Decision Maker Panel Key Charts for Covid 19

Decision Maker Panel: Key Charts for Covid 19 Nick Bloom (Stanford), Phil Bunn (Bank of England), Scarlet Chen (Stanford) Paul Mizen (Nottingham), Pawel Smietanka (Bank of England), Jenny Lam (Bank of England) May 2020 Disclaimer: Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Bank of England or its Committees.

Uncertainty around year-ahead sales growth expectations Percentage changes on a year earlier Single month 9 3 month rolling average 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 янв-17 июл-17 янв-18 июл-18 янв-19 июл-19 янв-20

Covid-19 as a source of uncertainty Percentage of businesses 100 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 80 60 40 20 0 Not important One of many Top two or three Largest source of uncertainty

Percentage of firms reporting Covid-19 as top source of uncertainty within survey waves

Date when coronavirus-related uncertainty will be resolved Percentage of respondents 50 April 2020 May 2020 40 30 20 10 0 By Jun 20 By Sep 20 By Dec 20 By Mar 21 Apr 21+

Overall uncertainty Percentage of businesses February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Very low Low Medium Level of uncertainty High Very high

Covid-19 vs Brexit as sources of uncertainty Largest source

Covid-19 impact on sales, employment and investment over the next year Percentage impact of Covid-19 0 -10 Employment -20 Sales -30 Investment 2020 Q 2 2020 Q 3 -40 2020 Q 4 Forecast period -50 2021 Q 1

Covid-19 impact on sales in 2020 Q 2 by industry . . . . Highly consumer facing services Non-food manufacturing & construction Less consumer facing services Essential services -100 -90 -80 -70 -60 Percentage impact of Covid-19 on sales in 2020 Q 2 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0

Expected impact of Covid-19 on sales and employment in 2020 Q 2 by industry

Expected impact of Covid-19 on sales and level of labour productivity, by industry

Impact of Covid-19 on employees, May 2020 Furloughed Unable to work (eg sick, self isolating) Working on business premises Working from home Accom & Food Construction Wholesale & Retail Manufacturing Transport & Storage Real Estate Admin & Support Other Services Prof & Scientific Health Finance & Insurance Other Production Info & Comms All firms 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percentage of employees • Working from home more concentrated in higher productivity service industries 12

Impact of Covid-19 on firms’ demand for credit in Q 2 Percentage of respondents April 2020 60 May 2020 50 40 30 20 10 0 Less credit No material impact More credit - expect available More credit - expect unavailable 13

Disruption to non-labour inputs from Covid-19 Percentage of respondents 70 April 2020 May 2020 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 -24 25 -49 50 -74 75+ Inputs disrupted as a percentage of non-labour costs 14

Subjective Uncertainty by industry 15

COVID uncertainty by industry 16

COVID uncertainty by firm size (employees) 17