Crop Market Outlook Wyffels Grower Meeting Emmetsburg Iowa

Crop Market Outlook Wyffels Grower Meeting Emmetsburg, Iowa Nov. 18, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 88. 2 91. 9 97. 3 95. 4 90. 9 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 152. 8 147. 2 123. 1 158. 8 173. 4 Production (mil. bu. ) 12, 447 12, 360 10, 755 13, 925 14, 407 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 708 1, 128 989 821 1, 236 Imports (mil. bu. ) 28 29 160 36 25 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 14, 182 13, 517 11, 904 14, 782 15, 668 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 4, 795 4, 557 4, 315 5, 132 5, 375 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 019 5, 000 4, 641 5, 134 5, 125 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 407 1, 428 1, 397 1, 363 1, 385 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 834 1, 543 730 1, 917 1, 750 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 055 12, 528 11, 083 13, 546 13, 660 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 128 989 821 1, 236 2, 008 5. 18 6. 22 6. 89 4. 46 3. 50 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77. 4 75. 0 77. 2 76. 8 84. 2 Yield (bu. /acre) 43. 5 41. 9 40. 0 44. 0 47. 5 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 329 3, 094 3, 042 3, 358 3, 958 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 151 215 169 141 92 Imports (mil. bu. ) 14 16 41 72 15 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 495 3, 325 3, 252 3, 570 4, 065 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 648 1, 703 1, 689 1, 734 1, 780 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 130 88 105 98 115 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 501 1, 365 1, 317 1, 647 1, 720 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 280 3, 155 3, 111 3, 478 3, 615 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 215 169 141 92 450 11. 30 12. 50 14. 40 13. 00 10. 00 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Objective Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bu/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bu/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 4. 04 3. 69 Source: CME Group, 11/14/2014 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 9. 97 9. 82 Source: CME Group, 11/14/2014 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2014/15 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2015/16 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond ØSupply/demand concerns ØProjected record corn and soybean crops ØMarkets had adjusted downward to absorb projected supplies ØRecent rebound in prices tied to demand growth ØProjected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops 2013/14 2014/15 USDA Corn Soybeans $4. 46 $13. 00 $3. 50 $10. 00 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2014/15 2015/16 Futures (11/14/14) $3. 69 $4. 04 $9. 97 $9. 82

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics