DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE WARREN TOWNSHIP SCHOOLS May

DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE WARREN TOWNSHIP SCHOOLS May 11, 2015

STATISTICAL FORECASTING Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area. Performed demographic studies for approximately 100 school districts in NY & NJ. Demographic consultant for the NYC Public Schools since 2006.

RICHARD S. GRIP ED. D. Executive Director Doctorate from Rutgers University Graduate School of Education in Educational Statistics and Measurement Numerous publications on school demography and presentations nationally Testified as an expert witness in school demography in several Administrative Law court hearings.

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY q Project grade-by-grade enrollments from 2015 -16 through 2019 -20 q Analyze district historical enrollments, birth and fertility rates, community population trends, and age structure q Impact of new developments on enrollment

WARREN TOWNSHIP HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED POPULATIONS 1940 -2040

WARREN TOWNSHIP DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE q 80. 9% White (86. 3% White in 2000), 15. 1% Asian, 5. 4% Hispanic q 27. 8% of population is under 18 q Median age = 43. 8 years (NJ=39. 0) q 19% of population is foreign-born (NJ=21%). India is largest source, representing 26% of foreign-born population. China was largest source in 2000. q Bachelor’s Degree or Higher = 62. 8% q Median family income = $167, 750 q 5, 258 housing units, of which 95% are 1 -unit homes (attached or detached) q Nearly 9% of housing units are renter-occupied. q Median value of owner-occupied unit = $669 K

SCHOOL LOCATIONS

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT TRENDS District’s October 2014 enrollment was 1, 839. q Enrollment has declined for 5 consecutive years. q Loss of 432 students (-19. 0%) since 2005 -06. q Cohort-Survival Ratio Method (CSR) was used to project enrollments five years into the future. q

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS 2005 -06 TO 2014 -15

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS BY LEVEL

ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHOD COHORT SURVIVAL RATIO q Ratios are calculated for each grade progression. (Ex. 100 1 st graders in 2013 -14 become 95 2 nd graders in 2014 -15 = 0. 95) q Survival ratios were computed for ten historical years. Eight of 9 average ratios were above 1. 000. q Averages were then computed and used to project future enrollments.

KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT q Negative kindergarten replacement (KR) has occurred for past 9 years, ranging from 26 -129 students per year. q Average loss of 113 students in last 4 years. q Negative KR- Number of graduating 8 th grade students is greater than the number of kindergarten students replacing them in the next year. q Negative KR was 114 students in 2014 -15, as 258 8 th graders graduated in 2013 -14 and were replaced by 144 kindergarten students in 201415.

HISTORICAL KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

TOTAL ENROLLMENT CHANGE VS. KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

BIRTHS Births in Warren have been declining: 191 in 2002, 83 in 2011. q Births are used to project kindergarten students 5 years later. q Fertility rates are similar to those in Somerset County and New Jersey. q

BIRTH RATES AND BIRTH-TOKINDERGARTEN SURVIVAL RATIOS Birth Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Kindergarten Warren Twp. Birth-to-Kindergarten Students Five Years Number of Births Survival Ratio Later 162 226 1. 3951 173 214 1. 2370 191 199 1. 0419 170 202 1. 1882 148 204 1. 3784 157 201 1. 2803 113 161 1. 4248 141 155 1. 0993 100 144 1. 4400 85 N/A 83 N/A

HISTORICAL BIRTHS IN WARREN TOWNSHIP 2000 -2011

AGE PYRAMID WARREN TOWNSHIP 2000

AGE PYRAMID WARREN TOWNSHIP 2010

AGE PYRAMID NEW JERSEY 2010

NEW HOUSING IN WARREN TOWNSHIP 75 new housing units (35 condos, 40 SF) Largest is redevelopment of former textile mill on Dubois Road with 35 “age-targeted” condos. Various stages of approval or under construction. Potential for 33 public schoolchildren

HOMES BUILT BY DECADE

BASELINE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

PROJECTED KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

PROJECTED ENROLLMENT BY GRADE CONFIGURATION Historical PK-5 6 -8 2014 -15 1, 165 674 Projected CSR 5 -YR CSR 6 -YR 2015 -16 1, 097 660 658 2016 -17 998 1, 000 681 677 2017 -18 959 963 648 644 2018 -19 913 919 617 613 2019 -20 879 886 557 555

SCHOOL PROJECTIONS School A. L. Tomaso (K-5) Central (K-5) Mount Horeb (PK-5) Woodland (K-5) Warren Middle School (6 -8) Actual Enrollment 2014 -15 Projected Enrollment 2019 -20 Difference 300 207 -93 314 277 -37 265 178 -87 286 231 -55 674 557 -117

CAPACITY ANALYSIS Actual Projected Enrollment Difference 2014 -15 2019 -20 School Capacity A. L. Tomaso (K-5) 389 300 +89 207 +182 Central (K-5) 425 314 +111 277 +148 Mount Horeb (PK-5) 522 265 +257 178 +344 Woodland (K-5) 419 286 +133 231 +188 Warren Middle School (6 -8) 858 674 +184 557 +301