December 2002 Section 8 Adaptation Addressing Climate Change

December 2002 Section 8 Adaptation

Addressing Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaptation Climate Change including variability Impacts autonomous adaptation Mitigation Planned Adaptation via GHG sources and sinks Responses

Mitigation will slow down the rate and magnitude of change, but cannot stop it

In fact, temperature will continue to rise for centuries, and sea levels for millennia after CO 2 stabilization

Therefore, we must adapt as well as mitigate • Early actions to reduce risks will likely be less costly and buy more time to adapt • Anticipatory adaptive actions can also reduce risks by preparing for adverse effects and capitalizing on benefits • The more rapid the warming, the greater the challenge to adapt • There will also be residual impacts that cannot be prepared for

What is adaptation? Adaptation is: • an adjustment in practices, processes, or structures of systems to projected or actual changes of climate • that can occur in response to, or in anticipation of, changes in conditions To: 1 Minimize the negative impacts of future climate changes, and 2 Take advantage of new opportunities that may be presented Adaptation is a necessary strategy at all scales to complement climate change mitigation efforts

A critical concept related to impacts and adaptation is vulnerability Vulnerability: Is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate, including climate variability and extremes. Is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

Risk Assessment must take adaptation into account TH 2 TH 1 Coping range TH 1 Climate variable

Some economic considerations for Canada • Between 20 and 60% of GDP is sensitive to the changes in weather and climate • Between 1985 and 1999, extreme weather events caused Canadian economic losses of more than $14 billion, and 240 deaths • The net impact of a global warming on Canada’s GDP remains very uncertain, and depends on the success of adaptation strategies

Adaptation works Old Man River Dam cost in 1990: $430 million Winnipeg floodway Cost today: $330 million

Adaptation also has costs Potential Waterloo to Lake Huron water pipeline: ~ $500 million

There are gaps and uncertainties in adaptation policy development • Policies of the past may not work in the future • Analysis of adaptation issues and options not far advanced • Analytical information has not yet been developed – social – economic – environmental

Hence adaptation is a key part of the response “Many important economic and social decisions are being made today on long-term projects…based on the assumption that past climate data…are a reliable guide to the future. This is no longer a good assumption…” UNEP/WMO/ICSU Conference Villach, Austria 1985