Critical Design Review Mission Profile Risk Assessment Cost

Critical Design Review Mission Profile, Risk Assessment, & Cost Analysis Jaret Matthews 2/27/01 1

Mission Profile ERV Earth Launch ERV Earth-Mars Transit November 9, 2011 TOF: 307 Days 2

Mission Profile ERV Mars Arrival CTV Mars Landing September 11, 2012 3

Mission Profile HAB Earth Launch January 14 2014 HAB Trans Mars Injection 4

Mission Profile HAB Earth-Mars Transit E-M TOF: 172 Days HAB Mars Arrival E-E TOF: 793 Days July 4, 2014 5

Mission Profile HAB Landing Surface Stay: 540 Days CTV Launch & Rendezvous December 26, 2015 6

Mission Profile ERV Mars-Earth Transit CTV Earth Landing TOF: 230 Days August 12, 2016 7

Coming soon… ERV Mars Aerocapture 8

Risk Analysis Launch & Landing 1. 3 Fatalities/200 US & Russian human missions 6 Missions lost/200 Us & Russian human missions (All on launch or landing) ~2% HR for each launch and landing ~3% MR for each launch and landing Ø Life critical Ø 2 launches & 2 landings Ø w/o abort ~ 92% Ø Mission critical Ø 3 launches & 3 landings Ø ~ 83% 9

Risk Analysis Transit Ø Solar proton event – mitigated by water shield – negligible mission/human risk Ø GCR – negligible mission/human risk Ø 1 En route Apollo failure Ø Free return minimizes risk to crew ~1% Ø Mission would be lost ~ 2% 10

Risk Analysis Surface Ø Similar to risks on transit ØBreech of hab ØInjury ØPower failure ØRover failure Ø Estimate ~2% HR & ~1% MR 11

Risk Analysis Other Contributors Ø Programmatic Risk ~ 2% MR ØSchedule slips ØNTR Development ØGetting Energia on line ØBudget slips ØUp to 3 Presidents before 2011 – ERV Launch 12

Risk Assessment Ø Launch risk analysis does not take into account abort options – significantly reduces HR 13

Cost Analysis Ø Total Mars program (3 missions) ~ $60 Billion 14