Demographic transition It has recently been suggested that
Demographic transition
It has recently been suggested that school age children today will be the first generation of modern Americans expected to have lower life expectancy than their parents The reason for this is increased childhood obesity and related diseases (diabetes, hypertension, etc…) More on related food and nutrition issues later
World regions in the process of demographic transition birth rate death rate
Why is rapid population growth a problem? Basic population biology: More organisms mean fewer resources for each Dense population allows for higher disease and parasite transfer Remember population crash from Chapter 4 ****** You may disagree with the application of some material in this lecture to human population because of personal values
Why is population growing rapidly in some places? (mostly developing countries) Is it a problem? What should be done?
Factors Influencing Family Size • Old-age security – agrarian: young support old – industrial: retirement plans; impersonal • Child Mortality — Health Care – healthy kids = fewer kids – High infant mortality = More kids!
Factors Influencing Family Size • Status of Women – education: provides alternative means of support – One of the best predictors of a population’s fertility rate is the educational levels of women in that population!
What factors influence people to have more or fewer children? Weak correlation Factors that affect fertility more directly may include • health care • education for women, and • availability of contraception
Fertility and Education
Factors Influencing Family Size • Family Planning – Availability of contraceptives – pre- & postnatal care for mother and child – spacing births: breastfeeding ****** Many personal value judgments Religious views on contraception and abortion
According to World Health Organization (WHO) 210 million women become pregnant per year 46 million (~22%) have an abortion (see pg 169 in text) Many deaths result due to unsafe operations Abortion more common where birth control hard to obtain Abortion rate in US going down, traced to availability of emergency contraception e. g. plan B – not considered inducer of early abortion, but prevents implantation of egg in uterine wall RU-486 is abortion inducing pill and highly politically controversial
2002 US cut off funding to UNFPA because of China’s one child policy 2001 G. W. Bush reinstated policy know as “Global Gag Rule” which prohibits any US government aid to be given to any FP agency that provides legal abortions or advocates for abortion law reform in that country Bush administration also withdrew support for other international FP programs because these programs claim to provide “reproductive services” or “reproductive health care” which the Bush administration deems code for abortion
Much stronger correlation (cause and effect? )
China’s one child policy China = 1/5 of world population, 1. 3 billion Years ago, goal of one child per family set Incentives: paid for sterilization and abortions, one-child subsidy, job priority for only children, preferential medical care for only children- especially girls Penalties: aid received for first child must be returned when second born, taxation, no paid maternity leave for second child Fertility rate now ~1. 7, but population still growing because of large # people in reproductive years
Is the one child policy ethical? Is this “mutual coercion mutually agreed upon”? What are the alternatives, when the population is too great for available resources?
Factors Influencing Family Size • Economics – agricultural: children work (asset) – industrial society: cost money to educate • Education. . . is expensive – Agricultural society: not expected for “country kids” – industrial society: education mandated
Poverty, environmental degradation and high fertility rates are linked!
Development Agencies International World Bank United Nations (WHO, FAO, UNICEF) US U. S. Agency for International Development Peace Corps
The World Bank: Successes • Social progress in some countries • Declining fertility rates in some countries
World Bank: Successes • Access to contraceptives and education have improved so much so that some developing nations’ populations (Brazil & India) went down – Women have power & choice to meet the needs of their families – average births down from 6 to 3 / family
World Bank: Failures • No increased GNP • Increased absolute poverty • Large cattle operations (usually in nutrient poor areas) • Cash crops • Large-scale projects: hydroelectric dams
Aswan Dam landsat image • World's largest dam • 2. 1 M kw electricity • Industry: fertilizer and steel plants • Crop irrigation • Negatives: siltation, saltification, loss of flood fertilization, parasites, archeological sites, displaced thousands
Low-tech development: Peace Corps (www. peacecorp. gov) Environmental Education and Awareness Forestry Parks and Wildlife Environmental and Water Resources Engineering
Example: improved wood-stove technology Requires less fire wood Reduces deforestation Reduces women’s workload Some reduces indoor smoke Reduce burns to children Simple construction (various styles) Can be made by women with only a little training Adopted by many development agencies
Many ethical and social issues, and very personal value judgments Why are developing countries poor? “Chicken and Egg” lower population vs. improved economics Is there really a limit to the number of people the world can support? Why aren’t resources distributed fairly?
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