Crop Market Outlook Anderson Crop Insurance Meeting Aurelia

Crop Market Outlook Anderson Crop Insurance Meeting Aurelia, Iowa Feb. 21, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 88. 2 91. 9 97. 2 95. 4 92. 0 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 152. 8 147. 2 123. 4 158. 8 165. 3 Production (mil. bu. ) 12, 447 12, 360 10, 780 13, 925 13, 985 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 708 1, 128 989 821 1, 481 Imports (mil. bu. ) 28 29 162 35 25 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 14, 182 13, 517 11, 932 14, 781 15, 491 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 4, 795 4, 557 4, 335 5, 300 5, 400 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 019 5, 000 4, 648 5, 000 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 407 1, 428 1, 396 1, 400 1, 430 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 834 1, 543 731 1, 600 1, 550 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 055 12, 528 11, 111 13, 300 13, 380 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 128 989 821 1, 481 2, 111 5. 18 6. 22 6. 89 4. 50 3. 90 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010 -13 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77. 4 75. 0 77. 2 76. 5 79. 5 Yield (bu. /acre) 43. 5 41. 9 39. 8 43. 3 45. 2 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 329 3, 094 3, 034 3, 289 3, 550 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 151 215 169 141 150 Imports (mil. bu. ) 14 16 36 30 15 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 495 3, 325 3, 239 3, 459 3, 715 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 648 1, 703 1, 689 1, 700 1, 725 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 130 88 90 99 105 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 501 1, 365 1, 320 1, 510 1, 600 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 280 3, 155 3, 099 3, 309 3, 430 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 215 169 141 150 285 11. 30 12. 50 14. 40 12. 70 9. 65 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010 -13 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 4. 53 4. 45 4. 49 Source: CME Group, 2/21/2014 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 12. 94 11. 21 10. 73 Source: CME Group, 2/21/2014 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Costs 98% 81% 57% Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Crop Insurance Corn Soy Source: RMA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2013/14 Crop Prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2014/15 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond ØSupply/demand concerns ØDemand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good ØAcreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go? ØMarkets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term 2013/14 USDA Corn Soybeans $4. 50 $12. 70 2014/15 2013/14 2014/15 USDA Futures Unofficial (2/21/14) $3. 90 $4. 53 $4. 45 $9. 65 $12. 94 $11. 21 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics