Development and assessment of Mitigatiion Adaptation Climate Change

Development and assessment of Mitigatiion / Adaptation Climate Change policy portfolios for Russian Federation Prof. Alexander ILYINSKY Financial University, Moscow Dr. Popi KONIDARI, Anna FLESSA M. Sc. National and Kapodistrian University of Athens PROMITHEAS-4 Final Conference and PROMITHEASnet 6 th International Scientific Conference, Athens 9 -11 Oct. 2013

Promitheas 4 National Workshop - 1 st International Conference Climate Policy, Sustainable Development and Green Finance 20 -21 May 2013, Moscow, Russia (Financial University)

International IFF-KEPA team members • Prof. Alexander Ilyinsky • Dr. Alexander Didenko • Dr. Sergei Petropavlovsky • Dr. Popi Konidari • MSc. Inna Lukashenko • MSc. Anna Flessa

Russia: facts and figures • Area: 17, 098, 242 sq. km • Population: 142, 500, 482 (July 2013 est. ) • GDP (purchasing power parity): $2. 555 trillion (2012 est. ) • Climate: ranges from steppes in the south through humid continental in much of European Russia; subarctic in Siberia to tundra climate in the polar north; winters vary from cool along Black Sea coast to frigid in Siberia; summers vary from warm in the steppes to cool along Arctic coast

Russian energy: facts and figures (2012 est. ) • Electricity - production: • • • 1. 064 trillion k. Wh 4 Electricity - exports: 19. 14 billion k. Wh 8 Electricity - installed generating capacity: 223. 1 million k. W 4 Electricity - from nuclear fuels: 17. 2% of total installed capacity 14 Electricity - from RES: 0, 5% of total installed capacity 179 Crude oil - production: 10. 37 million bbl/day 1 Crude oil - exports: 4. 69 million bbl/day 2 Natural gas - production: 653 billion cu m 1 Natural gas - exports: 200. 1 billion cu m 1 CO 2 emissions from consumption of energy: 1. 634 bln. Mt 4

Data collection – how we collected and our sources • Roshydromet • UNDP • Federal State • UNEP Statistics Service • ERI RAS/REA • UNFCCC • World Bank • IFC • EBRD • FAO • European • IEA Commission • WWF

Developing BAU scenario • Focus on energy efficiency and less on Renewable Energy Sources • Remove all remaining cross‐subsidies from electricity pricing • Electricity tariffs for households will remain regulated • Increasing nuclear energy to 25% of energy production

Developing OPT scenario • Reduce energy intensity in 2020 by 40% of 2007 level • Target to double GDP in ten years • Goal to add at least 20000 MW of new generating capacity • Cooperation bonds between EU and Russia especially in the area of energy • Environmental issues

Developing PES scenario • Slower implementation of innovations, • Low GDP growth rate, • Severe climate change, • Bad demography • Reflect augmented set of Governmental policies, which implemented slower with worse results.

Results of the 3 scenarios according to LEAP

AMS assessment of the policy mixtures

Best policy mixture • For criterion of environmental performance, OPT offers better grade of all scenarios; • This could be interpreted as lack of regulation (driven, perhaps, by lack of motivation) of regulatory bodies to decrease environmental impact of Russian economy. • There is definitely great leeway for improving environmental performance of the economy through implementation of new policies, many of which are currently discussed.

Thank you for your attention and cooperation!