CrossFlagship Project Alpine Fault Flagship 5 Pathways to
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Cross-Flagship Project: Alpine Fault Flagship 5 – Pathways to Resilience www. resorgs. org. nz
What is MERIT? Computer simulation model for assessing the economic impacts of disruption events • Based on general equilibrium theory adapted for business disruption response and equilibrium-seeking dynamics • Multi-agent including 70+ businesses/industries, households, government, investors, trade by 70+ commodities • Multi-regional covering 16 regions • Daily time steps over 20 years • Reports direct, flow-on/cascading impacts (value added, income, employment and other indicators) • 3 versions: inoperability (<1 wk), dynamic two-region (>1 wk), Auckland spatially explicit model (50 m resolution) www. resorgs. org. nz
Outage maps Direct impacts e. g. operability & Impacted business MERIT flow-on impacts Reporting
How is MERIT being applied • Single infrastructure disruptions • Electricity (Vector, Transpower), • Port (Lyttelton), Road (Mo. T, NZTA ‘Transport MERIT Online’) • Water (Water. Care, Wellington Water) • Natural hazard event disruptions • • Alpine Fault (MCDEM) Auckland Volcanic Field (AC, AELG) Kaikōura (Mo. T/MBIE/NZTA) Wellington Fault (GW, WELG, etc) www. resorgs. org. nz
Cross-Flagship Project Options Ideas Comments/Risks Update economic impact estimate based on revised infrastructure damage Shows integration of flagship work Industry specific analysis - dairy May depend on willingness of industry to engage Assessment of tipping points and demand / population impacts Population tip-out may not be achieved Tourism module creation Depends on timing and personnel availability Focused assessment on economic impacts in Wellington Depends on availability of disruption data in Wellington for scenario Reconstruction module creation Depends on timing and personnel availability Other? www. resorgs. org. nz
