DENIS ILYIN Senior VicePresident for Strategy Commercial Moscow
- Slides: 15
DENIS ILYIN, Senior Vice-President for Strategy & Commercial Moscow, Russia 18. 06. 08 Development of Cargo Aircraft Market in Russia next
1 Average annual growth 2005 -2025 World Air Freight Market Will Grow 6. 2% Year Through 2025 RTKs, billions 800 History Forecast High Base Low 7. 1% 6. 2% 5. 4% 600 400 5. 3% growth per year 200 1995 2000 2005 Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes, World Air Cargo Forecast previous 2010 2015 2020 2025 next
2 Average World Air Cargo Freight growth, 6. 2% Domestic China Intra-Asia-North America Europe-Asia Latin America-North America Latin America-Europe-North America Europe-Africa Intra-Europe-Middle East North America Russia Average Growth in % 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes, World Air Cargo Forecast previous next
3 Air Cargo Market for non ramp aircraft Scheduled Services 1879 Aircraft ~98, 5%$78, 8 billion Air Cargo Market for ramp aircraft Total volume in 2007 г ~ $80 billion 190 billion tons / kilometer 41 mln tons DC-10, MD-11 Charter Services 479 AC ~1, 4% $1 billion Ил-76 A-300 -330 Ан-12 Ил-96 Ту-204 Ан-124 -100 B-747 C-130 311 AC В 747 F $30 billion per year (2007) ~ 38% market share 28 AC An-124 -100 $771 mln per year (2007) ~ 70% market share Market Growth Forecast (2020): - On Non ramp Aircraft – 6%-6, 2% (according to Boeing, Airbus, IATA) - On Ramp Aircraft – 8%-10% (according to Volga-Dnepr Group’s forecast) previous next
4 Scheduled cargo operations market (2007) Ramp aircraft operations market 2007 $80 billion $1 billion Asian and Pacific Region countries 1, 4 % Russian civil aviation 1, 4 % European countries 24% Russian civil aviation 74 % other countries 7, 6 % USA 31% Ukraine and other countries 26% By 2020 Russian transport aviation development strategy specifies: 1. Increase in dominant position of ramp aircraft cargo operations (from 74% up to 90%). Already now Russian cargo air carriers play the role of international military-cargo airlines. With all that US, European and UNO show the growing need in the services of Russian ramp aircraft air carriers. 2. Expansion on the market of general cargo transportation and share growth on this market (from 1% up to 10%). previous next
5 2020 2008 Charter Services ≥ 100 tons; 16; 11% An-124 ≤ 10 tons; 91; 63% Il-76 An-124 30 -100 tons; 15; 10% Il-76 10 -30 Tons; 28; 16% Total Number of Aircraft in use 171 Ramp Cargo Fleet Forecast (136 aircraft) 212 Total Number of Aircraft required 207 ≥ 100 tons; 12; 16% ≤ 10 tons; 3; 14% ≥ 100 tons; 20; 27% В 747 F B 747 10 -30 Tons; 5; 24% 30 -100 tons; 41; 31% Medium 10 -30 Tons; 12; 9% Current Ramp Cargo Fleet (150 aircraft) Scheduled Services ≥ 100 tons; 55; 39% ≤ 10 tons; 28; 21% В 747 F B 747 30 -100 tons; 19; 26% ≤ 10 tons; 8; 11% 10 -30 Tons; 24; 36% 30 -100 tons; 1; 16% Current Non Ramp Cargo Fleet (21 aircraft) Non Ramp Cargo Fleet Forecast (92 aircraft) Source: Volga-Dnepr Group Forecast previous next
6 Other Countries 98, 7% Other Countries 98, 6% 2004 2007 Russia 1, 4% Total volume $55 billion Russia 1, 3% Total volume $80 billion Other Countries 92, 0% 2015 Total volume $105 billion previous Russia 8, 0% Other Countries 84, 0% Market volume $160 billion 2030 Russia 16, 0% next
7 DC-10, MD-11 USA Canada Moscow Europe USA Khabarovsk Krasnoyarsk Canada St. Petersburg Europe Moscow China Singapore Moscow – natural geographical hub connecting Europe to Middle East, Indian Subcontinent and South-East Asia previous Khabarovsk Krasnoyarsk China Middle East, Africa India B-747, 777 India Singapore Krasnoyarsk – natural geographical hub connecting USA, Europe & Canada to China, Japan and South-East Asia next
8 HOU ORD NYC AMS FRA MIL YYC Moscow LHR UUS NGO LED MOW KJA NRT SHA TLV Krasnoyarsk LAX NBO BJS HKG KUL DEL B 747 -8 F SIN previous next
9 Total Aircraft Type Delivery/Retirement Schedule Current Status 2 2 x Boeing 747 -200 (VP-BIA, BIB) April 2004, July 2005 Retired in 2007 -2008 3 1 x Boeing 747 -300 SF (VP-BIC) October 2005 In Service 4 1 x Boeing 747 -200 F (VP-BID) June 2006 (NCA) In Service 6 2 x Boeing 747 -200 F (VP-BII, BIJ) March 2007 (NCA) In Service 5 2 x Boeing 747 -200 F (VP-BIA) September 2007 Retired in 2007 6 Boeing 747 - 400 ERF (VP-BIG) October 2007 (Boeing) In Service 8 Boeing 747 -400 ERF February & April 2008 (Boeing) In Service 7 Boeing 747 -200 (VP-BIB) March 2008 Retired in 2008 Boeing 747 -8 2010 -2013 (Boeing) On Order 8 -12 previous next
10 Boeing 747 -8 F Boeing 747 – 8 F Boeing 747 -400 ERF 2 x Boeing 747 -200 +1 2008 +3 Boeing 747 -200 2007 Boeing 747 -200 2 +1 2020 2010 -13 +2 1 x Boeing 747 -400 ERF +5 +5 -1 2006 -1 2005 2004 previous next
11 Cities with population more than 1 mln people Regions of significant economic growth S. Petersburg Moscow Rostov on Don Nizhny Novgorod Kazan Ufa Samara Chelyabinsk Yekaterinburg Omsk Novosibirsk Krasnoyarsk Source: Ministry of Economic of RF Federal State Statistics Service previous next
12 Ту-204 Air. Bridge. Cargo Hubs ABC Schedule Service Air Feeder Service B-737, 757, 767 Road Feeder Service A 320 F, A 330 F ST. PETERSBURG (LED) MOSCOW (SVO) Oil & Gas Exploration fields YUZHNOSAKHALINSK (UUS) KRASNOYARSK (KJA) KHABAROVSK (KHV) previous next nex
13 While Boeing 747 freighters offer capacity on long haul international routes, regional aircraft will complement transcontinental services with local distribution capabilities. Tupolev 204 C has been selected as the middle range aircraft type to serve Russian domestic markets from ABC hubs in Moscow and Krasnoyarsk. In June 2007, two planes of this type have been ordered with AVIASTAR-SP (Ulyanovsk, Russia), and 3 more are in plans until 2010 Aircraft Type Delivery Schedule Status 1 -2 Tupolev-204 C 2009 Quarter 1 In production 3 -5 Tupolev-204 C Until 2010 On Option previous next
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