Crop Market Outlook Women Marketing Grain Meeting Oakland

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Crop Market Outlook Women Marketing Grain Meeting Oakland, Iowa Mar. 14, 2017 Chad Hart

Crop Market Outlook Women Marketing Grain Meeting Oakland, Iowa Mar. 14, 2017 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 95. 4 90.

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 95. 4 90. 6 88. 0 94. 0 90. 0 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 158. 1 171. 0 168. 4 174. 6 170. 7 Production (mil. bu. ) 13, 829 14, 216 13, 602 15, 148 14, 065 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 821 1, 232 1, 731 1, 737 2, 320 Imports (mil. bu. ) 36 32 67 55 50 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 14, 686 15, 479 15, 401 16, 940 16, 435 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 040 5, 280 5, 120 5, 550 5, 450 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 124 5, 200 5, 224 5, 400 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 369 1, 401 1, 422 1, 445 1, 470 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 920 1, 867 1, 898 2, 225 1, 900 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 454 13, 748 13, 664 14, 620 14, 220 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 232 1, 731 1, 737 2, 320 2, 215 4. 46 3. 70 3. 61 3. 40 3. 50 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB 2013 -16, USDA-OCE 2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil.

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 76. 8 83. 3 82. 7 83. 4 88. 0 Yield (bu. /acre) 44. 0 47. 5 48. 0 52. 1 48. 0 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 358 3, 927 3, 926 4, 307 4, 180 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 141 92 191 197 435 Imports (mil. bu. ) 72 33 24 25 25 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 570 4, 052 4, 140 4, 528 4, 640 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 734 1, 873 1, 886 1, 940 1, 945 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 107 146 122 128 135 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 638 1, 842 1, 936 2, 025 2, 125 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 478 3, 862 3, 944 4, 093 4, 205 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 92 191 197 435 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 13. 00 10. 10 8. 95 9. 60 Source: USDA-WAOB 2013 -16, USDA-OCE 2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Corn Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Soy Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Trade Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Trade Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Change in Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Change in Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Change in Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Change in Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Strength of the U. S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Strength of the U. S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 3. 98 3. 87 3. 50 Source: CME Group, 3/10/2017 Extension

Current Corn Futures 3. 98 3. 87 3. 50 Source: CME Group, 3/10/2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 9. 85 9. 62 9. 58 Source: CME Group, 3/10/2017 Extension

Current Soybean Futures 9. 85 9. 62 9. 58 Source: CME Group, 3/10/2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2017/18 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2017/18 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ.

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics