Crop Market Outlook Wyffels Seed Meeting Algona Iowa

Crop Market Outlook Wyffels Seed Meeting Algona, Iowa Nov. 17, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 Δ 97. 3 95. 4 90. 6 88. 4 0 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 123. 1 158. 1 171. 0 169. 3 1. 3 Production (mil. bu. ) 10, 755 13, 829 14, 216 13, 654 99 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 989 821 1, 232 1, 731 0 Imports (mil. bu. ) 160 36 32 30 0 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 11, 904 14, 686 15, 479 15, 415 99 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 4, 315 5, 040 5, 315 5, 300 25 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 4, 641 5, 124 5, 209 5, 175 -75 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 397 1, 369 1, 359 1, 380 0 Exports (mil. bu. ) 730 1, 920 1, 864 1, 800 -50 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 11, 083 13, 454 13, 748 13, 655 -100 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 821 1, 232 1, 731 1, 760 199 6. 89 4. 46 3. 70 3. 65 -0. 15 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 Δ Area Planted (mil. acres) 77. 2 76. 8 83. 3 83. 2 0 Yield (bu. /acre) 40. 0 44. 0 47. 5 48. 3 1. 1 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 042 3, 358 3, 927 3, 981 93 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 169 141 92 191 0 Imports (mil. bu. ) 41 72 33 30 0 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 252 3, 570 4, 052 4, 203 94 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 689 1, 734 1, 873 1, 890 10 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 105 107 145 133 3 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 317 1, 638 1, 843 1, 715 40 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 111 3, 478 3, 861 3, 738 53 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 141 92 191 465 40 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 14. 40 13. 00 10. 10 8. 90 -0. 25 Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Strength of the U. S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 3. 66 3. 42 Source: CME Group, 11/13/2015 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 8. 32 8. 20 Source: CME Group, 11/13/2015 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2015/16 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2016/17 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thoughts for 2016 and Beyond ØSupply/demand concerns ØFeed and ethanol markets have alternatives (sorghum, wheat) ØExports weaken as dollar strengthens and China slows ØWill El Niño last through our next crop cycle? ØNegative margins for 2015 -2016 crops 2014/15 2015/16 USDA Corn Soybeans $3. 70 $10. 10 $3. 65 $8. 90 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2015/16 2016/17 Futures (11/13/15) $3. 42 $3. 66 $8. 20 $8. 32

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics