Databased Decision Making Analyzing Enrollment Data PPS Enrollment

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Data-based Decision Making: Analyzing Enrollment Data

Data-based Decision Making: Analyzing Enrollment Data

PPS Enrollment Trends: 1995 -2004 Enrollment estimated to level off to about 44, 000

PPS Enrollment Trends: 1995 -2004 Enrollment estimated to level off to about 44, 000 students by 2010* *Population Research Center, Portland State University, August 2004

PPS Enrollment Trends for Elementary Schools: 1995 -2004

PPS Enrollment Trends for Elementary Schools: 1995 -2004

PPS Enrollment Trends for Middle Schools: 1995 -2004

PPS Enrollment Trends for Middle Schools: 1995 -2004

PPS Enrollment Trends for High Schools: 1995 -2004

PPS Enrollment Trends for High Schools: 1995 -2004

Elementary Schools with Major Enrollment Shifts Capitol Hill – 9. 6% Boise Eliot –

Elementary Schools with Major Enrollment Shifts Capitol Hill – 9. 6% Boise Eliot – 10. 3% Chief Joseph – 12. 0% Vernon – 13. 3 % Lee – 14. 0% Scott – 14. 3% Creston – 18. 3% Kenton – 25. 3% Applegate – 30. 8% Forest Park – 13. 3% Hayhurst – 66. 5% Sunnyside Environ. – 126. 1%

Middle Schools with Major Enrollment Shifts Fernwood – 9. 6% Ockley Green – 9.

Middle Schools with Major Enrollment Shifts Fernwood – 9. 6% Ockley Green – 9. 8% Gregory Heights – 12. 4% Whitaker – 14. 3% Tubman – 20. 6%

What is causing declines in enrollment? Decrease in births rate since 1981, (constant 5,

What is causing declines in enrollment? Decrease in births rate since 1981, (constant 5, 600 -5, 800 annual birth rate since 1993). Fewer school-age children. Fewer young families moving into Portland than moving out. More affordable family housing available outside Portland. Residents are aging in-place. Barry Edmonston, Population Research Center, Portland State University, October 2004

What remains constant? Most families with school-age children are still choosing Portland Public Schools

What remains constant? Most families with school-age children are still choosing Portland Public Schools – (84% capture rate) Barry Edmonston, Population Research Center, Portland State University, October 2004

What is happening in other districts? Between 1990 and 2000, 7 Multnomah County school

What is happening in other districts? Between 1990 and 2000, 7 Multnomah County school districts gained residents, paced by mid and east county districts. 50% Population: percentage change 1990 -2000 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% RIVERDALE DAVID REYNOLDS GRESHAM- CENTENNIAL BARLOW DOUGLAS PARKROSE PPS CORBETT -20% -30% From Report to the Leader’s Roundtable Update on Multnomah County 3 rd Grade Reading Initiative, Sept. 28, 2004

What is happening in other districts? PPS lost households with children while districts to

What is happening in other districts? PPS lost households with children while districts to the east, led strongly by Reynolds, gained them. 35% 30% Households with children: percentage change 1990 -2000 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% PPS REYNOLDS DAVID DOUGLAS CORBETT GRESHAM- CENTENNIAL PARKROSE RIVERDALE BARLOW -10% -15% From Report to the Leader’s Roundtable Update on Multnomah County 3 rd Grade Reading Initiative, Sept. 28, 2004

Criteria for Addressing Growth in School Enrollments Elementary and middle schools with 30 or

Criteria for Addressing Growth in School Enrollments Elementary and middle schools with 30 or more students above their ADM (average daily membership). High schools with enrollments greater than the ADM used for staffing of 75 or more students. Developed by Dr. Patricia Pickles and Area Directors

Other Considerations Not all positions were allocated given the current financial uncertainties. Staff work

Other Considerations Not all positions were allocated given the current financial uncertainties. Staff work with schools to develop options (such as blends) when enrollment is high at one or two grade levels. Area Directors have discretion to make small adjustments within clusters.

Additional Staff Allocations (To date) School FTE Forest Park Elementary School 1. 3 Franklin

Additional Staff Allocations (To date) School FTE Forest Park Elementary School 1. 3 Franklin High School 3. 0 Grant High School 0. 5 TOTAL 4. 8

Addressing Decreases in School Enrollment: Critical Questions What makes for effective schools (based on

Addressing Decreases in School Enrollment: Critical Questions What makes for effective schools (based on research and good practice)? l Academic programming l Efficient use of resources l Size and learning environment What’s the Tipping Point? l School Initiation and Closure Policy l Implementation Steps