Danica Popovi Faculty of Economics and Center for

Danica Popović Faculty of Economics and Center for Liberal-Democratic Studies WTO: four principles, not just one Lepenski vir, 14 -16 april 2005.

Developments in Serbian foreign trade, 1965 -2004.

Pathological developments in trade shares, 1989 -2004 Table 2. 1. 1. *) Trade share in GDP Actual trade in 1989 Import content Export share Total trade share 48 42 90 Foreign Interrepublican 19 17 36 29 25 54 Trade shares (% GDP) in small open economies 40 -60 80 -120 Actual Trade shares 1998 2004** 26. 2 15. 5 41. 7 52 22 74 Source: Economic Developments in FR Yugoslavia, for 1989; own calculus based on FSE data onwards *) comprises goods and non-factor services; **) including trade with former Yugoslav republics; figures are comparable with the sum of first two columns of the Table.

Low exports, but low import shares also

Public opinion on liberalization l l l The hostile and excessive liberalization Largest liberalization in the region EU and WTO are too far away …

Solution l l Export-led growth FDIs l l Fascilitating exports? Changes in exchange-rate policy? Creating competitive environment? The Government potentials l Influence of lobbying groups Domestic l New lobbying groups FDIs l l EU and WTO

The need for WTO principles … l 4 principles, not just one 1. 2. Freer trade, tarification and reducing tariffs Non-discrimination, MFN l exemptions l l l 3. 4. Free Trade Agreements (FTA) Generalized System of Preferences Barriers against products which are unfairly traded Transparency and predictable policies Encouraging competition

Coordination and preparation l To identify the authorities or institutions within a country that will oversee application and ensure compliance with WTO rules and requirements l Policies that violate WTO principles have to be identified and repealed. l This set of principles, are not just rules but a way of thinking that must adopted and implemented by governments in all areas of activity (economic, regulatory, etc. ). l If foreign trade is the only area being subjected to this set of principles—trade liberalization will not have the effect that WTO Member countries anticipated That is the main reason why trade liberalization of some countries accomplished through WTO accession did not result in those results predicted by conventional economic wisdom.

Kada je ko ušao u WTO. . .

Creating a new public opinion 10 common misunderstandings about the WTO 1. WTO dictates? 2. Blindly for trade? 3. Neglects developoment? 4. Anti-green? 5. Anti-health? 6. Wrecks jobs? 7. Small left out? 8. Tool of lobbies? 9. Weak forced to join? 10. Undemocratic?