Critical Chain Project Cruise Control for Projects Management

Critical Chain Project “Cruise Control for Projects” Management Skip Reedy Theory of Constraints Jonah TOCICO Certified Critical Chain Project Management © 2012 Skip Reedy 1

Standish Group “Chaos Report” “There is no reliable way to measure project status until it’s too late. ” 2 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Theory of Constraints Dr Eli Goldratt Every system has something that limits it. If you identify the system constraint and help it, you get more output from the system. Critical Chain Project Management This kink is the constraint of this simple system. The constraint of a project is the Critical Chain. Help it to get done faster and the project gets done faster. 3 © 2012 Skip Reedy

PMI A GUIDE TO THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT BODY OF KNOWLEDGE Chapter 6 – Project Time Management Critical Path Critical Chain Method Project Management (CPM) 2 + pages (CCPM) 1 + pages 4 © 2012 Skip Reedy

comment on PMI CCPM forum "Critical chain is crazy. It is based on an assumption that we consistently over estimate durations. My experience is that we typically under estimate durations … then [Critical Chain says to] arbitrarily reduce durations to comply with critical chain thinking …” 5 © 2012 Skip Reedy

What is a Project? “A project is a combination of dependent events and statistical fluctuations, convoluted by human behavior and purported to accomplish a goal. ” 6 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Statistical Fluctuations How long will a project take? Task estimates are needed to plan a project. The estimates together determine the project length. Project managers want their tasks to be on time, because if the tasks are on time, their projects will be on time. 7 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Estimating How long does it take to Catch a Fish? At Pike Place Market in Seattle? 8 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Test your estimating skill! Estimating a task with little information or experience. Write your estimates on the handout page. 1 How long will it take a horse and rider to travel 20 miles cross country? © 2012 Skip Reedy 9

Variation in Tasks Commute to Downtown On-time Probability 90% 50% Occurrences Leave Home An ary n i g ve a Im Cur 60 0 25 50 Minutes 75 Duration Estimate © 2012 Skip Reedy 100 120 10

Duration Estimates for Planning a Project Optimistic 5 days Likely 10 days Pessimistic 20 days Expected 11 5 days 10 days 20 days Project Lengths 40 days 80 days 11 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Probability of a longer task Subconsciously we think the probability curve doesn’t move when we increase the estimate. 12 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Project Scheduling Software Turns estimates into deadlines 1/26 2/9 Like Milestones 2/23 2/10 Like Deadlines 3/8 2/24 3/9 3/22 Software Schedule Project Start 1/26 3/22 Project End 13 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Deadline Management means “Be NOT Late” Long estimates are self-fulfilling prophesies 14 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Deadlines and Convoluting Behaviors Parkinson’s Law Work expands to fill the available time when there isn’t enough to do. A 15 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Deadlines and Convoluting Behaviors The Student Syndrome Effort Due Date Time 16 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Multi-Tasking - is the worst This is how long each task or project should take if full attention is paid to each in turn. Effort on Blue is interrupted by other projects. Blue’s duration Switching projects takes time. 17 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Multi-Tasking demo Delays caused by interruptions and switching tasks Multi-task by writing a letter, number, … M U L T I T A S K 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Total Time required ______ 18 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Multi-Tasking demo Do NOT Multi-task. Write all the letters, then write all the numbers. M U L T I T A S K 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Total Time required ______ 19 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Effort The Student Syndrome & Multi-Tasking Time 20 © 2012 Skip Reedy

The Student Syndrome & severe Multi-Tasking Effort Or maybe like this! Time 21 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Estimates become Actual Durations Our allowances for “stuff” become part of the actual duration Task Estimate is a Number S/W schedules Start & End Dates End Date = Due Date Milestone = Deadline Human Behaviors meet Deadlines Tasks finish when Due Pick a Number, get a Duration 22 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Lates Accumulate Project Start Project Due 3/22 A Late A Pushed C Late A Pushed + C Pushed Project Due Late The probability curve and deadline move as tasks B, C & D are pushed by A. 23 © 2012 Skip Reedy

What do we know! We don’t know when anything will finish. Yet, tasks often get done about when they are estimated. Allowances for delays & problems get used up. EARLY usually doesn’t happen, and LATE often does. Being on time is hard to do. 24 © 2012 Skip Reedy

The Pony Express needs YOU! 25 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Short Estimates The schedule doesn’t fit the business case. Project Duration Business Case This schedule fits the business case. However, each task must start before its predecessor ends. In order to make it work, I’m asking you to use aggressive 50% durations. Critical Chain tasks 26 © 2012 Skip Reedy

The Critical Chain 27 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Good Statistics Help the Pony Express The variability of a series of tasks is less than that of the sum of the individual task variabilities. Series flow time probability Central Limit Theorem 28 © 2012 Skip Reedy

The Feeding Chains 29 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Critical Chain Buffers 30 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Buffer Management Fever Chart Late Due Project Fever Chart Early 31 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Work Rules Critical Chain Project Management Prioritize work (tasks & projects) Use aggressive task estimates Identify the Critical Chain Aggregate safety in buffers Use Buffer Management Work quickly on one task 32 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Multi-Project Critical Chain 33 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Multi-Project Fever Chart 34 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Consider Unloading Ships. . . (Projects) 5 ships + 5 persons @ 5 person-days to unload each = 5 days 35 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Staggering the Projects Put all five resources on ship 1 the first day, ship 2 the second day, etc. Initial Results: Ship New (days) Old (days) Saved 1 1 5 4 2 2 5 3 3 3 5 2 4 4 5 1 5 5 5 0 Nobody loses. Four of five clients done sooner. Cost = $ 0 Continuing Results: Each arriving ship is unloaded in 1 day. 36 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Confluence 37

Boeing Commercial Airplanes Application of CCPM to 777 -300 ER Airframe Design 55% of the Airplane 10, 000 projects 85% of the Airframe 1, 000 people at (peak) 20% larger than any previous derivative $500, 000 program Adapted from a presentation by Stephen R. Johnson 777 Airframe Integration Team Chief Engineer (AFIT) 38 © 2012 Skip Reedy

777 -300 ER Challenges & Results Load data > 2 months late Experienced lead engineers resisted CCPM for more than 6 months 26% faster than its very aggressive schedule 50% reduction* in engineering errors All end-items shipped on time Improved engineering release compliance ~15% * Relative to the last 777 derivative: 777 -300 39 © 2012 Skip Reedy

The Next Derivative with CCPM § 777 -200 LR airframe design was completed 5 months earlier than a very aggressive schedule 40 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Be EARLY, NOT LATE Critical Chain is EARLY 3 Ideas to Use Today 1. The Critical Chain is the constraint. Focus on it so it’s always being worked. 2. Pink Paper Pyramids keep the distractions away. 3. Ask 3 Status Questions: What’s going on? What are you doing about it? and Do you need any help. 41 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Questions? 42

Skip Reedy Skip is certified in Critical Chain Project Management. He is a member of the Project Management Institute and the Theory of Constraints International Certification Organization. He was with Boeing Commercial Airplanes in Seattle as a Manufacturing Engineer and Design Engineer for 8 years and then as an internal CCPM consultant for six years. For the last eight years he is an independent project management consultant with CCPM Consulting LLC. He is a mechanical engineer from the University of Detroit with an MBA from Loyola University of Chicago. He is a Theory of Constriants Jonah and is certified by TOCICO. Skip can be contacted at 480 -648 -1862 skip@ccpmconsulting. com http: //ccpmconsulting. com 43 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Marine Corps Logistics Base TOC & CCPM implementation 8 minute video is available at http: //www. ccpmconsulting. com/marine-corps-logistics-base-albany-ga/ 44 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Traditional Project Management Estimates become NOT LATE Task Estimates Confident estimates are long enough to get the work done, allowing for typical delays and problems. Probability as a Number An estimate is not a prediction. We don’t know how long anything will take. It’s a single number for a task that has the possibility of a range of durations. Crazy Project Management Software Project management software schedules estimates with start and end dates. End dates become due dates, and deadlines. Deadlines must be met. Convoluted Normal Behaviors Parkinson’s Law, the Student Syndrome, Multitasking, Deadlines reinforce be NOT LATEs, not EARLYs Tasks are rarely EARLY and often LATE tasks push successors to be LATEs accumulate. EARLYs don’t. Allowances are Ineffective Allowances for delays and problems (Safety, Contingency, or Buffer time) are effective against being NOT EARLY and NOT LATE. This safety is wasted. Increasing the safety makes projects longer LATE tasks encourage future estimates to be longer. Longer estimates make longer projects. Longer projects struggle to be NOT LATE. Safety in tasks creates longer projects without improving on-time results. 45 © 2012 Skip Reedy

Shameless Advertising oo rie nc ing ab d an d wid t h © 2012 Skip Reedy te lu vo co n f d. I rloa ove hu on s, d ten in you ctu ati ca isti tat ds an en ts am pe ev ex n to i A project is a combination of depende nt y in l flu rh ntl y ll ntl urr e ca se sc Critical -64 pre to ng ! goi e NO r a r is e you nsw ea. Th e m ril. r pe u o ty rst. 1 fi rb a l 91 istu cal e D s. lea oul e, p st f pt m u mo r r te 48 0 ni m ask 62 bra i Fold in at wh 8 -1 8 Ia w kno elp ady alre My Ch ain Fo I Pl no ease td istu rb. b P Tape together close to the corners. If you are delivering money, please interrupt. do ct e j ro dy ee What I am working on is more important than whatever it is you are about to ask me. So don’t do it! n ma Management R ip Suggested warnings: d an r io av h e purported to accomplish a goal. Fold in Sk 110 # card stock works well. Using a straight-edge, run a dull knife along/between the fold lines. y db Original Pink Pyramid 46