Delphi AED 615 Q Molina Objectives Become familiar

Delphi AED 615 Q. Molina

Objectives • Become familiar with the social science research method known as Delphi.

Prerequisite Tools • There are no Prerequisite tools required for the Delphi Research Method

Purpose • Delphi is a group process for eliciting, collating, and generally directing informed (expert) judgment towards a consensus on a particular topic.

Uses • Establishing goals and priorities • Identifying the dimensions and the attributes of a problem • Providing forecasts • Clarifying positions and delineating differences between group members • Gathering information from a group whose members do not meet fact-to-face and wish to retain their anonymity

Description • Delphi is a method in which individuals focus on and debate issues anonymously. • Typically conducted by mail or e-mail utilizing several rounds of questionnaires. • Results of each round are collected, collated analyzed by a design team. • Questions for the next round are based on the analysis process. • Generally provides convergence of opinions, but may provide the basis for disagreement.

Advantages within Delphi • Anonymity • More accurate representation of an individual’s feelings • No group meetings are required. • A large heterogeneous group may participate on an equal basis. • Allows participants to be geographically scattered.

Limitations within Delphi • Time may eliminate Delphi as a possibility. • Is not useful for individuals who have difficulties reading or writing. • High participant interest and commitment is assumed or the quantity and quality of responses will decrease with each round. • By design Delphi does not allow for instant communication or intellectual stimulation.

Required Resources • Level of Effort – design team requirements • Skill Level – questionnaire written free of bias. • Time Required – six weeks to complete 4 rounds.

Inputs • Respondents should: – Have special experience or knowledge to share. – Represent a cross-section of opinions. – Be motivated to participate. • Questionnaire should: – Be as short as possible – Be adapted to the language most familiar to the participants area of expertise – Elicit useful responses at the level of abstraction required

Tool Output • Is generally a convergence of opinion. • Frequency distribution • Ranking of responses to a particular question.

Schedule for Delphi Delbecq, et al. (1975)

The Recipe • • • • Develop the basis for a Delphi Design Questionnaire #1 Solicit responses for questionnaire #1 Analyze questionnaire #1 Design questionnaire #2 Solicit responses for questionnaire #2 Analyze questionnaire #2 Design questionnaire #3 Solicit responses for questionnaire #3 Analyze questionnaire #3 Design questionnaire #4 Solicit responses for questionnaire #4 Analyze questionnaire #4 Closure

Design Team Size • Large = 12 or more people. • Medium = 2 – 12 people. • Individual

Audience Size • Large = 30 or more people. • Medium = 10 to 30 people. • Small = Under 10 people.

Theory • Arguments have been made to support the claim that the Delphi method is superior to conventional uses of groups in problem solving or forecasting. (Gordon and Helmer 1964)

Journal Article • Journal of Agricultural Education Article Utilizing the Delphi Method

Bibliography Dalkey, N. “An Experimental Study of Group Opinion. ” Futures 1 (June 1969): 282 -288. Delbecq, Andre; van de Ven, Andrew; and Gustafson, David. Group Techniques for Program Planning: A Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi. Chicago, Ill. : Scott Foresman, 1975 Gordon, Theodore J. , and Helmer, Olaf. Report on a Long. Range Forecasting Study. Rand Paper P-2982. Santa Monica, CA. : Rand Corporation, September 1964 http: //www. dse. vic. gov. au/DSE/wcmn 203. nsf/Link. View/D 7 B 9 E 063 A 2 B 4 FFAFCA 25707 E 00248822 EBB 2 EB 2 F 90352 29 BCA 257091000 BF 7 A 6

A Little Short of 25 – 30 Minutes