Demographic Transition Model S S The demographic transition

Demographic Transition Model S

S The demographic transition model shows population change over time. S It studies how birth rate and death rate affect the total population of a country.

The five stages of the demographic transition model S 1. Total population is low but it is balanced due to high birth rates and high death rates. S 2. Total population rises as death rates fall due to improvements in health care and sanitation. Birth rates remain high. S 3. Total population is still rising rapidly. The gap between birth and death rates narrows due to the availability of contraception and fewer children being needed to work - due to the mechanisation of farming. The natural increase is high.

S 4. Total population is high, but it is balanced by a low birth rate and a low death rate. Birth control is widely available and there is a desire for smaller families. S 5. Total population is high but going into decline due to an ageing population. There is a continued desire for smaller families, with people opting to have children later in life.

S As a country passes through the demographic transition model, the total population rises. S Most LEDCs are at stage 2 or 3 (with a growing population and a high natural increase). S Most MEDCs are now at stage 4 of the model and some such as Germany have entered stage 5.

S As populations move through the stages of the model, the gap between birth rate and death rate first widens, then narrows. S In stage 1 the two rates are balanced. S In stage 2 they diverge, as the death rate falls relative to the birth rate. S In stage 3 they converge again, as the birth rate falls relative to the death rate. S Finally in stage 4 the death and birth rates are balanced again but at a much lower level.

Limitations of the model S 1. The model was developed after studying the experiences of countries in Western Europe and North America. Conditions might be different for LEDCs in different parts of the world. S 2. The original model doesn't take into account the fact that some countries now have a declining population and a 5 th stage. Most texts will now show this stage as it is relevant to an increasing number of MEDCs in the 21 st century.

Stage 1 - High Stationary S Birth Rate and Death rate are both high. S Population growth is slow and fluctuating.

Reasons Birth Rate is high as a result of: S Lack of family planning S High Infant Mortality Rate S Need for workers in agriculture S Religious beliefs .

Death Rate is high because of: S High levels of disease S Famine S Lack of clean water and sanitation S Lack of health care S War S Competition for food from predators such as rats

Stage 2 - Early Expanding SBirth Rate remains high. Death Rate is falling. SPopulation begins to rise steadily.

Reasons S Death Rate is falling as a result of: S Improved health care (e. g. Smallpox Vaccine) S Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled) S Improved sanitation S Improved food production and storage S Improved transport for food S Decreased Infant Mortality Rates S Typical of Britain in 19 th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria

Stage 3 - Late Expanding SBirth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall. SPopulation rising.

S Reasons: S Family planning available S Lower Infant Mortality Rate S Increased mechanization reduces need for workers S Increased standard of living S Changing status of women S Typical of Britain in late 19 th and early 20 th century; China; Brazil

Stage 4 - Low Stationary SBirth Rate and Death Rate both low. Population steady. STypical of USA; Sweden; Japan; Britain

Stage 5 - Declining Population S Birth Rate remains low. S Death rate begins to rise slightly, resulting in a declining population S Death rate rises slightly due to lifestyle choices such as a poor diet and smoking S Examples: Germany, Scotland