Designing the future Orienting scenarios and cultural prototypes

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Designing the future. Orienting scenarios and cultural prototypes Ezio Manzini, CIRIS Politecnico di Milano

Designing the future. Orienting scenarios and cultural prototypes Ezio Manzini, CIRIS Politecnico di Milano

in turbulent times, the only way to forecast the future is to try to

in turbulent times, the only way to forecast the future is to try to design it. What does it mean to design the future? Who deigns the future?

the present contains many possible futures. With our actions we give a “possible future”

the present contains many possible futures. With our actions we give a “possible future” more or less possibility to influence what will be the “actual future”.

to design the future means to make some strategic moves. . . … to

to design the future means to make some strategic moves. . . … to give a favourite possible future more potential to influence the actual future that will appear.

the future is open, but its building materials and building forces are around us

the future is open, but its building materials and building forces are around us just now, in the present. the problem for us is to recognise these building materials and the drivers of change.

to design the future does not mean to invent the future … … it

to design the future does not mean to invent the future … … it means to re-orient and reconceptualise some existing drivers of change.

specific future-orienting design tools: > scenario building > cultural prototyping

specific future-orienting design tools: > scenario building > cultural prototyping

“scenario building” as a new design activity

“scenario building” as a new design activity

which kind of scenarios? policy orienting (POS) design orienting (DOS)

which kind of scenarios? policy orienting (POS) design orienting (DOS)

how a scenario is done? 1. vision 2. motivation 3. proposal

how a scenario is done? 1. vision 2. motivation 3. proposal

experiences … 3 research on scenario building and solutions development ….

experiences … 3 research on scenario building and solutions development ….

1. Sustainable Households (the Sushouse Project) funded by the Environment and Climate Research Programme

1. Sustainable Households (the Sushouse Project) funded by the Environment and Climate Research Programme of the European Community

2. Highly Customised and Contextualised Solutions (the Hi. CS Project) funded by the Growth

2. Highly Customised and Contextualised Solutions (the Hi. CS Project) funded by the Growth Programme of the European Community

3. The Chinese Network on Design for Sustainability (the Leapfrog Project) funded by the

3. The Chinese Network on Design for Sustainability (the Leapfrog Project) funded by the HK Polytechnic University

the present.

the present.

from the industrial society to the mature industrial society and to the network society

from the industrial society to the mature industrial society and to the network society (… two steps in two decades !)

industrial society.

industrial society.

“think product!” (…. and services will follow)

“think product!” (…. and services will follow)

mature industrial society.

mature industrial society.

“think service!” (…. and products will follow)

“think service!” (…. and products will follow)

Service: a performance that some people do for the utility, satisfaction and the support

Service: a performance that some people do for the utility, satisfaction and the support of other people’s activities (…there are marketable and nonmarketable performances)

Out- sourcing: to buy on the market a service that, before, has been delivered

Out- sourcing: to buy on the market a service that, before, has been delivered in a non-market form of economy (…the marketisation of private spaces and times)

network society.

network society.

“think nets!” (…. and products, services and systems will follow)

“think nets!” (…. and products, services and systems will follow)

… for the network society, see: M. Castells, The rise of the network society

… for the network society, see: M. Castells, The rise of the network society

network society = a service economy + a high degree of connectivity

network society = a service economy + a high degree of connectivity

connectivity.

connectivity.

Connectivity: the quantity and quality of manageable interactions

Connectivity: the quantity and quality of manageable interactions

connectivity as heat: the “melting” of the traditional forms of organisation.

connectivity as heat: the “melting” of the traditional forms of organisation.

in a quasi-fluid world ….

in a quasi-fluid world ….

1. from “value chains” to “value constellations”

1. from “value chains” to “value constellations”

traditionally ideas follows organisations today organisations follows ideas

traditionally ideas follows organisations today organisations follows ideas

2. from “products” to “events”

2. from “products” to “events”

traditionally products are “things” today products are “events” and companies are “dynamic system organisers”

traditionally products are “things” today products are “events” and companies are “dynamic system organisers”

services and connectivity transparency and permeability (… from services as interfaces to whole companies

services and connectivity transparency and permeability (… from services as interfaces to whole companies as services)

systems and connectivity flexibility and reconfigurability (… from system analysis to system design)

systems and connectivity flexibility and reconfigurability (… from system analysis to system design)

designers’ role in the network society ?

designers’ role in the network society ?

… solution promoters and scenario builders

… solution promoters and scenario builders

system innovation in the network society. . .

system innovation in the network society. . .

the system innovation as the result of a strategic conversation …

the system innovation as the result of a strategic conversation …

… the strategic conversation as the tool to enable different actors to converge on

… the strategic conversation as the tool to enable different actors to converge on the same shared vision

scenarios (in the network society). . .

scenarios (in the network society). . .

… to generate shared visions … to facilitate solution oriented partnerships

… to generate shared visions … to facilitate solution oriented partnerships

sustainable scenarios ?

sustainable scenarios ?

… evolving visions of wellbeing

… evolving visions of wellbeing

context-based wellbeing

context-based wellbeing

wellbeing = services + common goods + ecology of times

wellbeing = services + common goods + ecology of times

criteria for sustainability 1. low energy-material intensity: it is related to the consumption of

criteria for sustainability 1. low energy-material intensity: it is related to the consumption of environmental resources for ‘unit of service’; it is mainly a technical issue

criteria for sustainability 2. high regenerative potentiality: it is related to the capability to

criteria for sustainability 2. high regenerative potentiality: it is related to the capability to improve the quality of the contexts; it is a technical and socio-cultural issue

how to imagine metascenarios based on regenerative solutions?

how to imagine metascenarios based on regenerative solutions?

new attitudes towards: 1. care and user empowerment enabling vs. relieving 2. social relationships

new attitudes towards: 1. care and user empowerment enabling vs. relieving 2. social relationships and community empowerment collective vs. individual

meta-scenarios outlines Individual No-care Relieving-individual solutions D. I. Y. + Enabling-individual solutions Relieving Enabling

meta-scenarios outlines Individual No-care Relieving-individual solutions D. I. Y. + Enabling-individual solutions Relieving Enabling Thank you! i Relieving-collective solutions Me&You Enabling-collective solutionsi Collective

solutions outlines Individual ( D. I. Y. +) (No-care) Inertial scenario NO sustainable solutions

solutions outlines Individual ( D. I. Y. +) (No-care) Inertial scenario NO sustainable solutions Sustainable solutions as (individual) enabling tools Relieving Enabling Sustainable solutions as i eco-efficient full-services Sustainable solutions as (socialised) enabling platform i (Thank you!) (Me&You) Collective