Current Surveys of Wholesale and Retail Trade An

Current Surveys of Wholesale and Retail Trade An Overview of the Wholesale and Retail Programs Timothy Winters Service Sector Statistics Division 17 June 2011 0: 00

Overview of Wholesale and Retail Topic Areas § § § § § Importance of Wholesale and Retail Estimates Story Ideas Annual Surveys Monthly Surveys E-Commerce Statistics Survey Processing Benchmarking Data Dissemination Major Data Users 2 1: 54

Importance of Wholesale and Retail Trade Estimates § Provide most comprehensive data available on wholesale and retail activity in the U. S. § Significant inputs into Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates § Estimates influence financial markets § Affect business decisions § Indication of current economic trends 3 2: 51

Retail Sales vs. GDP 4 6: 10

Story Ideas- Wholesale & Retail § Example Headlines: • January Wholesale Trade Leap Confirms Recovery • Here’s Why Wholesalers are Bullish on the Economy • Retail sales show modest increase as gas and food prices eat into disposable income • U. S. Online Retail Sales Grow 16. 1% in 2010 • The Economic Slowdown and Consumer Spending • Top Ten Retail Holiday Trends • Retailers Get Creative with Easter Promotions • The Road to Recovery Runs Through Retail 5 7: 22

Annual Wholesale Trade Survey (AWTS) § NAICS Sector • 42 (Wholesale Trade) § Sample of 8, 000 Companies • Merchant Wholesalers • Manufacturers’ Sales Branches & Offices (MSBOs) § Mandatory survey with high response § Estimates benchmarked to the Census of Wholesale Trade 6 10: 30

Annual Wholesale Trade Survey (AWTS) § Data Items Collected • • Sales E-commerce Sales EDI Sales Beginning Inventories End-of-Year Inventories Held Outside U. S. Purchases Operating Expenses 7 14: 09

Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS) § NAICS Sectors: • 44 -45 (Retail Trade) • 72 (Accommodation and Food Services) § Sample of 25, 000 Companies § Mandatory survey with high response § Estimates benchmarked to the Census of Retail Trade, Accommodation, and Food Services 8 14: 47

Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS) § Data Items Collected • • • Sales Taxes E-commerce Sales Beginning Inventories End-of-Year Inventories Held Outside U. S. Purchases Accounts Receivables Operating Expenses Merchandise Lines (NAICS 4541 only) 9 15: 53

Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey (MWTS) § § § Conducted Monthly since 1946 NAICS Sector 42 (Wholesale Trade) Sample of 4, 000 companies Sub-sample of AWTS Merchant Wholesalers Only Voluntary Survey 10 16: 36

Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey (MWTS) § Data Items Collected • Sales • End-of-month Inventories 11 17: 44

Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) § Conducted Monthly since 1951 § NAICS Sectors: • 44 -45 (Retail Trade) • 722 (Food Services) § Sample of 12, 000 companies § Sub-sample of ARTS § Voluntary Survey 12 17: 55

Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) § Data Items Collected • Sales • E-commerce Sales • End-of-month Inventories 13 18: 30

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services (MARTS) § § § Conducted monthly since 1953 NAICS Sector 44 -45 and Industry 722 Highly Sensitive Indicator Sample of 5, 000 companies Sub-sample of MRTS Voluntary survey 14 18: 42

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services (MARTS) § Data Items Collected • Sales • E-commerce sales § Published on the 9 th workday following the reference month 15 20: 24

E-commerce Statistics E-commerce includes sales, receipts, and contributions from any transaction completed over an Internet, extranet, EDI network, electronic mail or other online system. Transactions are agreements between buyers and sellers to transfer ownership of, or rights to use, goods or services. Payment for these goods and services may or may not be made online. § Two Main Publications: • Annual E-Stats • Quarterly Retail E-commerce 16 20: 37

Annual E-Stats Publication § Published since 1999 § Multi-sector Report • • Annual Wholesale Trade Survey (AWTS) Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS) Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) Service Annual Survey (SAS) § Estimates available • E-C Shipments/Sales/Revenue vs. Total Sales • Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) vs. Total E-C • Merchandise Lines for Selected Retail Industry § Released approximately 17 months after the reference year 17 21: 14

Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Report § § § Published since 4 th Quarter 1999 Part of the Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) Retail Sector Only E-commerce Sales Released approximately 45 -50 days after the reference quarter § E-C was 4. 5% of Total Retail Sales in the 1 st Quarter of 2011 18 22: 40

Survey Processing § Mailout (includes FAXED questionnaires) § Data Collection • Completed questionnaires are mailed and faxed back by respondents • Fax reminders for delinquent respondents • Telephone follow-up for delinquent respondents and edit failures • Internet reporting for MWTS, ARTS, and AWTS 19 24: 28

Survey Processing § Tabulation • Data edits identify cases that are inconsistent with previous reporting or are growing or declining faster than similar cases • Put all responses on a calendar basis • Estimate for nonresponse based on response data 20 25: 31

Benchmarking § Once a year we benchmark the quarterly & monthly survey estimates to the annual survey estimates § The sampling error of the estimates is lower in the annual surveys • Annual samples are larger than the monthly samples • Annual samples are mandatory and have better response § Every 5 years we benchmark the quarterly and annual estimates to the Economic Census 21 26: 49

Data Dissemination § Economic Indicator Releases • Monthly Wholesale Trade Report • Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services • Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales § Other Data Releases • • • Annual Wholesale Trade Release Annual Retail Trade Release Annual Benchmark Report for Wholesale Trade Annual Benchmark Report for Retail Trade Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Report § Electronic • Census Bureau website: www. census. gov tables in Excel, PDF, and text format • White House Briefing Room (for indicators only) • Search Database Tool 22 27: 55

Demo access of data 31: 35

Search Database Tool § Customizable downloads of economic indicator estimates § Excel or text standard formats § Future expansion beyond indicators 24 33: 56

Demo search tool 33: 57

Major Data Users § Leading Economic Indicators – used by policy makers, investors, large companies, consultants, etc. § Users • • • Federal Reserve Board & Treasury – economic trends Bureau of Economic Analysis- GDP Council of Economic Advisors – economic analysis Large Retail and Wholesale Firms – economic conditions, to forecast future demand, and market analysis Financial Markets – Wall Street and other markets Consultants Market Research Firms Academia Media 26 41: 13

Wrap-up and Overview Annual Estimates § Detailed estimates that include additional data items beyond core items § Estimates not as timely § Mandatory response § Large sample size Quarterly/Monthly Estimates § Estimates at a higher level and include core data items § Estimates available shortly after reference period § Voluntary response § Small sample size 27 43: 31

Thank You! § Website address: www. census. gov • Wholesale: www. census. gov/wholesale • Retail: www. census. gov/retail § Contact Information: • U. S. Census Bureau • Timothy. C. Winters@census. gov 28 44: 42