CSTAR Collaborative Science Technology and Applied Research Program

CSTAR Collaborative Science, Technology, and Applied Research Program Ingrid Amberger National Weather Service Albany, NY

CSTAR n A cooperative effort of the National Weather Service and the University at Albany n Improving the Prediction of Cool and Warm-Season Heavy Precipitation Events over the Northeastern United States

http: //cstar. cestm. albany. edu/

Apps & Publications Modeling - WRF

Post Event Analyses

ALY Post Mortem Page

Ice Storm December 2008

Eastern Region - SSD Regional Recorded Training CSTAR related

Examining the Distribution of Precipitation with Landfalling and Transitioning Tropical Cyclones in the Northeastern U. S. n Lance F. Bosart and Daniel Keyser University at Albany / SUNY; Albany, NY n David De. Luca and Jared Klein former students at University at Albany / SUNY n David Vallee NOAA / NWS / NERFC Taunton, MA

Precipitation Distribution Relative to Track 65% 17% 10% 6% 2% 52 Tropical Cyclones 1950 -2006 producing 4+ inches of rainfall in the Northeast U. S.

Predecessor Rainfall Events (PRE) in Tropical Cyclones Michael Jurewicz – NWS BGM LOT – Left of Track AT = Along Track ROT = Right of Track

Predecessor Rainfall Events

Warm Season Cutoff Lows in the Northeast Thomas A. Wasula – NWS ALY

Pattern Recognition

Anticipating Mesoscale Band Formation in Winter Storms David Novak & Jeff Waldstreicher – ERH SSD Lance Bosart & Daniel Keyser – UAlbany

Conceptual Models

Conceptual Models

Cold-season Banded Precipitation in the Northeastern U. S. Michael Evans & Michael Jurewicz – NWS BGM

Warm Season Lake/Sea-Breeze Severe in the Northeast n Patrick H. Wilson, Lance F. Bosart, & Daniel Keyser Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany, NY n Thomas A. Wasula National Weather Service, Albany, NY CSTAR-II Grant NA 04 NWS 4680005

Summary Flowchart Is PW ≥ 1 inch at 1200 UTC, and will CAPE be ≥ 500 J kg− 1 by 1500 UTC? Yes No Will the water be ≥ 5°C cooler than the land surface after 1500 UTC? Severe weather highly unlikely No Yes Will there be onshore surface flow ≥ 5 kt by 1500 UTC to persist the rest of the day? Yes Mixed case likely No Lake-/sea-breeze-induced severe weather unlikely Is there a synoptic-scale disturbance present? No Pure case likely

The deadline for submission of abstracts is 4 pm October 26 th