Dataset for analysis and Conclusions The historical dataset

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Dataset for analysis and Conclusions • The historical dataset of titles includes core tracking

Dataset for analysis and Conclusions • The historical dataset of titles includes core tracking measures for 722 movies. – Opened between January 2008 – Dec 2012 – Wednesday and Sunday Multi-mode data (75%/25%) – Seven windows per title • Unaided Awareness and First Choice are the tracking measures that best predict box office, and their predictiveness increases closer to release. • Total Awareness and First Choice tend to increase steadily throughout tracking. Unaided Awareness tends to increase slowly at first and more sharply in the final week of tracking. Definite Interest is the flattest of the four measures during tracking. • Growth patterns in tracking data look similar for different genres, seasons, and demo groups. However the absolute median scores for these can differ significantly. NRG Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company

Tracking Correlation to Box Office • Tracking measures are highly correlated to opening weekend

Tracking Correlation to Box Office • Tracking measures are highly correlated to opening weekend box office. - Particularly Unaided Awareness and First Choice - Unaided and First Choice become more correlated with box office at the final tracking window - Total Awareness has a non-linear relationship with box office, so its correlation is misleading (its non-linear predictiveness of box office increases from opening to final tracking) NRG Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company

Tracking Measure Trends – By Quad Median Total Awareness by Quad Median Unaided Awareness

Tracking Measure Trends – By Quad Median Total Awareness by Quad Median Unaided Awareness 12 10 Total 8 MU 25 6 MO 25 4 FU 25 FO 25 2 0 Median Total Awareness Median Unaided Awareness by Quad Weds-3 Sun-2 Weds-2 Sun-1 Weds-1 Sun-0 Weds-0 80 70 60 Total 50 MU 25 40 MO 25 30 FU 25 20 FO 25 10 0 Weds-3 Sun-2 Weds-2 Sun-1 Weds-1 Sun-0 Weds-0 Tracking Date 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Median Definite Interest by Quad Total MU 25 MO 25 FU 25 FO 25 Weds-3 Sun-2 Weds-2 Sun-1 Weds-1 Sun-0 Weds-0 Tracking Date NRG Median Definite Interest Median First Choice by Quad 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Total MU 25 MO 25 FU 25 FO 25 Weds-3 Sun-2 Weds-2 Sun-1 Weds-1 Sun-0 Weds-0 Tracking Date Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company

Tracking Measure Trends – By Genre 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2

Tracking Measure Trends – By Genre 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Median Total Awareness by Genre Action Comedy Drama Family Horror Romance Suspense Weds-3 Sun-2 Weds-2 Sun-1 Weds-1 Sun-0 Weds-0 Median Total Awareness Median Unaided Awareness by Genre 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Action Comedy Drama Family Horror Romance Suspense Weds-3 Sun-2 Action Comedy Drama Family Horror Romance Suspense 4 2 0 Weds-3 Sun-2 Weds-2 Sun-1 Weds-1 Sun-0 Weds-0 Tracking Date NRG Median Definite Interest Median First Choice 12 6 Weds-1 Sun-0 Weds-0 Median Definite Interest by Genre Median First Choice by Genre 8 Sun-1 Tracking Date 10 Weds-2 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Action Comedy Drama Family Horror Romance Suspense Weds-3 Sun-2 Weds-2 Sun-1 Weds-1 Sun-0 Weds-0 Tracking Date Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company

Tracking Measure Trends – By Season Median Total Awareness by Season 16 14 12

Tracking Measure Trends – By Season Median Total Awareness by Season 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Holiday Summer Offseason Weds-3 Sun-2 Weds-2 Sun-1 Weds-1 Sun-0 Weds-0 Median Total Awareness Median Unaided Awareness by Season 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Median Definite Interest by Season Holiday Summer Offseason Sun-2 Weds-2 Sun-1 Weds-1 Tracking Date Sun-0 Weds-0 Median Definite Interest Median First Choice by Season Weds-3 Sun-2 Weds-2 Sun-1 Weds-1 Sun-0 Weds-0 Tracking Date 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Holiday Summer Offseason 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 Holiday Summer Offseason Weds-3 Sun-2 Weds-2 Sun-1 Weds-1 Sun-0 Weds-0 Tracking Date Holiday – Nov. & Dec. Summer = May - Aug. NRG Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company

Tracking Measure Trends – By Sequel 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4

Tracking Measure Trends – By Sequel 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Median Total Awareness by Sequel Non. Sequel Weds-3 Sun-2 Weds-2 Sun-1 Weds-1 Sun-0 Weds-0 Median Total Awareness Median Unaided Awareness by Sequel 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Median First Choice by Sequel Weds-3 Sun-2 Weds-2 Sun-1 Weds-1 Sun-0 Weds-0 Median Definite Interest by Sequel 45 12 10 8 6 Non. Sequel 4 Sequel 2 Weds-3 Sun-2 Weds-2 Sun-1 Tracking Date NRG Weds-1 Sun-0 Weds-0 Median Definite Interest 14 Median First Choice Sequel Tracking Date 0 Non. Sequel 40 35 30 25 Non. Sequel 20 15 Sequel 10 5 0 Weds-3 Sun-2 Weds-2 Sun-1 Weds-1 Sun-0 Weds-0 Tracking Date Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company

Unaided Awareness First Tracking Window Median Box Office Final Tracking Window NRG Final Tracking

Unaided Awareness First Tracking Window Median Box Office Final Tracking Window NRG Final Tracking Window 0 -1 2 3 -4 5 -6 7 -9 10+ $10. 5 MM $18. 6 MM $31. 0 MM $56. 2 MM $65. 9 MM $147. 4 MM 0 -7 8 -12 13 -17 18 -14 25 -34 35+ $5. 4 MM $13. 5 MM $23. 5 MM $39. 6 MM $65. 2 MM $152. 3 MM Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company

First Choice First Tracking Window Median Box Office Final Tracking Window NRG Final Tracking

First Choice First Tracking Window Median Box Office Final Tracking Window NRG Final Tracking Window 0 -2 3 -5 6 -8 9 -11 12 -17 18+ $8. 5 MM $19. 5 MM $35. 7 MM $45. 8 MM $66. 6 MM $145. 1 MM 0 -5 6 -9 10 -14 15 -19 20 -29 30+ $6. 2 MM $15. 8 MM $27. 8 MM $41. 2 MM $71. 0 MM $152. 3 MM Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company

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Chapter 10 Introductions and Conclusions Introductions and ConclusionsChapter 10 Introductions and Conclusions Introductions and Conclusions
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Conclusions and Inferences Conclusions and Inferences When youConclusions and Inferences Conclusions and Inferences When you
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Historical Movement Historical Movement Basis of historical movementHistorical Movement Historical Movement Basis of historical movement
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