Design Thinking in Transit Estimating a Transit Travel

Design Thinking in Transit: Estimating a Transit Travel Market with GTFS and Mobile Device Data Title Information Alex Rixey, Speaker Fehr & Peers DC @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Tweet about this presentation #Transit. GIS

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc “We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. ” – Albert Einstein 2

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc We need to stop only asking: “What happens if we do this? ” …and start asking: “What can we make happen? ” 3

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Goals Today. Identify Propose Recommend 1 2 3 Identify an issue in transit planning practice Describe a general approach to addressing the issue Recommend ways to use new data sources to set and measure goals 4

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Traditional Analysis. 5

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Traditional Analysis. 6

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Design Thinking in Transit. Not: “What happens if we do this? ” But: “What are we trying to achieve? ” 7

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Questions to answer. 1 What is the goal of the transit service? 2 What policy decisions support the goal? 3 Is the transit market large enough? 4 If so, HOW do we tap that ridership potential? 8

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Questions to answer. 1 What is the goal of the transit service? How productive does the lane need to be? (persons/hr) 9

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Policy decisions. 1 2 What is the goal of the transit service? How productive does the lane need to be? (persons/hr) What policy decisions support the goal? • Auto versus Transit travel times • Protecting vehicle Level of Service (LOS) • Multimodal LOS 10

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Questions to answer. 1 What is the goal of the transit service? 2 What policy decisions support the goal? 3 Is the transit market large enough? 4 If so, HOW do we tap that ridership potential? 11

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Richmond Highway BRT. 1930 12

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Richmond Highway BRT. 2014 13

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc What is the potential travel market? 14

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc What is the potential travel market? • Identify origin zones • One for each proposed station • Align with regional model TAZs • Identify 45 -minute transit shed • Street. Light O-D analysis 15

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc What is the potential travel market? • Identify origin zones • Identify 45 -minute transit shed • GTFS data • Schedule-aware • For each proposed station • Street. Light O-D analysis 16

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Street. Light O-D analysis. 17

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Street. Light O-D analysis output. 18

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc What is the potential travel market? • Nearly 260, 000 daily trips originating in these zones • 100, 000+ daily trips from these origins to transit-accessible destinations • 40% of all trips are to transit-accessible destinations • Does not capture park-and-ride from beyond origin zones 19

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Questions to answer. 1 What is the goal of the transit service? 2 What policy decisions support the goal? 3 Is the transit market large enough? 4 If so, HOW do we tap that ridership potential? 20

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Designing transit. 4 HOW do we tap that ridership potential? Define travel time targets; allocate travel time to: • Running time • Dwell time • Traffic delay • Signal delay Are time allocations feasible given vehicle technologies, road profile, traffic volumes, etc? 21

, in. Transit Design Thinking Georgia Ave Bus Reliability. 22

, in. Transit Design Thinking Transit Reliability Analysis. 23

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Summary Approach. • If you can design service that meets travel time target; and if… • Travel time target generates enough ridership; and if… • Ridership improves person throughput; and if… • Private vehicle travel declines enough; and if… • Traffic conditions post-build hit LOS targets; • THEN you have a feasible, implementable “inside the roadway” service. 24

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Differences from Current Practice. Designing transit to hit goals vs. “Forecast and hope” Measuring versus modeling Present day versus horizon year 25

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Concluding Thoughts. Testable hypotheses address transit skeptics Testing “inside the roadway” solutions sets aside road widening debate until necessary Public is more comfortable with measured travel than with modeled travel – more believable Market data contextualizes ridership forecasts 26

, in. Transit Design Thinking #transit. GIS | @alexrixey | @fehrandpeersdc Concluding Thoughts (cont. ). Focuses attention on designing transit to be competitive with auto (as opposed to black box forecasts) A complement to, not substitute for, current approaches Approach can be done in Purpose in Need (to generate sharper, more quantitative project objectives) 27

Thank you for your time. For more information, please contact: Alex Rixey Fehr & Peers DC a. rixey@fehrandpeersdc. com @Fehr. And. Peers. D C 28