Current Status and Ongoing Development of Blue Sky

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Current Status and Ongoing Development of Blue. Sky Sim Larkin, Robert Solomon (US Forest

Current Status and Ongoing Development of Blue. Sky Sim Larkin, Robert Solomon (US Forest Service) Dana Sullivan, Sean Raffuse, Chris Ovard, Lyle Chinkin (Sonoma Technology) Lamb/Vaughan NASA ROSES Project Meeting UW, April 13, 2007

Blue. Sky Framework WEATHER FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT FIRE INFORMATION REPORTING SYSTEMS FUEL LOADING MET

Blue. Sky Framework WEATHER FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT FIRE INFORMATION REPORTING SYSTEMS FUEL LOADING MET INTERPRETER CONSUMPTION EMISSIONS TRAJECTORIES DISPERSION SMOKE TRAJECTORY & CONCENTRATION PREDICTIONS Framework is • Modular • Open-sourced • Portable 2

Blue. Sky Framework WEATHER FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT FIRE INFORMATION REPORTING SYSTEMS MM 5 WRF

Blue. Sky Framework WEATHER FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT FIRE INFORMATION REPORTING SYSTEMS MM 5 WRF Wildfire ICS 209 FASTRACS LOADING RAZU FCCS Manual Hardy (West) Other NFDRS FUEL MET INTERPRETER CALMM 5 CONSUMPTION EMISSIONS HYSPLIT TRAJECTORIES CONSUME 1. 02 CONSUME 3 BURNUP EPM FEPS BURNUP Idealized profile DISPERSION CALPUFF HYSPLIT SMOKE TRAJECTORY & CONCENTRATION PREDICTIONS Framework is • Modular • Open-sourced • Portable 3

Real-time products using Blue. Sky FCAMMS (5 regional centers, covering lower 48) Blue. Sky

Real-time products using Blue. Sky FCAMMS (5 regional centers, covering lower 48) Blue. Sky + RAINS = Blue. Sky. RAINS Air. PACT 3 & Clear. Sky (PNW, Lamb & Vaughan, WSU) NWS Smoke Forecast Product (lower 48)

Blue. Sky-West Frank Church Evaluation: Findings and Recommendations Bluesky models long-range transport very well.

Blue. Sky-West Frank Church Evaluation: Findings and Recommendations Bluesky models long-range transport very well. 7

Plume Rise • Fires are currently modeled as single plumes, lofting smoke unrealistically high

Plume Rise • Fires are currently modeled as single plumes, lofting smoke unrealistically high and lowering ground impacts • In reality, fires are made of many burning areas lofting smoke to various heights Modeled Reality 8

Fire Information Issues U. S. Fire Report Locations Fire information can be of poor

Fire Information Issues U. S. Fire Report Locations Fire information can be of poor quality Smoke predictions depend on the fire information Courtesy Tim Brown, DRI

Which model is best? Fuel Loadings (even in the same veg type) can vary

Which model is best? Fuel Loadings (even in the same veg type) can vary hugely Light Heavy Photos courtesy Ottmar et al. Emissions based on Fuel Load and Fuel Consumption Model Choices 11

The Next-Generation Blue. Sky Air. Fire, Sonoma Technology, Inc. , and NASA ROSES Grant

The Next-Generation Blue. Sky Air. Fire, Sonoma Technology, Inc. , and NASA ROSES Grant § § § Facilitate sustained operations. Improve inputs and settings. Enhance user experience and access. Add user-oriented functions. Continue benchmarking performance. courtesy W. Hao

Blue. Sky Framework (new) • Revamped code-base (Professional) • More models • More modular

Blue. Sky Framework (new) • Revamped code-base (Professional) • More models • More modular • More reliable • Eliminate variants 14

SMARTFIRE: Incorporating satellite fire data Ground-based systems Satellite fire info (NOAA HMS) Expert Users

SMARTFIRE: Incorporating satellite fire data Ground-based systems Satellite fire info (NOAA HMS) Expert Users (e. g. Incident Command Teams) SMARTFIRE Reconciled fire info including sub-grid fuels and plume information BLUESKY 15

August - September 2005 16

August - September 2005 16

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18 S. Raffuse, Sonoma Tech�

18 S. Raffuse, Sonoma Tech�

Blue. Sky Data Welcome, Sean Raffuse Query My Account Sign Out Overview Animations National

Blue. Sky Data Welcome, Sean Raffuse Query My Account Sign Out Overview Animations National Coordination Weather Related Links User Guide Help Current Tool: Zoom In Overview Map Legend Scenario Advanced PST Advance Hour Modeled Surface Parameter Predicted PM 2. 5 – 12 km Modeled Wind Parameter Surface Winds – 12 km Measured Parameter PM 2. 5 – AIRNow Contact Us Privacy and Security Statistics Go to Default Map Set as Default Map Clear Default Map 19

Summary: Coming Soon This spring: § Reconciled satellite data (SMARTFIRE) § Initial Blue. Sky

Summary: Coming Soon This spring: § Reconciled satellite data (SMARTFIRE) § Initial Blue. Sky Framework rewrite available § Consistent Blue. Sky predictions across all FCAMMS + consistent RAINS implementation Later this year: § Integrated national 36 km CMAQ grid + higherresolution regional FCAMMS forecasts § Revised interface (AIRNow. Tech? RAINS 2? ) § Partnering with AIRNow By next year (? ): § Ability to ‘what-if’ prescribed burns § Ensemble forecasts

The Future? • International? (Satellite fire detects don’t stop at border) • Incorporate all

The Future? • International? (Satellite fire detects don’t stop at border) • Incorporate all fire info sources (SMARTFIRE? ) • Run overall grid (e. g. 36 km CMAQ, other) • Have this feed more regional applications - all in one [AQ need] (CMAQ, WRF-CHEM, other) - smoke management specific (turn fires off/on, etc. . . )(CALPUFF/HYSPLIT)

User Needs 2 Distinct Smoke Forecasting Needs § for Air Quality What is going

User Needs 2 Distinct Smoke Forecasting Needs § for Air Quality What is going to happen? would ideally like 1 number (possibly w/uncertainty or probability distribution) care about all types of pollutants (not just smoke) § for Smoke Management What if? (I do this) (or that other thing) would ideally like to know what if? to a large number of management choices Mostly just care about smoke These two distinct user groups lead to different (but related) systems 22

A Possible Solution Overall National Grid All-in-one (one atmosphere) Coarser grid Regional Grids Higher

A Possible Solution Overall National Grid All-in-one (one atmosphere) Coarser grid Regional Grids Higher resolution • CMAQ • ~36 km grid • 1 run • all pollutants • EPA • NWS • 1 -4 km grids (finer? ) Decisions impacting smoke Regional AQ • CMAQ • all pollutants • 1 run • EPA / NWS / ? Smoke Management • many runs • smoke only • CALPUFF / HYSPLIT • USFS / USDOI / ? 23