Democratization and Religion Illiberal Democracies in the Middle

Democratization and Religion: Illiberal Democracies in the Middle East and North Africa Research Question: Under what conditions will illiberal democracies form? Argument: Cultural influences play a role in determining the liberalness or illiberalness of emergent democracies

Literature Review - The Rise of Illiberal Democracy Fareed Zakaria: - Establishes the concept of illiberal democracies Importance of liberal-constitutional aspects of democracy Temptations of Power: Islamists and Illiberal Democracy in a New Middle East Shadi Hamid: - Conservative Culture of MENA results in votes for Islamist parties - Political parties and populations support democracy and desire illiberal policies - The Transformation of the Arab World Olivier Roy Arab Spring/Democracy has decoupled Religion and State, secularized politics (post-Islamism) - ‘Conservative’ replaces ‘Islamic’ in policy

Method • Define illiberal democracy • Demonstrate that democracy is widely supported by MENA populations and political parties • Show the population’s view on religion and government in both policy applications and governance preferences • Demonstrate that voters will/have approve(d) parties and policies advocating illiberal positions • Examine Islamist parties operated in Egypt, Tunisia and Jordan • Posit that when/if democratization occurs in the region, similar patterns will result due to similar popular opinion and voter desire

Evidence • Polling Data (Pew, Gallup, Arab Barometer) of MENA shows regional support for role of religion in government and support for policies advocated by religious political parties • Pro – Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt • Brotherhood won election • Popular opinion and election supported religiously conservative policies • Brotherhood implemented illiberal policies but unable to maintain legitimacy • Brotherhood loses control to SCAF • Counter – Ennahda’s governance in Tunisia: • Democracy resulted in emergence of overt religiosity; Ennahda won election • However, Tunisia has lower support for conservative policies than most in MENA • Ennahda adapted and implemented what it could • Lost election last month to secular party

Tentative Conclusion Due to the dominance of conservative and religious values in MENA, emergent democracies will tend toward illiberal governing styles reflecting the will of the majority