Development of an Integrated Earth System Model at

Development of an Integrated Earth System Model at FRCGC Taroh MATSUNO Michio KAWAMIYA Hisashi SATO Kengo SUDO Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC)

FRCGC integrated Earth System Model

Kyousei 2 Project: Development of an Integrated Earth System Model at FRCGC PI: T. Matsuno M. Aita, A. Abe-Ouchi***, A. Ito, S. Emori, T. Oikawa**, R. Ogaito, M. Kawamiya M. Kishi*, N. Kuba, T. Kohyama*, H. Kondo, H. Sato, Ta. Suzuki, Ts. Suzuki, K. Sudo, T. Segawa, K. Takata, M. Takahashi***, M. Takigawa, K. Tanaka, Y. Tsushima, Y. Yamanaka*, C. Yoshikawa, S. Watanabe (FRCGC) M. Kimoto, K. Suzuki, T. Nakajima, H. Hasumi (CCSR/Univ. of Tokyo) T. Nagashima, T. Nozawa (NIES) T. Takemura (Kushu Univ. ) Double affiliates of FRCGC researchers: *Hokkaido Univ. , **Univ. of Tsukuba, ***CCSR/Univ. of Tokyo

Carbon Cycle Component

FRCGC Carbon Cycle Component Models: Terrestrial model • Sim-CYCLE by Itoh & Oikawa (2002) • 20 PFTs without dynamic vegetation • 5 compartments for each PFT

“DGVMization” of Sim-CYCLE DGVM: Dynamical Global Vegetation Model -> Incorporation of the effect of biome-shift into Sim-CYCLE Individual basis model, which explicitly treat 3 D forest-structure within 30 m x 30 m patches Individual characteristics Foliage Stem Root : biomass, crown diameter, crown depth : biomass, height, sapwood & heartwood diameter : biomass --- Shape of crown and stem are approximated by cylinder

FRCGC Carbon Cycle Component Models: Oceanic model • 4 -compartment ecosystem model (Oschlies & Garcon, 1998) • Treatment of carbonate system as recommended by OCMIP

Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Model • MIROC 3. 2 Intermediate Resolution Version (no flux adjustment) “borrowed” from the K-1 project • Atmosphere: CCSR/NIES/FRCGC AGCM 5. 7 T 42 L 20 Online aerosol • Ocean: COCO 3. 4 (developed by CCSR, Univ. of Tokyo) (0. 5 -1. 0)°× 1. 4°, 43 Layers + BBL

Participation in C 4 MIP • C 4 MIP: Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project – Strongly IPCC-conscious – Participants: Hadley (UK); IPSL (France); MPI (Germany); LLNL, NCAR, Berkeley, Maryland, GFDL (US); CSIRO (Australia); FRCGC (Japan) – Our “pacemaker” Kyousei Integrated Synergetic System Model of the Earth KISSME!

C 4 MIP Phase 1 Experiment • Land-atmosphere coupled run – Do not really focus on climate-carbon cycle interaction – CO 2 as a simple tracer with sources and sinks at the surface (including land use change) – Results due in Feb. 2005

Leaf Area Index (Jul. 1990) LAI （NOAA AVHRR; Jul. 1990） 7 7 3. 5 0 0 LAI　（Model; Jul. 1990）

Net Primary Production [Mg. C/ha/yr] 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 NPP （ISLSCP 17 model ave） NPP （Model; 1990 -1999 ave）

Distribution of CO 2 (1990) [ppmv] DJF [ppmv] 360 340 320 JJA

Distribution of CO 2 from land ecosystem (1990) DJF [ppmv] 330 310 JJA

Distribution of CO 2 from air-sea exchange DJF 325 320 JJA

C 4 MIP Phase 2 Experiment • Experiments with full coupled model including the ocean (like KISSME) • In parallel with Phase 1 • Protocol yet to be firmly established • “Flying leap” experiments can be its prototype. – 1%/yr increase of CO 2 emission – Experiments w/ and w/o interactions between climate and carbon cycle – Results due to Feb. 2005?

Preliminary results from a “climate of 20 th century” run with the full coupled model w/o interactions Obs. w/ interactions

Air-Sea CO 2 Exchange Obs. Nomalized for 1995 (Takahashi, 1999) Model result for 1980

Intrusion of anthropogenic CO 2 Model Obs. (Sabine et al. , 2004) Atlantic 60 S Eq. 60 N Pacific 60 S Eq. 40 N

Summary for Carbon Cycle Modeling • Preliminary results with land-atmosphere and land-atmosphere-ocean coupled models • Collaboration with the “sister project” K-1 -> tune-up of the coupled climate model • Participation in C 4 MIP -> Contribution to IPCC AR 4 • Fine-tuning of the carbon cycle components is now being carried out --- Stay tuned!