Development and Application of a Regional DTA model

Development and Application of a Regional DTA model for the Twin Cities Jim Henricksen, Mn. DOT Steve Ruegg, WSP 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference

Presentation Outline • Need and Motivation for a DTA model • Regional Modeling Background • DTA Model Development • Model Calibration • Application • ABM to DTA development • Lessons Learned 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 2

Need and Motivation Several Major Re-Construction Projects in the region anticipated within the next few years. • I 35 W/Lake Street • TH 169 • I 94 • I 35 W River Bridge 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 3

Need and Motivation • With so many major construction projects being done during the same time period, it is not obvious what the traffic impacts will be • Therefore, a model that can estimate traffic flow changes over the entire system is needed to evaluate impacts and select the optimum construction phasing. 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 4

Regional Modeling Background • Traditional 4 -step trip-based model covers 20 -county area • 1, 601 zones • 25, 000 links • 11, 200 nodes • Activity-based model covers 19 -county area • 3, 030 zones • 55, 800 links • 23, 800 nodes 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 5

DTA Model Development • Preparation of Demand Matrices • • Synthetic Matrix Estimation adjustments done in regional model Vehicle Classes: SOV, HOV, Truck Hourly to 15 min demand conversion Custom Java program to convert CUBE matrix to Dynus. T input format • Preparation of Network • Import planning network to Dynus. T format • Deletion of centroid connectors and designation of access/egress nodes • Network checking and manual corrections 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 6

DTA Model Development • Simplified approach to toll modeling for 4 -step model • Allow toll-eligible trips • Prohibitive tolls for SOVs and Trucks • Signal Timing • Initial unconstrained assignment was conducted • Dynu. Studio tool was used to calculate default signal timing parameters • Full DTA model run, with feedback, was then run to convergence 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 7

Model Calibration: Observed Data • Mn. DOT detector data – 15 minute counts • Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday for October 2014 • Speed Data • Tom data for arterials -- average speed over a 2 -hour time period • Detector data in 15 min intervals on freeways 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 8

Model Calibration: Flow Model Calibration 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 9

Model Calibration: Fit to Counts 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 10

Link Average Speeds -- Freeways 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 11

Link Average Speeds -- Arterials 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 12

Model Calibration: Before and After Randomized Departure Times Initial Departure Profile Final Departure Profile 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 13

Model Application • Construction Impacts • I 35 W/Lake Street – 4 construction alternatives with 2 phases • TH 169 – Bridge closure impacts, subarea analysis to local roads • I 94 – Impacts with and without TH 169 closure • Planning Analysis • Impact of proposed Managed Lane flows at termini 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 14

Model Application -- Reporting Flow Difference Plots MOE’s: Vehicle Delay by range of delay/vehicle Vehicle-Hours Vehicle-Miles Selected Link statistics: Average trip length Ramp to Ramp flows for simulation input Change in demand on parallel routes 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 15

Road User Cost Assumptions Type of Vehicle User Cost per Hour User Cost per Mile Passenger vehicle $16. 00 $0. 31 Commercial vehicle $27. 30 $0. 96 Region* $16. 74 $0. 35 Road User Costs by Scenario 1. YR 1: One lane closed, bridge open YR 2: One lane closed, Bridge open, construction on I-35 W and I-94 2. One lane closed, bridge closed 3. Directional closures Daily User Cost Days of Construction Total User Cost YR 1: $195, 500 335 $65, 492, 500 YR 2: $450, 200 215 550 $96, 763, 000 162, 285, 500 $382, 000 335 $127, 970, 000 $342, 500 550 $188, 375, 000 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference

Model Application: Heat Maps to Identify Queues Dale St. Off Ramp W Kellogg Marion St. Blvd On Off Ramp Mounds/Ke 35 E to 94 WE 12 th St Off llogg Blvd Ramp th Ramp US 52 On E 12 St On On Ramp 94 W to 35 E 6 th St/US 52 Commons Ramp S Off Ramp Mounds/Ke llogg Blvd Off Ramp US 10/US 61 On Ramp Commons th US 52 On E 12 St On Ramp 6 th St/US 52 Ramp 94 W to 35 E to 94 W S Off Ramp E 12 th St Off Mounds/Ke Ramp llogg Blvd On Ramp Mounds/Ke llogg Blvd Off Ramp US 10/US 61 On Ramp PM AM Dale St. Off Ramp W Kellogg Marion St. Blvd On Off Ramp 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 17

Model Application: Speed Profile by Time 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 18

ABM to DTA – Demand Data • Twin Cities ABM Model will be used on most, if not all new planning analysis • Trip Records instead of trip tables – allows for more detailed time stratification • Cube Application developed to convert ABM to Dynus. T format trip records • Class stratification – SOV, HOV, Truck – others for VOT stratification? 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 19

ABM-compatible Network • Used True Shape network • Detailed network editing and error correction – node orientation • Used parcel-level data to identify access nodes and shares by zone • Implement Managed Lane Algorithm for tolling • Intersection control coding, aided by initial assignment 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 20

Lessons Learned • Subarea vs. Regional model application • Use of DTA travel times to inform mode share • Extracting ramp to ramp movements and other details of mining the results • Considerable time to clean networks in DTA • ABM-type detailed, discrete demand is more compatible with DTA 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 21

Potential for Future Applications • Independent estimate for dynamically-tolled lanes • Operational analysis -- queuing • “Real Time” construction management • Feedback to ABM: times and demand? • Input to simulation 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 22

Contact(s) Steve Ruegg , PE Senior Technical Principal Systems Analysis Group Steve. Ruegg@wsp. com 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 23

QUESTIONS? 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 24