Democratization and Reform Fostering Democratic Political Change In

Democratization and Reform Fostering Democratic Political Change In the Middle East Gregory Mahler Earlham College Richmond, Indiana U. S. A. December 9 -11, 2007

Constitutionalism and Middle East Political Traditions • Democratic Government and Traditional Culture • Can Democratic Government Thrive in the Middle East? • Where Colonial Powers Established Democratic Government, Has It Survived? • The Effect of Nationalism on Democratic Government

Middle Eastern Constitutions • While some states have not pushed for democracy (e. g. Libya, Kuwait, Saudia Arabia), others have made efforts in that direction (Palestine, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan) • Political structures among “friendly” nations vary • Human Rights and Society • Established Religion and Society

The Future of Constitutionalism in the Middle East • Wave of Democracy “skirted around the Middle East” • Role of Islamic Fundamentalism in resistance to democratic government

Palestinian Political Culture • Words such as damaqrata, democratization, dimuqratiyya, democracy, atta’addudiyya, pluralism, and shar’iyya, legitimacy, are all themes and concepts pervasive in the present political discourse in the Arab world. • Is “Palestine” different from “the Arab World” in terms of political culture and openness to democracy? • Khalil Shikaki has suggested that the peace process had an effect -- not always a positive one -- upon democratization in Palestine

Public Opinion Questions • What are the views of the Palestinian population about the political future? How many Palestinians would feel “uncertain and fearful” about the future for a variety of reasons? • How many would be either “very optimistic” or “optimistic”? • What is the role of economic issues in this? • What would we find if we asked directly if they believe in democracy? • How would most Palestinians define “democracy”? • Would there be a conflict between religious values (i. e. Islam) and democracy?

More Public Opinion Data • Palestinians overwhelmingly support a democratic political system and show readiness to participate in the political process. • Do Palestinians think that their government should have the right to intervene in what are generally regarded as individual civil rights?

Islam and Democratic Values • Hanf/Sabella survey (1996): Ninety percent of the Palestinians believed that Islam “is the only true religion”. • Only 28 percent indicated that they believed that they could “be happy and enjoy life” without being religious. • While 84 percent of the respondents indicated that the first adjective they would use to describe themselves would be “Muslim, ” only 8 percent indicated that the first adjective they would use to describe themselves would be “Palestinian. ” • Of those saying “Muslim” first, 85 percent said “Palestinian” second, and 57 percent said “Arab” third. Of those saying “Palestinian” first, 51 percent said “Muslim” second, and 29 percent said “Arab” third.

Democracy and Palestinian Elections • How committed is the Palestinian population to following the results of a democratic election? • If the kind of conflict that occurred in Florida in 2000 happened, what would be the outcome? • Why did the last Palestinian election end up the way it did? • If there had not been outside interference, what would have happened?

The Development of a Palestinian Constitution • Ten years later, how entrenched is constitutionalism in Palestine? • What can be done to ensure that political change in the Middle East (and Palestine) will be democratic political change?

Democratization and Reform Fostering Democratic Political Change In the Middle East Gregory Mahler Earlham College Richmond, Indiana U. S. A. December 9 -11, 2007