CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Class 9

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Class 9 Errors, Failures, And Risk Keith A. Pray Instructor socialimps. keithpray. net 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 1

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Overview 1. 2. 3. 4. Errors, Failures, And Risks Students Present Assignment Brannen Hough – Patriot Missile 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 2

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Overview 1. 2. 3. 4. Errors, Failures, And Risks Students Present Assignment Brannen Hough – Patriot Missile 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 3

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing What is GPS used for today? – Brian Bates Transportation Infrastructure Aviation ¨ Maritime ¨ Cars and Trucks ¨ Accurate Timing Military Uses ¨ Missile guidance

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Brian Bates

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing GPS Used for Accurate Timing – Brian Bates GPS provides times accurate within a few nanoseconds Currently used to time telecommunications (CDMA cell phones) Could be used for timing the distribution of electric power. As transaction speed increases, this accurate timing may be used for other things (Banking? )

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Brian Bates

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Problems and Vulnerabilities with GPS – Brian Bates Very low signal power Single civilian frequency with known structure Jamming (unintentional and intentional) Human Error Over-reliance ¨ Equipment and design errors ¨ Lack of knowledge or training ¨

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Intentional Jamming – Brian Bates Militaries can use jammers to interfere with missiles Civilians can also make jammers Cheap and small ¨ Spoofing – creating fake signals ¨

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Unintentional Jamming – Brian Bates Solar Flares Small solar flares not very dangerous ¨ Large ones might be… ¨ Large flare predicted for 2011 -2012 ¨ Signal strength down by 90% for several hours

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Doomsday Scenarios – Brian Bates What problems do you foresee if a GPS system were to be jammed or fail for an extended period of time?

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing What can we do? – Brian Bates Know the risks (knowledge is power!) Make receivers that can sense when they are being jammed Backup systems Use of multiple frequencies or increased signal strength

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing References – Brian Bates Oberst, Thomas. "Solar flares cause GPS failures, possibly devastating for jets and distress calls, Cornell researchers warn. " Accessed 4/13/2009. http: //www. news. cornell. edu/stories/Sept 06/solar. flares. gps. TO. html Carroll, James. "Vulnerability Assessment of the Transportation Infrastructure Relying on GPS. " Accessed 4/13/2009. http: //www. navcen. uscg. gov/GPS/geninfo/Volpe%20 Slides. ppt Carroll, James. "Results from a GPS Timing Criticality Assessment. " Accessed 4/13/2009. http: //pnt. gov/public/2008 -04 -ENC/carroll. ppt Torrone, Phillip. "GPS jamming. " Accessed 4/13/2009. http: //blog. makezine. com/archive/2008/07/intentional_gps_jamming. html Cameron, Alan. "Perspectives - June 2008. " Accessed 4/13/2009. http: //sidt. gpsworld. com/gpssidt/Latest+News/National-Space-Symposium. Day-3 -OCX-and-GPS-III/Article. Standard/Article/detail/525875

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Planned Obsolescence Adrian Mejia What is it? Why? More buying ¨ Market-driven ¨ Different kinds ¨ ¨ ¨ Technological Postponed Physical Style Market

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Apple and i. Pods Adrian Mejia Broken click-wheels 25+% in first two years ¨ 40 GB i. Pod ¨ General repair requests 12% i. Pod owners ¨ 6% non-i. Pod owners ¨

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Microsoft and Vista Adrian Mejia Service Pack 3 Blocked file formats Office files ¨ Competition files ¨ Reasoning ¨ Security Criticism ¨ Fix, don’t block

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Alternative Strategies Adrian Mejia Internet updates ¨ New features Open-source Less market-drive ¨ More features ¨

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Works Cited Adrian Mejia Cassia, Fernando. “Open Source, the only weapon against ‘planned obsolescence’”, The Inquirer, March 28, 2007. http: //www. theinquirer. net/inquirer/news/739/1001739/open-source-the-onlyweapon-against-planned-obsolescence <retrieved April 14, 2009> “Computer Electronics – Blu-ray”, Computer Info-Web, http: //www. computerinfoweb. com/computer_electronics/Blu_Ray. php <retrieved April 14, 2009> Egelhoff, Tom. “Planned Obsolescence: A Plan or a Plot? ”, Small. Town. Marketing. com, http: //www. smalltownmarketing. com/plannedobsolescence. html <retrieved April 14, 2009> Emigh, Jacqueline. “Microsoft’s Planned Obsolescence Smacks Office 2003”, betanews, January 2, 2008. http: //www. betanews. com/article/Microsoftsplanned-obsolescence-smacks-Office-2003/1199306131 <retrieved April 14, 2009>

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Works Cited Adrian Mejia “Information about certain file types that are blocked after you install Office 2003 Service Pack 3”, Microsoft Help and Support, March 3, 2008. http: //support. microsoft. com/kb/938810/en-us <retrieved April 14, 2009> Inman, Phillip. “When your i. Pod isn’t all that it’s cracked up to be”, The Guardian, September 30, 2006. http: //www. guardian. co. uk/technology/2006/sep/30/news. consum ernews <retrieved April 14, 2009> Manjoo, Farhad. “The Death of Planned Obsolescence”, Slate, August 11, 2008. http: //www. slate. com/id/2197263 <retrieved April 14, 2009>

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing E-voting – Overview Andrey Yamshchikov Paper-based system Tangible ¨ Paper ballots Counted Optically scanned ¨ DRE (Direct Recording Electronic) System Intangible ¨ Basically a computer ¨ Usually require activation before voting ¨ Some print record corresponding to vote (required in 27 states) ¨ 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 20

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing E-voting – Analysis Andrey Yamshchikov Advantages Theoretically fast and accurate ¨ Trivially customizable e-ballots (language, layout) ¨ Immediate feedback ¨ Disadvantages ¨ ¨ ¨ 10/7/2020 Intangible (unverifiable) records Software issues (fraud, transparency) Hardware issues (insufficient memory, failure) Produced by different vendors Costly © 2009 Keith A. Pray 21

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing E-voting – Examples Andrey Yamshchikov Kentucky, March 2009 Election officials arrested and indicted with fraud ¨ Affected federal, local, and state primaries in 2002, 2004 and 2006 ¨ Diebold Election Systems, 2003 Audited ¨ Uncertified software in 17 California counties ¨ GEMS – Global Election Management System ¨ ¨ 2009 – admitted to “flaws”, ability to ¨ 10/7/2020 Counts votes, produces summary reports of totals Unqualified versions of GEMS were used Drop certain votes Delete audit logs Now, they go by Premier Election Systems… © 2009 Keith A. Pray 22

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing E-voting – Other countries Andrey Yamshchikov Finnish municipal elections, 2008 Piloted e-voting system ¨ Supreme Court overturned decision of Administrative Court, ordering elections to be held again Incorrect voting instructions Lost votes ¨ Ireland, 2004 Proposal for nationwide e-voting system ¨ Protested and postponed due to absence of paper trail ¨ Fall of 2006 toting machines successfully hacked ¨ Fall of 2007 Ireland reverted to “old-fashioned” voting ¨ 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 23

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing E-voting – In Popular Media Andrey Yamshchikov Movies ¨ ¨ ¨ Man of the Year (awful premise, thoughtful message) HBO Documentary: Hacking Democracy Votergate Stealing America, Vote by Vote So Goes the Nation “Something stinks in New Hampshire” Obama won in hand-counted precincts ¨ Clinton won in precincts where computers tallied results ¨ Rigged primary elections result in Obama’s loss ¨ Limbaugh 1, Democrats 0 ¨ Diebold (again) ¨ 2003, CEO announced he was top fund-raiser for Pres. Bush DRE vendors ¨ Generally do not allow any sort of inspections of machines 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 24

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing E-voting – In Popular Media (contd. ) Andrey Yamshchikov Ohio, 2004 Uneven deployment of voting machines in Franklin County ¨ John Kerry lost 17, 000 votes ¨ Federal judge ruled in favor of results ¨ Ohio, later same year “Vote switching” ¨ Warren country officials close early to count votes behind closed doors ¨ Bev Harris of Blackboxvoting. com (Nov 8, 2004) ¨ “I was tipped off by a person very high up in TV that the news has been locked down tight, and there will be no TV coverage of the real problems with voting on Nov. 2. Even the journalists are pretty horrified. My source said they've also been forbidden to talk about it even on their own time, and he was calling from somewhere else. He was trying to figure out how to get the real news out on vote fraud. ” 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 25

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing E-voting – Sources Andrey Yamshchikov Finnish e-voting results annulled. April 13, 2009 <http: //www. effi. org/blog/2009 -04 -09 -EVoting-Supreme. Admin-Court. html> How E-voting Works. April 14, 2009 <http: //people. howstuffworks. com/e-voting. htm> Is E-voting Safe? April 13, 2009 <http: //www. pcworld. com/article/115608 -2/is_evoting_safe. html> Kentucky E-voting Fraud. April 13, 2009 <http: //arstechnica. com/tech-policy/news/2009/03/kentucky-evoting-fraud-manipulated-voters-not-machines. ars> E-voting Undermined by Sloppiness. April 14, 2009 <http: //www. wired. com/politics/security/news/2003/12/61637> Diebold Admits Serious Design Flaw. April 13, 2009 <http: //www. betanews. com/article/Diebold-admitsserious-design-flaw-in-evoting-machines/1237514447> Ireland Cancels E-voting. April 14, 2009 <http: //www. edri. org/edrigram/number 2. 9/evote> Experts Question Clinton's New Hampshire Primary Win. April 15, 2009 <http: //www. alternet. org/democracy/73551/> Votergate Story on National Media. April 15, 2009 <http: //www. opednews. com/wade_110904_olbermann. htm> 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 26

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Unix Millennium bug – Thomas Liu Year 2038 problem Y 2 K 38 Unix systems store time in seconds using a signed 32 bit integer starting from Jan 1, 1970. Rollover date: Jan 19, 2038 GMT 03: 14: 07 04/15/09 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 27

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Unix Millennium bug – Thomas Liu Known problems and worries: • AOLserver • Mortgage calculations • Any other software that needs to add 30+ years to the current date. • Legacy software 04/15/09 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 28

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Unix Millennium bug – Thomas Liu Possible solutions: • Change time_t to unsigned 32 -bit type • Wraps around in 2106 • Use some sort of Big. Int or long • 64 bit systems • Wraps around in 292, 277, 026, 596 04/15/09 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 29

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Unix Millennium bug – Thomas Liu Y 2 K vs Y 2 K 38 • Moving towards 64 -bit systems • Y 2 K – more towards software • Y 2 K 38 – basic system timekeeping 04/15/09 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 30

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Unix Millennium bug – Thomas Liu How can we avoid this? Use large types for storing dates Don’t assume time_t is an int the. Time = time((time_t *) NULL); Don’t assume the base time starts Jan 01, 1970 04/15/09 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 31

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing References – Thomas Liu http: //vancouver-webpages. com/time/Y 2 K 38. html(04. 15. 09) http: //www. 2038 bug. com/index. html (04. 15. 09) http: //www. mailarchive. com/aolserver@listserv. aol. com/msg 09812. html (04. 15. 09) http: //www. opengroup. org/onlinepubs/000095399/(04. 15. 09) http: //members. dslextreme. com/users/rogermw/Y 2038. html (04. 15. 09) http: //it. slashdot. org/article. pl? sid=08/01/15/1928213(04. 15. 09) http: //www. exit 109. com/~ghealton/y 2 k/yrexamples. html#_Bad Guys (04. 15. 09) 04/15/09 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 32

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Overview 1. 2. 3. 4. Errors, Failures, And Risks Students Present Assignment Brannen Hough – Patriot Missile 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 33

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Assignment Read Chapter 7 - Evaluating And Controlling Technology Group Project ¨ For the emerging or new in research information processing technology your group chose: How likely will that technology be adopted at large in the next year? The next 5? The next 10? Predict how the technology will effect people and society at large after 1 year. 5 years. 10 years. ¨ ¨ ¨ 10/7/2020 Base your predictions on the material assembled in the master time line. Feel free to update the master timeline with new material you find useful. Chapter 7 should be very helpful as well. Start blocking out your group’s presentation. © 2009 Keith A. Pray 34

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Overview 1. 2. 3. 4. Errors, Failures, And Risks Students Present Assignment Brannen Hough – Patriot Missile 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 35

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Unintended Consequences Or How to end up a mass murderer without even trying Brannen Hough

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing ● PATRIOT Phased Array Tracking, Radio Intercept Of Target Built as an anti-aircraft missile system Modified to function as an ABM system Deployed during the First Gulf War in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Israel

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing February 26, 1991 WAR IN THE GULF: Scud Attack; Scud Missile Hits a U. S. Barracks, Killing 27 By R. W. APPLE Jr. , Special to The New York Times In the most devastating Iraqi stroke of the Persian Gulf war, an Iraqi missile demolished a barracks housing more than 100 American troops on Monday night, killing 27 and wounding 98, the American military command in Riyadh said early today. Some of those who lived there women, but a military spokesman said he did not know whether any women were killed or wounded. A pool report said the barracks housed the 475 th Quartermaster Group, an Army Reserve unit based in Farrell, Pa. , a small town near the Ohio state line. A television correspondent said he had seen a Patriot defensive missile intercept the Soviet-built Scud, a missile that has been fired again and again into Saudi Arabia or Israel during the war, often on erratic courses. Monday night's attack was the first of the Iraqi surface-to-surface missiles to take a sizable number of lives.

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Greg Siegle, a freelance writer, said he saw "a gigantic explosion" 100 feet off the ground, then another as bits of glowing metal fell to the ground and set fire to the barracks, which is situated in Al Khobar, a city a few miles from Dhahran and its big air base. He said the building caught fire at once. Within an hour, it was a charred skeleton. The American command disputed the accounts of the witnesses. It did not say whether a Patriot missile had been fired, but said the Scud had broken up in flight, as have several others launched in the last few weeks. Baghdad radio, hailing the attack, said the missile struck "the coward traitors who mortgage the sacred places of the nation and turn Arab youth into shields of flesh. " Many of the occupants of the barracks, a corrugated-metal warehouse that had been converted into temporary housing for British and American troops, were eating dinner or relaxing when the missile hit. Others were apparently working out or sleeping, and many survivors wandered around, in sweatsuits or gym shorts, stunned, during the rescue efforts. A military policeman said that most of those in the building were Americans from Army transportation and quartermaster units. Not all of the names of the units were immediately available. In Pennsylvania, an operator taking calls at the Farrell Police Department last night said that members of the 475 th Quartermaster Group came from Farrell and many other towns along the Ohio-Pennsylvania border. The operator said she had seen several families gathered outside the group's headquarters at the United States Army Reserve Center on her way to work. Chaos engulfed the scene moments after the burning debris fell into the converted warehouse. Saudis in the neighborhood followed it down from the sky and quickly ran to the scene, complicating rescue efforts. Mr. Siegle said it took at least 20 minutes for the first fire engines to arrive.

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing GAO United States General Accounting Office Washington, D. C. 20548 Information Management and Technology Division B-247094 February 4, 1992 The Honorable Howard Wolpe Chairman, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight Committee on Science, Space, and Technology House of Representatives Dear Mr. Chairman: On February 25, 1991, a Patriot missile defense system operating at Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, during Operation Desert Storm failed to track and intercept an incoming Scud. This Scud subsequently hit an Army barracks, killing 28 Americans. This report responds to your request that we review the facts associated with this incident and determine if a computer software problem was involved. If so, you asked that we provide information on what the specific software problem was, and what has been done to correct it. Appendix I details our objectives, scope, and methodology. Results in Brief The Patriot battery at Dhahran failed to track and intercept the Scud missile because of a software problem in the system's weapons control computer. This problem led to an inaccurate tracking calculation that became worse the longer the system operated. At the time of the incident, the battery had been operating continuously for over 100 hours. By then, the inaccuracy was serious enough to cause the system to look in the wrong place for the incoming Scud. The Patriot had never before been used to defend against Scud missiles nor was it expected to operate continuously for long periods of time. Two weeks before the incident, Army officials received Israeli data indicating some loss in accuracy after the system had been running for 8 consecutive hours. Consequently, Army officials modified the software to improve the system's accuracy. However, the modified software did not reach Dhahran until February 26, 1991 --the day after the Scud incident.

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Normal operation

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing The range gate error

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing What happened that day

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing My Philosophy Never let your sense of morality get in the way of doing what's right. Brannen Hough

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Class 9 The End Keith A. Pray Instructor socialimps. keithpray. net 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 46

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Risk What is it? Chance of it happening? ¨ Random, Historical statistics, Analysis Give examples of risks with computer systems 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 47

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Predicting Risk What are the factors? Enough data to be statistically significant? Can you reduce or increase your own risk? Chance ¨ Severity ¨ 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 48

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Reliability Of Statistics Are other factors controlled? Is enough time covered? Is all data reported? 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 49

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Cost-Benefit Analysis How much does it cost? What do I get for this cost? 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 50

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Risk-Benefit Analysis What could go wrong? How likely is it? How costly are the consequences? 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 51

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Limitations to Risk-Benefit Analysis Hard to quantify probabilities Hard to quantify costs Who bears the costs? Are the potential benefits worth it? 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 52

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Some Measures Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) Mean Time To Repair (MTTR) 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 53

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Relying Too Much Limits of modeling reality Limits of precision Limits of algorithms Limits of interpretation 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 54

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Value of Intuition Are results reasonable? 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 55

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Producing Good Software Good specifications Good usability Good design Robustness Good implementation Testing 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 56

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Plan For The Long Term Version control Future development New platforms Patches Security Training Customer support 10/7/2020 © 2009 Keith A. Pray 57