Decarbonizing the Global Industrial Sector Challenges and Opportunities
Decarbonizing the Global Industrial Sector: Challenges and Opportunities Eric Masanet, Ph. D. Associate Professor Mc. Cormick School of Engineering and Applied Science Director, Energy and Resource Systems Analysis Laboratory (ERSAL) Guest Faculty Researcher, Argonne National Laboratory eric. masanet@northwestern. edu http: //ersal. mccormick. northwestern. edu/
Industry has been the world’s largest energy demand sector … Source: IEA World Energy Balances (2017 ed. ). http: //www. iea. org/statistics/onlinedataservice
… and will remain critical for global energy sector decarbonization ETP 2017 Reference Technology Scenario – RTS Source: IEA ETP 2017 Global demand for selected industrial products
How far can technology take us? Global CO 2 reductions by technology area Reference Technology Scenario – RTS 40 WB 2 DS 2 DS 30 CCS 14% 32% CCS Other 0% Gt. CO 2 2 degrees Scenario – 2 DS CCS 14% Nuclear 6% 1% Nuclear 6% 20 Beyond 2 degrees Scenario – B 2 DS Fuel switching 5% 18% Fuel 10 Renewables 35% 15% Renewables 0 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Global population grows from 7. 2 to 10. 2 billion Global GDP increases by a factor of 3. 6 Pushing energy technology to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 could meet the mid-point of the range of ambitions expressed in Paris. Source: IEA ETP 2017 webinar slide deck: https: //www. iea. org/etp 2017/ © OECD/IEA 2017
How can the industrial low-carbon transition be realised? Global direct industrial CO 2 emissions Gt CO 2 cumulative reductions in 2060 12 B 2 DS total 10 Innovative processes and CCS Gt. CO 2 8 Energy efficiency and BAT deployment 6 Fuel and feedstock switching 4 RTS total 2 B 2 DS total 0 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 0 20 40 60 80 100 A number of strategies contribute to industrial emissions reductions – there is no silver bullet Source: IEA ETP 2017 webinar slide deck: https: //www. iea. org/etp 2017/ © OECD/IEA 2017
Aggregated industrial sector energy intensity China 10 India GJ/thousand USD 8 Other non-OECD 6 4 United States 2 European Union 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: IEA TCEP 2015 online image repository: https: //www. iea. org/etp/tracking 2015/ 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Other OECD
U. S. DOE Energy Savings Audits (ESAs) Performed Total 871 ESAs (Year 2006 – 2010)
Total identified energy cost savings = $1. 2 Billion per year Total identified source energy savings = 162 TBtu per year Total 871 Assessments (ESAs with summary report) Total identified CO 2 reduction = 10. 2 Million MTons per year Equivalent to taking 2 million cars off the road¥ The amount used annually by 1. 6 million single family homes* Total identified natural gas savings 111 TBtu per year Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Source energy: Energy cost: Implemented: 27. 6 TBtu/year In-Progress: 25. 0 TBtu/year In-Planning: 30. 3 TBtu/year Implemented: $163 Million/year In-Progress: $173 Million/year In-Planning: $252 Million/year Total 624 Assessments (ESAs with follow-up information) Based on different reporting timeframes (6, 12 and 24 months follow-up calls) CO 2 reduction: Implemented: 1. 78 Million MTons/year In-Progress: 1. 52 Million MTons/year In-Planning: 1. 92 Million MTons/year Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory Identified source energy savings for 624 ESAs is 114 TBtu/yr and cost savings are $858 million/yr.
Why are U. S. Industrial Plants Passing on Low-Cost Energy Efficient Technologies? Common barriers to industrial energy efficiency include: • Restrictive budget and fiscal criteria Financial • Energy costs might represent a small fraction of production costs • Short-term revenue generation often takes priority • Lack of cross-departmental cooperation • Lack of staff and management awareness Information • Lack of resources (time, money, and skills) to identify and pursue energy efficiency opportunities • Lack of information on key opportunities for government and utility company policies and incentive programs Source: Russell, C. (2005). Barriers to Industrial Energy Cost Control: The Competitor Within. Chemical Processing. June 8 th.
Why are Large Plants Passing on Low-Cost Energy Efficient Technologies? REASONS FOR REJECTIONS & DECOMMISSIONING TOTAL COST SAVINGS REJECTED AND/OR DECOMMISSIONED $270 Million/Year 1. 2% 0. 8% Initial Investment & cash flow 2. 0% 0. 2% restrictions Unsuitable return on investment 8. 4% 33. 6% 9. 8% Unacceptable process / equipment changes Impractical & disagree Other 10. 8% Plant closure or changes Bureaucratic restrictions 15. 7% 17. 5% Lack of Engineering Personnel Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Source: IEA ETP 2017 webinar slide deck: https: //www. iea. org/etp 2017/
Source: IEA ETP 2017 webinar slide deck: https: //www. iea. org/etp 2017/
Source: IEA ETP 2017 webinar slide deck: https: //www. iea. org/etp 2017/
Carbon capture in the U. S. refining industry: Preliminary results Low cost estimates High cost estimates Source: Yao, Y, Marano, J. , Morrow, W. , and E. Masanet. “Quantifying the Carbon Capture Potential and Cost of Carbon Capture Technology Application in the U. S. Refining Industry. ” International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. Under revision.
Optimising the use of sustainable biomass Bioenergy use by sector Source: IEA ETP 2017 Around 145 EJ of sustainable bioenergy is available by 2060 in IEA decarbonisation scenarios, but gets used differently between the 2 DS and the B 2 DS. Source: IEA ETP 2017 webinar slide deck: https: //www. iea. org/etp 2017/ © OECD/IEA 2017
CO 2 -free steelmaking in Sweden • Iron and steel is the largest CO 2 emitter in the global industrial sector, despite strong historical energy efficiency gains • Hydrogen Breakthrough Ironmaking Technology (HYBRIT) uses a hydrogen-based direct reduced iron process to eliminate direct CO 2 emissions • A pre-feasibility study for a project using electricity -based hydrogen is under way in Sweden and is expected to be followed by a pilot operation through 2024 and a large-scale demonstration through 2035 http: //www. ssab. us/globaldata/news-center/2017/02/27/08/01/the-swedish-energy-agency-is-investing-heavily-in-a-carbon-dioxide-free-steel-industry
Levelised cost of ammonia by process route Competitiveness of alternative routes for ammonia production is dependent on energy price, CAPEX, and utilisation rate Source: IEA ETP 2017
Additive Manufacturing: Hype or Energy System Game Changer? Potential benefits • 3 -D graphical models, parts built in layers • No tools, dies, or forms • Near final shape • Reduced delivery times 75% • Mechanical properties equivalent to wrought • Reduced material use • Reduced inventory • Significant cost and energy savings Additive Manufacturing 0. 38 kg finished part from 0. 7 kg raw material Airbus example (120 brackets) Conventional Machining 1. 09 kg finished part from 9. 7 kg raw material
What’s required? • New bridges between laboratory and decisions sciences • New interdisciplinary training models in technology assessment • Increased funding support for model building and data sharing Source: Huang et al. (2016) https: //doi. org/10. 1016/j. jclepro. 2015. 04. 109.
U. S. Aircraft Fleet Case Study (2015 -2050) Source: Huang et al. (2016) https: //doi. org/10. 1016/j. jclepro. 2015. 04. 109.
Source: Huang et al. (2016) https: //doi. org/10. 1016/j. jclepro. 2015. 04. 109.
Material and fuel saving potential of additive manufacturing of aircraft components Policy and R&D levers for rapid adoption: - Improved surface finish (basic research) - Reduced residual stresses (basic research) - Pilots and technology transfer - Cost and externality incentives for AM adoption Source: Huang et al. (2016) https: //doi. org/10. 1016/j. jclepro. 2015. 04. 109.
Summary • The industrial sector will remain critical to decarbonization, but challenges persist: • Lack of strong policy and financial incentives • Long process equipment lifespans; high capital costs • Real and perceived risk of disruptive technology adoption • Pervasive knowledge and financial barriers • Technology pathways exist, but must be accelerated • New pathways must emerge to reduce heavy reliance on carbon capture • Increased attention, support, and engagement is critical • Public-private partnerships must play a key role
- Slides: 24