Crop Market Outlook Crop Advantage Series Moravia Iowa

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Crop Market Outlook Crop Advantage Series Moravia, Iowa Jan. 12, 2017 Chad Hart Associate

Crop Market Outlook Crop Advantage Series Moravia, Iowa Jan. 12, 2017 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist [email protected] edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 95. 4 90.

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 95. 4 90. 6 88. 0 94. 0 90. 0 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 158. 1 171. 0 168. 4 174. 6 170. 8 Production (mil. bu. ) 13, 829 14, 216 13, 602 15, 148 14, 060 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 821 1, 232 1, 731 1, 737 2, 355 Imports (mil. bu. ) 36 32 67 55 50 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 14, 686 15, 479 15, 401 16, 940 16, 465 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 040 5, 280 5, 131 5, 600 5, 500 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 124 5, 200 5, 206 5, 325 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 369 1, 401 1, 429 1, 435 1, 440 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 920 1, 867 1, 898 2, 225 1, 950 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 454 13, 748 13, 664 14, 585 14, 215 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 232 1, 731 1, 737 2, 355 2, 250 4. 46 3. 70 3. 61 3. 40 3. 30 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB 2013 -16, USDA-OCE 2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil.

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 76. 8 83. 3 82. 7 83. 4 85. 5 Yield (bu. /acre) 44. 0 47. 5 48. 0 52. 1 47. 9 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 358 3, 927 3, 926 4, 307 4, 050 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 141 92 191 197 420 Imports (mil. bu. ) 72 33 24 25 30 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 570 4, 052 4, 140 4, 528 4, 500 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 734 1, 873 1, 886 1, 930 1, 935 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 107 146 122 128 130 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 638 1, 842 1, 936 2, 050 2, 100 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 478 3, 862 3, 944 4, 108 4, 165 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 92 191 197 420 336 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 13. 00 10. 10 8. 95 9. 50 9. 35 Source: USDA-WAOB 2013 -16, USDA-OCE 2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Production Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Production Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Production Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Production Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Corn Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Soy Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

South American Weather Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

South American Weather Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Change in Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Change in Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Change in Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Change in Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Strength of the U. S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Strength of the U. S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 4. 03 3. 87 3. 52 Source: CME Group, 1/12/2017 Extension

Current Corn Futures 4. 03 3. 87 3. 52 Source: CME Group, 1/12/2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 9. 91 9. 96 9. 60 Source: CME Group, 1/12/2017 Extension

Current Soybean Futures 9. 91 9. 96 9. 60 Source: CME Group, 1/12/2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2016/17 Crop Margins @ Trend Yields Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2016/17 Crop Margins @ Trend Yields Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2017/18 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2017/18 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ.

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics