Crop Market Outlook Women Marketing Grain Meeting Oakland
- Slides: 26
Crop Market Outlook Women Marketing Grain Meeting Oakland, Iowa Mar. 14, 2017 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 95. 4 90. 6 88. 0 94. 0 90. 0 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 158. 1 171. 0 168. 4 174. 6 170. 7 Production (mil. bu. ) 13, 829 14, 216 13, 602 15, 148 14, 065 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 821 1, 232 1, 731 1, 737 2, 320 Imports (mil. bu. ) 36 32 67 55 50 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 14, 686 15, 479 15, 401 16, 940 16, 435 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 040 5, 280 5, 120 5, 550 5, 450 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 124 5, 200 5, 224 5, 400 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 369 1, 401 1, 422 1, 445 1, 470 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 920 1, 867 1, 898 2, 225 1, 900 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 454 13, 748 13, 664 14, 620 14, 220 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 232 1, 731 1, 737 2, 320 2, 215 4. 46 3. 70 3. 61 3. 40 3. 50 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB 2013 -16, USDA-OCE 2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 76. 8 83. 3 82. 7 83. 4 88. 0 Yield (bu. /acre) 44. 0 47. 5 48. 0 52. 1 48. 0 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 358 3, 927 3, 926 4, 307 4, 180 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 141 92 191 197 435 Imports (mil. bu. ) 72 33 24 25 25 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 570 4, 052 4, 140 4, 528 4, 640 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 734 1, 873 1, 886 1, 940 1, 945 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 107 146 122 128 135 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 638 1, 842 1, 936 2, 025 2, 125 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 478 3, 862 3, 944 4, 093 4, 205 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 92 191 197 435 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 13. 00 10. 10 8. 95 9. 60 Source: USDA-WAOB 2013 -16, USDA-OCE 2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soy Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Meat Trade Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Change in Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Change in Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Strength of the U. S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Corn Futures 3. 98 3. 87 3. 50 Source: CME Group, 3/10/2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Soybean Futures 9. 85 9. 62 9. 58 Source: CME Group, 3/10/2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2017/18 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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