Developing External and Truck Trips for a Regional

Developing External and Truck Trips for a Regional Travel Model Matt Stratton Transportation Modeler Statewide Planning Session May 15, 2017 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference

Purpose • Develop a process to extract trip tables from the Ohio Statewide Model (ODOT) for MPO models • MPO regions: • • Cleveland Columbus Cincinnati Dayton 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 2

Introduction: State of the Practice • Regional models often rely on simplified models of external and truck travel: • Driven by observed traffic counts and internal zone production/attraction models • Little known of external zones that produce/attract trips • Internal trip generation and distribution treated as closed system 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 3

Important Aspects of External Trips • External-Internal and External-External trips often not covered by Household surveys • External zone production/attraction factors hard to capture without overarching model • Internal-External work trip formation depends on Internal work opportunities compared to External zones 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 4

Important Aspects of External Trips • External-Internal workers take job opportunities from Internal workers • Leads to modeling error if not accounted for • External trips play larger role: • Near regional model boundaries • On major roadways • In smaller regions 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 5

Our Approach Larger Scale Model Core Regional Model Generalizable External trips are derived from a larger “mega” model that plays a meta role with respect to the external-internal proportions. The external trips should be sensitive to local land use. The core internal model (ABM) has to be properly scaled to reflect the external trip shares predicted by the inter-regional mega-model. Approach need not rely on statewide model and ABM to be applicable, but can be applied with a simple model for a “halo” area around a smaller region. 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 6

Our Approach 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 7

Statewide / “Mega” Model • Truck & Commercial Vehicle Trips • Transfer of Statewide models to MPO geography: • DCOM – Disaggregate Commercial Model • Disaggregate tour-based microsimulation of local delivery and service truck trips • ACOM – Aggregate Commercial Model • Aggregate econometric model that converts commodity flows to truck trips • Represents inter-urban trips that are longer than 50 miles 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 8

Statewide / “Mega” Model • Truck & Commercial Vehicle Trips • DCOM is separately applied to MPO TAZs, land use, and employment • Internal ACOM trips from Statewide model are disaggregated to MPO zones, and then scaled to the proper proportion relative to the locally applied DCOM 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 9

Making External Trips Policy-Sensitive • If MPO inputs differ from Statewide model, the following redistribution procedure is applied: • Cordon station productions and attractions from the Statewide model • Internal productions and attractions calculated based on the MPO trip generation equations for estimating IE truck and auto trip ends • Auto trip distribution done via gravity model • Truck trip distribution done with Fratar 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 10

Making External Trips Policy-Sensitive • Trip tables from the statewide model are blended with the gravity/fratar model output with internal-TAZ specific weight, �� _����� , that is normalized between 0 and 1, where a value of 0 means there is no difference between the MPO land use data and the Statewide model and the Statewide trips are used as is, and a value of 1 means one of the sources is 0 and the other is not, so the gravity/fratar results are used. 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 11

Core Regional Model • Accounting for External Auto Trips in Core ABM • Trip Production Side: • Proportion of workers commuting from internal zones to outside MPO region extracted from Statewide model (see map on next slide) • The internal work arrangement model was set with a “work outside the region” alternative. • Probabilities for this alternative driven by zonal proportions of workers leaving the region. • IE commute flow matrix used to assign internal workers to external stations 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 12

Core Regional Model 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 13

Core Regional Model • Accounting for External Auto Trips in Core ABM • Trip Attraction Side: • External workers take internal jobs (see map on next slide) • These jobs unavailable for internal workers • Proportion of jobs taken by external workers in each zone is used to calculate the number of jobs available to internal workers in each zone • Size term for the usual work location model is scaled by the ratio of total regional jobs available to internal workers relative to total internal jobs 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 14

Core Regional Model 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 15

Integration: Model Component Flow 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 16

Integration: Model Component Flow 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 17

Integration: Model Component Flow 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 18

Future Directions • This model integration was one-directional (Statewide to MPO). Twoway integration could be useful. • How should overlapping non-work trips be handled? • In absence of mega models, more regions should expand geographic halos to capture commute-sheds 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 19

Future Directions • Household Travel Surveys can be better structured to capture internal -external travel behavior. • GPS important on this point • Establishment surveys can help with external-internal travel market. • Big Data vendors can be useful for seed matrices of external-external travel. 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 20

Many Thanks To • Ohio Department of Transportation • Rebekah Anderson, Greg Giaimo • OKI Regional Council of Governments • Andrew Rohne • Miami Valley Regional Planning Commission • Ana Ramirez, Ami Parikh • Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission • Zhuojun Jiang • Northeast Ohio Areawide Coordinating Agency • Ali Makarachi • WSP USA • Chrissy Bernardo, Gaurav Vyas, Ashish Kulshrestha, Peter Vovsha 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 21

Contacts Matt Stratton Transportation Modeler Systems Analysis Group Matt. Stratton@wsp. com Chrissy Bernardo Transportation Modeler Systems Analysis Group Chrissy. Bernardo@wsp. com 16 th TRB Planning Applications Conference 22