CTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna Sustainable Inclusive Growth in
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna Sustainable Inclusive Growth in Brazil: Past Achievements and Challenges Ahead Ricardo Paes de Barros (IAS/Insper), Diana Coutinho (IAS), Marina de Cuffa (IAS/Insper), Samuel Franco (OPE Sociais), Beatriz Garcia (Insper/IAS), Rosane Mendonça (UFF), Laura Müller Machado (IAS/Insper), Camila Soares (IAS/Insper) CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna Brasília October, 2017
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1 Achievements
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements Almost ½ of the reduction in poverty is due to the reduction in inequality
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 1. Achievements
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 2 It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 2. It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction Inequality remains very high
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 2. It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction Evolution of the percentage of the total income going to the poorest 40% and 50% in Brazil Percentage of total income (%) Bottom 50% Bottom 40%
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 2. It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction Severe Fiscal Imbalance
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 2. It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction Total government expenditure as percentage of GDP Distribution of countries according to total government expenditure as a percentage of GDP Percentage of countries
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 2. It is possible to sustain this rate of poverty reduction Evolution of the wage inequality among employees in the public and private sectors Gini coefficient Employees in the Public Sector Employees in the Private Sector
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 3 Required growth and inequality reduction
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 3. Required growth and inequality reduction
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 3. Required growth and inequality reduction
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 3. Required growth and inequality reduction
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 3. Required growth and inequality reduction
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 4 Better Targeting
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 4. Better Targeting “Bolsa Família” Targeting System based on reported income has very serious flaws
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 4. Better Targeting Percentage of the ‘population below the extreme poverty line Age Profile of the Extreme Poverty Rate Mean Age
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 4. Better Targeting percentage of children up to 3 years old Access to Daycare Centers (children up to 3 years old) by tenths of the income distribution: Brazil, 2015 Private Public First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Tenth
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 4. Better Targeting percentage of children up to 3 years old Evolution of the access to daycare centers (children up to 3 years old) by tenths of the income distribution: Brazil, 2001 -2013
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 5 Balanced growth of earnings and productivity
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 5. Balanced growth of earnings and productivity Accumulated growth since 2001 Labor Productivity and Real Labor Income (2001=100) Nota: Renda deflacionada com INPC; PIB com deflator implícito do PIB. Fonte: Renda, Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD/IBGE); PIB, Sistema de Contas Nacionais (SCN/IBGE). Real Labor Income Labor Productivity
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 5. Balanced growth of earnings and productivity Growth in Labor Productivity and Real Labor Income: 1996 to 2003 Labor Income (1996=100) Alignment or misalignment? Labor Productivity (1996=100) Nota: Produtividade definida como PIB real/trabalhadores; Remuneração deflacionada com INPC; Produtividade com deflator implícito do PIB. Fonte: Remuneração, Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD/IBGE); Produtividade, Sistema de Contas Nacionais (SCN/IBGE).
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 5. Balanced growth of earnings and productivity Growth in Labor Productivity and Real Labor Income: 1996 to 2011 Labor Income (1996=100) Alignment or misalignment? Labor Productivity (1996=100) Nota: Produtividade definida como PIB real/trabalhadores; Remuneração deflacionada com INPC; Produtividade com deflator implícito do PIB. Fonte: Remuneração, Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD/IBGE); Produtividade, Sistema de Contas Nacionais (SCN/IBGE). 2011
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 5. Balanced growth of earnings and productivity Imbalance or Alignment Between Labor Productivity and Labor Earnings?
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 6 Productive Inclusion
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 6. Productive Inclusion Generating Persistent Poverty? Labor Marker Difficult in Absorbing Very Low-Skilled Youth
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 6. Productive Inclusion Excess Turnover
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 6. Productive Inclusion
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 6. Productive Inclusion
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 6. Productive Inclusion Average annual growth rate in labor productivity: Latin America 2001 -2011 Latin America without Brazil average annual growth rate (%)
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 6. Productive Inclusion Average annual growth rate in labor productivity: Africa 2001 -2011 average annual growth rate (%)
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 7 Connectivity between education and economic activity
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 7. Connectivity between education and economic activity Average Labor Productivity – GDP per worker (Thousand US$ (PPP) 1990) Evolution of schooling in adult population and labor production (1980 -2010) In Chile, over the past 30 years, productivity growth has been $ 3, 000 per additional year of workforce schooling. Average schooling on adult population (successfully concluded grades)
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 7. Connectivity between education and economic activity Average Labor Productivity – GDP per worker (Thousand US$ (PPP) 1990) Evolution of schooling in adult population and labor production (1980 -2010) Type I: Countries where productivity grows $ 3, 000 per additional year of workforce schooling Average schooling on adult population (successfully concluded grades)
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 7. Connectivity between education and economic activity Average Labor Productivity – GDP per worker (Thousand US$ (PPP) 1990) Evolution of schooling in adult population and labor production (1980 -2010) Type II: Countries where productivity grows $ 4, 000 per additional year of workforce schooling Average schooling on adult population (successfully concluded grades)
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 7. Connectivity between education and economic activity Average Labor Productivity – GDP per worker (Thousand US$ (PPP) 1990) Evolution of schooling in adult population and labor production (1980 -2010) Type III: Countries where productivity grows $ 7, 000 per additional year of workforce schooling Average schooling on adult population (successfully concluded grades)
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 7. Connectivity between education and economic activity Average Labor Productivity – GDP per worker (Thousand US$ (PPP) 1990) Evolution of schooling in adult population and labor production (1980 -2010) Type 0: Countries where productivity doesn’t grow with additional year of workforce schooling Average schooling on adult population (successfully concluded grades)
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 7. Connectivity between education and economic activity Over the past 25 years, Brazil has undergone an unprecedented educational expansion. More than 90% of the countries had a lower progress in this period than Brazil. Annual progress of average shooling (years of schooling) Annual progress of average schooling of the working age population over the past 25 years by country Countries distribution Fonte: Human Development Data (http: //hdr. undp. org/en/data).
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 7. Connectivity between education and economic activity Over the past 25 years, Brazilian growth has been slow. Less than 40% of the countries had lower economic growth in that period than Brazil. Annual growth rate of GDP per capita (GDP/habitant) Annual growth rate of GDP per capita over the past 25 years by country Countries distribution Fonte: Human Development Data (http: //hdr. undp. org/en/data).
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 7. Connectivity between education and economic activity Ration between productivity and schooling progress (%) In Brazil, growth in schooling has not been accompanied by significant growth in labor productivity. More than 2/3 of the countries have translated schooling into productivity better than Brazil. Ratio between productivity and schooling progress over the past 25 years by country Countries distribution Fonte: Human Development Data (http: //hdr. undp. org/en/data).
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 7. Connectivity between education and economic activity Annual growth rate of GDP per capita (GDP/habitant) If Brazil had the same capacity to translate education into productivity as either Turkey or Korea, Brazilian economic growth would have been two to three times faster than it was over the last 25 years. Annual growth rate of GDP per capita over the past 25 years by country Countries distribution Fonte: Human Development Data (http: //hdr. undp. org/en/data).
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 7. Connectivity between education and economic activity Earnings gain due to one additional year of education (%) Evolution of the wage differentials by educational level
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 8 Ageing
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 8. Ageing
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 8. Ageing
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 8. Ageing
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 8. Ageing Number of years for population 65+ to increase from 7% to 14% 21 years Brazil is aging almost six times faster than did France 115 years Source: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D. C. : The World Bank, 2011. p. 12.
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 8. Ageing Ratio between per capita public expenditure with the elderly and the youth: 2010 ratio
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 8. Ageing Percentage of the population below the extreme poverty line Age Profile of the Extreme Poverty Rate Mean Age
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 9 Discrimination
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 9. Discrimination
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 9. Discrimination
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna 9. Discrimination Evolution of the percentage of blacks Percentage of blacks Total population Dentist
CÁTEDRA Instituto Ayrton Senna www. insper. edu. br/catedras/instituto-ayrton-senna/ Núcleo Ciência para Educação
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