Demographic Change in Minnesota Susan Brower Minnesota State
Demographic Change in Minnesota Susan Brower, Minnesota State Demographer June 28, 2018
MN ranks highly on a large number of indicators Source: Minnesota Compass
Population Growth within Minnesota
2010 -2015 Majority of the growth (88%) occurred in 7 -county metro • MN grew by 179, 000 • Hennepin and Ramsey added 98, 000 jointly Population Change, Po 2010 -2015
Minnesota’s 15 Fastest Growing Cities 2010 -2016 Source: U. S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Minneapolis St. Paul Maple Grove Rochester Woodbury Plymouth Lakeville Blaine Savage Brooklyn Park St. Louis Park Edina Shakopee Eden Prairie Moorhead 30, 517 16, 869 7, 785 7, 031 6, 554 6, 496 5, 779 5, 491 3, 796 3, 731 3, 487 3, 304 3, 235 3, 001 2, 918
Urban & Rural Areas are Scattered Across the State
Population Aging 7
This decade and next: Unprecedented increases in MN’s 65+ population Number of additional older adults, age 65+ (thousands) 85 1950 s 55 60 s 71 70 s 67 80 s 47 90 s 91 00 s - - - 10 s 20 s 30 s 40 s 2050 s
This decade and next: Unprecedented increases in MN’s 65+ population Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands) 335 285 85 1950 s 55 71 67 60 s 70 s 80 s 47 90 s 97 91 00 s Sources: U. S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center 10 s 20 s 30 s 66 56 40 s 2050 s
Population by age and sex Minnesota, 2015 90+ 85 to 89 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 Under 5 250000 Baby Boomers Gen. X Millennials 150000 Source: MN State Demographic Center Projections 50000 150000 250000
For the first time in MN history: More 65+ than school-age by 2020 1, 800, 000 1, 600, 000 1, 400, 000 1, 200, 000 1, 000 800, 000 600, 000 400, 000 200, 000 0 65+ 5 -17 2060 2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 Sources: U. S. Census Bureau, decennial census, and Minnesota State Demographic Center projections
Demographic shifts will change demand for public services General Fund Expenditures, 2016 -2017 [CATEGOR Y NAME] [VALUE] [CATEGOR Higher Ed; Y NAME] [VALUE] 7% Within Health & Human Services • Medical Assistance Expenditures for the Elderly and Disabled: 16% of GF spending • MA expenditures include basic care, long-term care waivers and long-term institutional care Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, Nov 2017. House Research, Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012
Little-to -no growth in working-age population in MN over the next 15 years Ages 18 -64 3. 34 3. 42 3. 40 2010 2020 2030 3. 55 3. 68 3. 04 2. 66 2. 42 1. 77 1. 78 1950 1960 2. 01 1970 1980 Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections 1990 2000 2040 2050
Minnesota’s labor force growth is projected to slow further over the next 10 years 60, 000 54, 000 50, 000 40, 000 34, 000 30, 000 21, 000 20, 000 7, 000 6, 000 2015 -2020 -2025 -2030 10, 000 9, 000 13, 000 15, 000 2045 -2050 2040 -2045 2035 -2040 2030 -2035 2010 -2015 2000 -2010 1990 -2000 1980 -1990 Source: U. S. Census Bureau (1980— 2015) & MN State Demographic Center Projections (2015 -2045)
Greater Minnesota will likely continue to be impacted by labor force shortages 2020 -2025 So ut hw es t as t So ut he t es w th rth No 2015 -2020 No r ea st ro et M Ce n 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 -10000 tra l Projected Change in Labor Force (Age 16+) by MN Planning Areas, 2015 -2030 2025 -2030 Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections
Minnesota’s net migration, by international & domestic components 30, 000 25, 000 20, 000 15, 000 10, 000 5, 000 0 -5, 000 -10, 000 International Net Domestic Net Source: U. S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program Total Net Migration 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 -15, 000
Midwestern states tend to lose residents to other states on net—but gain residents from abroad Net Migration for Midwestern States April 2010 -July 2017 (Cumulative) Minnesota North Dakota Iowa South Dakota Nebraska Indiana Missouri Wisconsin Kansas Ohio Michigan Illinois Net Migration Total International 71, 202 103, 720 49, 131 9, 953 24, 342 42, 037 20, 859 8, 969 17, 758 30, 047 14, 929 72, 793 -2, 166 55, 209 -17, 782 50, 956 -40, 572 42, 586 -54, 642 137, 973 -74, 546 150, 756 -423, 770 219, 051 Source: U. S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates Domestic -32, 518 39, 178 -17, 695 11, 890 -12, 289 -57, 864 -57, 375 -68, 738 -83, 158 -192, 615 -225, 302 -642, 821 7
Source: Minnesota Job Vacancies Survey, MN DEED 18
Increasing reports of labor shortages & of employers’ response
Trends in Diversity
MN in 2015 by race/ethnicity (Hispanics removed from all other race groups) White population = 4. 5 million Populations of Color = 1. 0 million MN population = 5. 5 million Source: U. S. Census Population Estimates, 2015. Note: Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islanders represent. 04% of the population, and are not shown in the pie graph.
Populations of Color are driving growth in MN (Change, 20002015) During the past 15 years, the White population grew by 2%, while the Asian, Black, Hispanic, & Multiracial populations grew by 80 -96%. Source: U. S. Census Bureau, decennial Census and Population Estimates
Populations of Color now total 1 million in MN, 19% of the population Populations of color in Minnesota 350, 000 300, 000 250, 000 Black/Af. American 200, 000 American Indian 150, 000 Asian Two or more races/Other race 100, 000 Hispanic/Latino 50, 000 2014 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960
Source: U. S. Census Bureau data. Mapped by mncompass. org 24
Racially Diverse Populations Bolstering Growth Across State, 2000 to 2010 Growth (%), Pop. of color Source: U. S. Census Bureau Growth (%), White pop.
Minnesota’s population in 2015 by age and broad race groups 85 years and over 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years Under 5 years 96% White Sources: U. S. Census Bureau, 2015 population estimates White Of Color 69% White
Real median household income grew for all race groups in Minnesota since 2010/2011 Real Median Household Income by Race (2016 dollars) Minnesota, 2006 -2016 $ 80, 000 $ 70, 900 $ 70, 000 $ 68, 700 $ 60, 000 $ 45, 900 $ 50, 000 $ 37, 000 $ 40, 000 $ 33, 400 $ 30, 000 $ 20, 000 $ 10, 000 $Am. Indian 2006 Asian 2007 2008 2009 Black 2010 2011 2012 Latino 2013 2014 2015 White non-Hispanic 2016 Differences tested between 2010 -2016 at the 90% confidence level. American Indian, Black, Latino and White non-Hispanic median household income grew over that period. Asian median household income grew between 2011 and 2016. 27
Occupations with the Most Projected New Jobs 2014 - 2024 Personal Care Aides Home Health Aides Registered Nurses Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food Retail Salespersons Cooks, Restaurant Computer Systems Analysts Nursing Assistants Customer Service Representatives Social and Human Service Assistants Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners Accountants and Auditors Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists General and Operations Managers Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners Medical Assistants Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Computer and Information Systems Managers Carpenters Source: MN DEED, Employment Outlook Projections 16, 520 9, 250 6, 720 5, 320 4, 920 2, 700 2, 470 2, 450 2, 400 2, 210 2, 060 2, 030 1, 930 1, 670 1, 590 1, 580 1, 540 1, 510 1, 450 1, 430
How will we prioritize future needs? First of all: To whom does WE refer? Second, third, fourth fifth, and so on: How will we care for the older adult population? How will we train and educate the next generation of workers; neighbors; citizens? How do we retain and attract the this generation of workers? The next? How will we be sure that our residents have jobs that allow them to cover basic living expenses?
Changes are coming, whether or not we are ready for them. Changes will bring new opportunities; allow us to put policies, programs and institutions in place that work for more of us.
Keep in touch Email: demography. helpline@state. mn. us Website: mn. gov/demography
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