Democratization in Asia Causes Processes and Consequences Outline

Democratization in Asia Causes, Processes, and Consequences

Outline • 3 rd wave of democratization • Causes – economic – cultural • Processes • Consequences – economy – security

Waves of Democratization • ``A group of transitions from nondemocratic to democratic regimes that occur within a specified period of time and that significantly outnumber transitions in the opposite direction during that period”

The First Two Waves • A long and slow wave from 1828 to 1926 • A reverse wave of democratic breakdown from 1922 to 1942 • A wave of democratization after World War II from 1943 to 1964 • A reverse wave of democratic breakdown from 1961 to 1975

The Third Wave • Started in Portugal and Spain in mid 1970 s • Spread to South America from late 1970 s to early 1980 s • Reached Asia in late 1980 s • Surge of transitions in East Europe at end of 1980 s • South Africa 1990

The Third Wave

Causes of Regime Change

Economic Explanation? • Almost all rich countries have democratic institutions

Economic Variable • • • Economic development dispersion of resources economic pluralism social pluralism political pluralism

Economic Variable • • • Economic development middle class demand for democracy elite bargaining political accommodation

Economic Variable • • • Economic development rising expectations economic difficulties popular discontent regime crises

Cultural Explanation? • Are Islam and the ``Asian values” obstacles to democracy?

Support for Democracy • World Values Surveys and European Values Surveys • The following slide shows the percentage of respondents who said a democratic system is a ``very good” or ``fairly good” way of governing this country • Most Islamic and Pacific Asian countries actually rank relatively high

Support for Strong Leader • The following slide shows the percentage of respondents who said ``having a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament and elections” would be ``very good” or ``fairly good” • Most Islamic and Pacific Asian countries actually have relatively low support for this authoritarian option

Scenarios of Change • Preservation of authoritarian regime • Gradual transition to – authoritarian pluralism • Gradual and moderate liberalization • Gradual and moderate democratization • Radical transition toward – a new authoritarian regime – a democracy

Regime Changes Non-democracy Preservation State Crises Democracy Regime Change Democracy Non-democracy

Top-down Processes • From top down – Conflict of interest – Elite competition – Gradual transition • Problematic implications: – democratization is easy – skillful elite can establish democracy in any setting

Bottom-up Processes • From bottom up – Popular demand – Political movement – Radical revolution

Consequences • Does democracy promote economic growth? • Does democracy promote security?