Demand Analysis Working Group 2021 Transportation Energy Demand

Demand Analysis Working Group 2021 Transportation Energy Demand Forecast: Vehicle Attributes May 5, 2021

Purpose of DAWG Meetings • Start discussion on forecast • Inform stakeholders of model assumptions and changes • Solicit input/feedback from stakeholders • Better understand stakeholders’ needs and preferences • Connect analysts and contractors with stakeholders

Meeting Agenda Topic Time Facilitator Mark Palmere, Energy Commission Jesse Gage, Energy Commission Elizabeth Pham, Energy Commission Catherine Ledna and Aaron Brooker, NREL Welcome and Introductions 1: 00 to 1: 15 Update on LDV Population and Reclassification 1: 15 to 1: 25 LDV Battery Prices 1: 25 to 1: 35 LDV Attributes 1: 35 to 2: 15 Break 2: 15 to 2: 30 Update on MD-HD Population and Reclassification 2: 30 to 2: 40 MD-HD Attributes 2: 40 to 3: 30 Jeff Rosenfeld, ICF Wrap-up Discussion & Comments 3: 30 to 4: 30 All Participants -Bob Mc. Bride, Energy Commission

IEPR Timeline • Today: Transportation DAWG meeting on model assumptions and changes • Early June: DAWG meeting continuing MD-HD attribute discussion • August 5: Inputs and Assumptions IEPR workshop • September: DAWG meeting on load shapes • September: Complete statewide forecast results • October: Complete regional forecast results, load shapes model, and exploratory scenario(s) • November: Transportation DAWG meeting on forecast results • December 2: IEPR Commissioner workshop on forecast results

Overview of Plans for Year • Update inputs and assumptions to forecast. • Develop statewide transportation energy demand forecast, as part of overall 2021 Integrated Energy Policy Report. • Create utility-level EV data, including population and energy use. • Develop exploratory scenario(s), including one incorporating 2035 ban on ICE vehicle sales.

Model Changes • Vehicle classifications have been updated for both LDV and MD-HD • Consumer preferences have been updated to reflect latest (2019) California Vehicle Survey • Income is considered when assessing state EV rebate availability • MD-HD infrastructure cost is being considered in an experimental scenario • All models and cases have been extended out to 2035

Potential Exploratory Scenarios • The following exploratory scenarios, based on policy and/or behavior changes, are being considered for use: ØScenario incorporating proposed 2035 statewide ban on ICE LDV sales ØScenario incorporating CARB’s Mobile Source Strategy and looking at its impact on the grid ØScenario incorporating increased telework, updated with newest data • Additional discussion of exploratory scenarios may be subject of future DAWG meeting, depending on interest (see next slide)

Future DAWG Topics • Load shape updates • Aviation • Offroad • Exploratory scenarios • LDV Sales Mandate • Mobile Source Strategy • Teleworking • Other?