Crop biosurveillance hotspot detection for Fusarium Head Blight
Crop bio-surveillance: hotspot detection for Fusarium Head Blight Julio Molineros
Outline • • • Fusarium Head Blight Impact Forecasting Elements of the forecasting system Deployment Hotspots
Fusarium Head Blight • Severity (Index) • Incidence • DON Engle, J. , Lipps, P. , and Mills, D. Ohioline. osu. edu.
Time frame • • 7, 3, 14 before 10, 14 after What about DON? Uncertainty 21 days after Planting Flowering Harvest
Winter vs. spring wheat
Impact of FHB • Loss of quality – Yield, Test weight • Contamination – DON • Additional costs – Costs – Price differential • Insurance Nganje et al. , 2004
Forecast S*H 1*T 3 S*R 2*T 3 W*TH 2 W*H 1*T 3*CORN W*R 2*T 3*CORN
1 Risk thresholds Probability High Critical Threshold Medium 0 Low
Weather • ASOS – Unique weather stations – Quality control • RUC – Radar – Aircraft – Overestimation ?
Deployment Model 2004
Deployment Model 2004
Deployment Model 2004
Experimental Deployment 2005
Persistent hotspots
Components • • Year 0 true values Year 1 Forecasted values Year 1 true values Year 2 Forecasted values
Adjacency
Algorithm
Questions • Can we improve the forecast using Hotspot detection? – Can we use previous true values to correct future forecasts? • How? • Is there persistence over time? Space? • Patterns?
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