Semi-fascist Vargas dictatorship

Brazil – Historical milestones II • 1956 to 1961 - Presidency of Jucelino Kubitschek • 1960 – Relocation of capital city from Rio de Janeiro to Brasilia • 1964 -1985 Military dictatorship • 1988 - New Constitution • 1995 -2002 - Presidency of Fernando Henrique Cardoso • 2003 -2010 - Presidency of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva • 2011 -2016 (31 August) - Presidency of Dilma Rousseff • 2019 – (1 January) – Presidency of Jair Messias Bolsonaro

Aktuelle Politik

Politische Machtverteilung • Das Gesetzgebungssystem Brasiliens gibt einen übergrossen Teil der politischen Macht an die Länder im Nordosten und Norden auf Kosten des Südens und besonders von São Paulo • Der Präsident kann für Verordnungen eine Zustimmung des Kongresses innerhalb von 30 Tagen einfordern und falls keine Anlehnung erfolgt, die Verordnung erlassen

Legislative • Legislative power is exercised by the bicameral National Congress (Congresso Nacional), comprising the Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) and the Federal Senate (Senado Federal). • The Chamber of Deputies consists of representatives of the states elected every four years by direct universal suffrage. The number of deputies is in rough proportion to the population of each state, but no state can be represented in the chamber by more than 70 or by fewer than eight deputies. • This system grants a disproportionate share of political power to the states of the Northeast and North and severely underrepresents the heavily populated state of São Paulo. • The 81 -seat Federal Senate is composed of three representatives from each state and the Federal District who serve eight-year terms. Senatorial elections are held every four years, alternating between one-third (27) and the remaining twothirds (54) of the seats. Senators are directly elected by the residents of each state.

Exekutive • Executive power is exercised by the president, who is head of state and government, is directly elected to a four-year term (and is eligible for one reelection) • The executive has wide powers, particularly in economic and foreign policy, finances, and internal security. • The president can submit bills to Congress and request legislative approval within 30 days; if Congress does not comply within this period, the bill is considered approved. • The president can partly or totally veto any bill submitted by Congress • The president can issue provisional measures that remain in effect for 30 day periods.

Regionale Differenzen der Präsidentschaftswahl Wahlergebnis 2019 Einkommensverteilung

Brasilianisches Hindernisrennen • Arbeitsgesetzgebung und rechtsprechung • Steuern und Abgaben • Bürokratie • Rentensystem • Privilegienwirtschaft • Korruption • Rechtswirrwarr • Bildungs- und Ausbildungsdefizite

Brasilien – Position in wirtschaftlicher Freiheit

Wirtschaftliche Freiheit Erklärung der wirtschaftlichen Freiheitsrechte Economic freedom

Alterssicherung

Staatshaushalt

Politisches Spektrum Partei des Präsidenten • PSL – Partido Social Liberal • Sitze im Senat / 81 • Sitze im Parlament 4 / 513 Parteienlandschaft

Vielen Dank

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